On Monday we looked at a new poll from Reuters showing that white educated voters who went for Trump in 2016 are less favorable towards him now and plan to take it out on Republican congressional candidates in November. As if that wasn't bad enough for Señor T and the party that has been complicit in everything he's done to turn America against him, Harvard just released its 35th National Youth Poll, examining the political opinions and civic engagement of young Americans ages 18 to 29. They found "a marked increase in the number of young Americans who indicate that they will 'definitely be voting' in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections. Overall, 37 percent of Americans under 30 indicate that they will 'definitely be voting,' compared to 23 percent who said the same in 2014, and 31 percent in 2010, the year of the last 'wave' election. Young Democrats are driving nearly all of the increase in enthusiasm; a majority (51%) report that they will 'definitely' vote in November, which represents a 9-percentage point increase since November 2017 and is significantly larger than the 36 percent of Republicans who say the same. At this point in the 2014 election cycle, 28 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Republicans indicated that they would 'definitely' be voting. In the Spring of 2010, 35 percent of Democrats and 41 percent of Republicans held a similar interest in voting.
Preference for Democratic control of Congress has grown between now and the time of the last IOP poll. In Fall 2017, there was a 32-point partisan gap among the most likely young voters, 65 percent preferring Democrats control Congress, with 33 percent favoring Republicans.Today, the gap has increased to 41 points, 69 percent supporting Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. “Millennials and post-Millennials are on the verge of transforming the culture of politics today and setting the tone for the future,” said John Della Volpe, Polling Director at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. “This generation of young Americans is as engaged as we have ever seen them in a midterm election cycle.The concern they have voiced for many years about the direction of the country is being channeled into a movement that will extend to the midterms elections and beyond.”
Bad news for the GOP? Yeah, but there's more. Now they're worried about the shitty pack of inferior candidates they have running for Senate. David Drucker reported for WashingtonExaminer.com that "Republicans fear the party could blow a golden opportunity to pad its 51-49 Senate majority after watching a collection of underwhelming candidates emerge as the likely nominees in key contests. The Republican Party entered the 2018 cycle threatening incumbent Democrats in 10 states that President Trump carried in 2016. Even as immediate dissatisfaction with Trump quickly threatened the Republican majority in the House, a favorable map acted to shield the GOP from similar headwinds in the Senate."It's funny, 2016 was based on a map that was awesome for Democrats, Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer and Jon Tester blew the opportunity that wass handed to them on a silver platter. The Republicans are doing the exact same thing to themselves this cycle.
Seven months before Election Day, Republicans are worrying about dwindling opportunities as candidates that are some combination of defective, unimpressive and underfunded appear headed toward victory in a handful of GOP primaries.The party has its share of good Senate recruits this cycle in targeted Democratic seats: Rep. Kevin Cramer in North Dakota; state Attorney General Josh Hawley in Missouri; Army combat veteran and businessman John James in Michigan; Gov. Rick Scott in Florida. Minimal resistance to their nomination is expected-- if any.But in other promising races, including in states where Trump’s job approval ratings are solid, the field of primary candidates has left some GOP insiders unenthused. Republicans are monitoring primaries in Montana, Ohio, and Wisconsin before passing final judgment; they’re bullish on Indiana regardless, although they describe that more as an “indictment” of vulnerable Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly.Conditions are even worse in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, two states that have strong concentrations of Trump voters. In Pennsylvania, Republicans have all but written off Rep. Lou Barletta, who is challenging Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) and they have a huge problem in West Virginia-- one that could put the state out of reach.Trump won West Virginia by more than 40 percentage points and he sports an 60-plus percent approval rating there, making Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) extraordinarily vulnerable. But none of it matters if mining executive Don Blankenship wins the Republican nomination over Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrissey.Blankenship was convicted in federal court two years ago of conspiring to violate mine safety standards in an explosion that left 29 West Virginia coal miners dead. No matter; with superior resources and anti-establishment credentials, he could win the May 8 primary.“If that guy gets the nomination forget contesting that seat. It’s like Sharron Angle and Christine O’Donnell all over again.” a Republican operative with West Virginia ties said. This individual was referring to 2010 Senate races the GOP lost in Nevada and Delaware.Angle, in Nevada, and O’Donnell, in Delaware, were flawed candidates with minimal general election appeal. Each lost a race considered eminently winnable in what turned out to be a GOP wave year. Angle and O’Donnell managed to win their respective primaries because their sharp rhetoric and anti-establishment credentials swayed Republican primary voters.Republicans are worried that too many weak candidates, especially in an election cycle shaping up as a backlash against their leadership in Washington, could jeopardize the party’s prospects of maximizing potential gains, despite a map of contested seats that tilts in their favor. Republicans also could find themselves defending as many as four seats.Some Republican strategists dissent from their anxious colleagues. Republican primary voters, they say, are looking for authenticity and aggressiveness. The usual resume that would describe a GOP candidate as top tier-- accomplished, well spoken, genteel-- no longer applies, and won’t motivate base turnout in November.That’s an important factor to consider with Democrats enjoying a yawning enthusiasm gap over Republicans as the midterm draws nearer.“The Republican Party has moved. Everyone wants to look at Trump like he’s an outlier-- he’s not an outlier,” one veteran Republican strategist said. “The Republican primary voter doesn’t like the same old, buttoned-up politician bullshit. That’s over; it’s not going to happen anymore.”The GOP’s candidate recruiting issues are complicated. There isn’t necessarily much the party could have done to avoid them.The party was all set with top tier picks in Montana and Ohio. Then Trump tapped then-Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-MT) to serve as Interior secretary, and Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel was forced to exit the Senate race to attend to his wife’s health issues. And in these and other states, the bench was thin without them, though not empty.In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester could still face a tough fight against one of the two likely GOP nominees, businessman Troy Downing or state Auditor Matt Rosendale. The same might also be the case for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, where state Sen. Leah Vukmir and Iraq War veteran Kevin Nicholson, a former Democrat, are running for the Republicans.Meanwhile, Trump’s choice to replace Mandel in Ohio was Rep. Jim Renacci, and he answered the president’s call when it came. Of course, first he must get through banker Mike Gibbons, who is trying to run as the heir to Trump-- an outsider businessman.
There might be a saving grace for them though. The two likeliest GOP seats to flip blue from red are in Arizona and Nevada-- and Schumer, who never picks good candidates, decided conservatives Kyrsten Sinema and Jackie Rosen should be the next senators from Arizona and Nevada, setting up lesser-of-two-evils campaigns, always a terrible idea. The wave is looking like it will be strong enough to sweep these two inferior candidates into office but you never know with such crappy candidates how many disillusioned voters will just decide top not vote at all.Meanwhile, Democratic voter enthusiasm is still sky high, while GOP desire to get to the polls is still flagging-- even in Florida, where Republican prospects haven't been that bad. Yesterday, in a state Senate special election in Palm Beach County, Lori Berman crushed Republican Tami Donnally (31st District) by a massive 74.8% to 25.2%, the highest share of the vote received by any Florida Democrat in at least a decade. Yes, it's a blue district that no one expected a Republican to win. BUT, the swing away from Trump in the 2016 presidential vote was very significant. In 2016 Hillary beat Trump 61.38% to 36.31%. Trump lost the 31st by around 25 points but yesterday Donnally, the vice chair of the Palm Beach County Republican Party, lost by nearly 50%. Now that's a swing that screams "blue wave!" Donnally, in a prelude to November: "I’m disappointed more Republicans didn’t come out to vote. And I don’t know why." The GOP needs to look in the mirror and figure out why.