Better then two years ago it was stated here that a slow liberation of Idlib was the plan Russia and Turkey had agreed to. It seemed the most sensible when one considered the entirety of the "birth pangs" situation. However, there seemed to be an on line contingent that wanted a full out losing, for Syria, battle. One that would have only seen the US and their PKK allies taking advantage of the resulting chaos. Judging by Lavrov's recent statements.. it seems my assessment of two years ago was correct. We'll start with Lavrov's most recent statements and then stroll down memory lane! 'Russia, Turkey advance in liberating Idlib'
"Russia and Turkey are advancing in the implementation of their agreements on liberating the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib from terrorists, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Monday.
The work in the Idlib de-escalation zone is "the most important area of Russia-Turkey joint efforts," Lavrov said speaking at a joint press conference in Damascus with his Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov."
Lavrov made these statements right in Syria. As would be expected. Since Syria would have been party to this agreement. Syria would have been aware. As had been explained years ago.
"[The two countries] have ultimately clear agreements specifying distribution of responsibilities [in Idlib], suggesting separation of normal, sane opposition from terrorists, the liberation of the M-4 highway, and creation of a security corridor around this highway. All these are slowly but steadily being implemented. There is every reason to believe that we will complete this work," Lavrov said."
If Syria were to simply rush in and battle for Idlib as some persons suggest, the US and their PKK allies would take advantage of the chaos that would surely result. And Rojova will extend ever closer to the Mediterranean. Which is what the US and Israel both want!It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner. That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.
I had left a comment and link to the Daily Mail regarding this news at Syper's- where far too many commenters seem to want a confusing, messy battle in Idlib- Which will only open the doors to the USrael regional remake. As stated above. Every opportunity provided, any misstep will be taken advantage of by the US/PKK parked in eastern Syria. It's what they are waiting for.
Of course, I've long had the view that Syper is a disinfo site. Populated by pro remake trolls pushing the Usrael agenda while claiming to be supportive of Syria.
"My hope is Idlib is cleared and returned to the Syrian state- This will take much wind out of the PKK/US sails in the east. IMO Kurdish ‘negotiations’ with Damascus have been somewhat disingenuous. (Buying time)"
Turkey asked Russia to mediate with the Assad government to avoid conflict- Reads like all parties desire to avoid fighting. I've mentioned this likely strategy in 3 previous posts..And it's the most advantageous outcome to discourage the US and SDF/PKK from entering at the time of Idlib's return.
The best way to deal with the situation is to look to the goal. And do all that can be done to ensure the goal is achieved. Russia and Turkey both understand this. Hence Turkey's willingness to confront HTS, though it's certain neither Turkey or Russia want this confrontation to occur.
In 2018 it appeared there had been an agreement that Syria was a party to. It takes time to change the reality on the ground. Obviously! Lavrov seems optimistic. He's making positive statements right in Damascus. Let's hope all concerned continue to work to some sort of settlement. That said I'm not optimistic, present time, that Syria will take back it's oil rich territories.Not any time soon if ever. Nor will peace come quickly to that war torn nation.Recent related: