SPR has published a short September update and updated the covid facts summary.
Most Western countries report a covid IFR of about 0.3% in the general population (most recently Switzerland, Iceland and Indiana), essentially driven by the 70+ age group. This value can double or triple if nursing homes are included or if there is a local collapse of health care.
The major issue for the general population, including young and healthy people, is going to be “long covid” and especially the risk of myocarditis (heart muscle inflammation). Covid’s impact on the heart actually appears to be somewhat milder compared to the major flu pandemics of the 20th century, but it is still serious and widespread enough to be of significant concern.
Antibody values in much of previously locked-down Europe and in parts of the US are still very low (lower than 5%) and the risk of a renewed and real increase in infections and disease during autumn and winter is therefore high. Most Western countries pursue questionable face mask and contact tracing policies but still haven’t adopted early and prophylactic treatment.
Update: English → / Deutsch →
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