climate models
On the likelihood of recent record warmth
by Judith Curry
[O]ur results suggest that the recent record temperature years are are roughly 600 to 130,000 times more likely to have occurred under conditions of anthropogenic than in its absence. – Mann et al.
Climate models and precautionary measures
by Judith Curry
Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb has posted an essay entitled Climate models and precautionary measures. Its short, reproduced in its entirety below (in italics), interspersed with my comments:
Climate models versus climate reality
by Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger
Perhaps the most frank example of the growing disconnection between forecast and observed climate change was presented by University of Alabama’s John Christy to the Senate Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives on December 8.
New research on atmospheric radiative transfer
by Judith Curry
Three new papers highlight how atmospheric radiative transfer, particularly how it is treated in climate models, is not ‘settled science.’
Questioning the robustness of the climate modeling paradigm
by Judith Curry
Are climate models the best tools? A recent Ph.D. thesis from The Netherlands provides strong arguments for ‘no’.
The usefulness of GCM climate models, particularly for projections, attribution studies, and impact assessments has been the topic of numerous Climate Etc. posts:
Applications of subseasonal weather forecasts
by Judith Curry
There is growing interest in the scientific, operational and applications communities in developing forecasts that fill the gap between medium range weather forecasts (up to two weeks) and seasonal forecasts (3-6 months).
Will a return of rising temperatures validate the climate models?
by Donald C. Morton
The coincidence of the current plateau in global surface temperatures with the continuing rise in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has raised many questions about the climate models and their forecasts of serious anthropogenic global warming.
Model structural uncertainty – are GCMs the best tools?
by Judith Curry
Rarely are the following questions asked: Is the approach that we are taking to climate modeling adequate? Could other model structural forms be more useful for advancing climate science and informing policy?