2020 congressional elections

Last nighty, GOP House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, promised his members--guaranteed his members-- that "House Republicans will gain seats.

Trump's approval rating is sinking in every poll published. He's below 40% and dropping-- and a new poll from the Washington Post and ABC News yesterday shows every plausible Democrat beating him in 2020. He's likely to be a deadly drag on the Republican ticket all down the ballot.

Last night, Team Blue was disappointed that their candidate in NC-09 was defeated by Team Red's candidate. In a gerrymandered R+8 suburban/rural district-- where Trump had beaten Hillary 54.4% to 42.8%-- Republican Dan beat Democratic Dan by less than 2 points. Democratic Dan outspent Republican Dan $5,810,131 to $1,471,452.

Three freshmen members of Congress who no one in their right mind will ever accuse of being courageous are Kim Schier (New Dem-WA), Elaine Luria (New Dem-VA) and Colin Allred (D-TX). Schrier's district is 72.3% suburban, the rest being about equally urban and rural. Luria's is over 95% urban and suburban; just 4.5% rural. And Allred's is 100% urban and suburban-- no rural precincts at all.

Air Force One by Nancy OhanianIncumbents usually win reelection. It's rare when they don't. Last cycle showed what happens to incumbents when they are viewed by their constituents as enablers of a disliked president. And if Trump was disliked by voters in 2018, he is positively loathed by voters this year. Last year Republicans lost 42 seats, including 30 incumbents.

Collin Peterson: DRECK!Minnesota's 7th district is as red as it gets. The PVI is R+12 and Obama lost it both times he ran. Trump beat Hillary here-- 62 to 31%. It's about 95% of western Minnesota and borders on North and South Dakota. Folks there gave uo on the corrupted DC corporate Democrats long ago. In the 2016 primary, folks there went crazy for Bernie's populist, progressive reform message.

Mike Siegel, the progressive candidate running for the Austin-to-Houston area corridor seat (TX-10) shakily occupied by Trump enabler Michael McCaul, put the above video together as part of his campaign to bring Texans along on the Green New Deal. It's worth listening and watching. About a month ago, Mike did a guest post here about the Climate Crisis town-hall he organized for September 21 and how environmental, labor and youth groups can work together to pass this existential program.

Rasmussen is so thoroughly tied to the GOP that I rarely mention them and rarely even look at their polls. Trump has often pointed to them as his personal poll and I have often heard that if a candidate pays them, they can get the result they're looking for.

Politicians can label themselves any way they'd like and feel sure few people will challenge them. One of the most conservative Democrats to have served in the U.S. Senate in any of our lifetimes, Joe Biden, announced that he has "the most progressive record of anybody running" for the Democratic nomination. If the word "progressive" meant "conservative" that would be true.

Yesterday Reid Wilson published an early morning post at The Hill delineating "the 10 counties that will decide the 2020 election." I suspect the editor of click-getting came up with the foolish and misleading title.