Attribution

by Javier
Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events are the most dramatic and frequent abrupt climate change events in the geological record. They are usually explained as the result of an Atlantic Ocean salinity oscillation paced by internal variability. Available evidence however supports that they are the result of an externally paced oceanic-sea ice interaction in the Norwegian Sea. A lunisolar tidal cycle provides an unsupported hypothesis that explains all of the known evidence for the 1470-year pacing and the triggering mechanism for D-O oscillations.

by Nic Lewis
[W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

by Javier
Insights into the debate on whether the Holocene will be long or short.

by Judith Curry
We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern ensconced over, and nearby, the Barents–Kara Sea since the 1980s. — McCusker et al.

by Donald Rapp
In a recent paper, Ellis and Palmer (2016) proposed that deposition of dust on giant ice sheets, thus reducing their albedo, was a principal factor in the termination of Ice Ages over the past 800 kyrs.

by Nic Lewis
Was early onset industrial-era warming anthropogenic, as Abram et al. claim?

by David Wojick
Our goal here is to begin to articulate a research program into the role of recent long-term natural variability in climate change.

by Judith Curry
A new study finds that human-caused warming in the west tropical Pacific was not responsible for a series of frigid North American winters experienced over the early 2000s.

by Judith Curry
I could use some help pulling together some graphs for a talk I am giving next week.

by Judith Curry
The National Academies has published a new report:  Attribution of extreme weather events in the context of climate change.

The authors of the report are: