wave elections

A wave election shouldn't be that hard to understand. This one is easier than most: voters hate Trump and his enablers and want to defeat them. It has nothing much to do with the lesser evil party. Relatively few people are voting for Biden; everyone is voting against Trump-- and his enablers. Biden wasn't the worst Democrat in the primary; Bloomberg was. But Biden was a close second worst.

The media hasn't been talking about another anti-red wave-- nor even the idiotically-named "blue wave." But, take my word for it, even with the venality and incompetence of the Democratic Party establishment, that is exactly what's headed our way.

Last year, over 40 red House seats were flipped. But, despite all the self-congratulations from the DCCC, that was not a result of anything the DCCC did nor the result of the imaginary blue wave they persuaded a lazy and largely foolish media to propagate for them.

How do you replace Michele Bachmann-- in Minnesota's reddest district? Bachmann's old district (MN-06)-- in St. Cloud and the exurbs north and west of Minneapolis-- has a PVI of R+12. Democrats win the state but Obama lost MN-06 twice and Hillary was crushed there-- with just 33.2% of the vote. When Bachmann was forced into retirement after serious ethics charges, the GOP was determined tp find someone even further right than her.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat Joe Crowley again last nightThe NY Times defines what happened as a wave. It didn't feel like a wave to me last night-- not with Beto, @IronStache, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams losing-- not to mention all those Senate races. But the Democrats did take back the House-- pretty substantially, and appear to have defeated Putin's favorite congressman, Dana Rohrabacher.

Polls are all based on "likely voters." A campaign manager I was talking to last week was in a rush because he was still dragging homeless people onto buses to feed them sandwiches, etc and get them to the early voting stations. Over a thousand. Likely voters? Not a chance. Early voting shows "unexpected" upturns for women voters, black voters, Latino voters and millennials voters. How many extra seats is that worth to the Democrats beyond what the pollsters and prognosticators predicted? 10? 20?

Janet Hook reported for the Wall Street Journal that "Voter interest in the midterm elections has surged to record highs within both parties... findings point to an energized electorate, buffeted by dynamics that bring great uncertainty to the outcome just two weeks away.

Very few voters give a damn about the shitload of crap candidates the DCCC has recruited from coast to coast. The only thing worse than the garbage candidates the DCCC has manufactured-- from ex-CIA spy Abigail Spanberger, who uses Trump talking points in her vomit-inducing anti-immigrant ad, to "ex"-Republican multimillionaires on the West Coast-- are their dreadful Republican opponents.

Total lesser-of-two evils race (FL-26)In August GBA Strategies, working for the DCCC, polled FL-26 voters and found incumbent Carlos Curbelo 7 points ahead of Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

Going Down by Nancy OhanianThe pundit class doesn't remember how different wave elections are. Seats no one was looking at suddenly some into play. Whose war chest is bigger stops being meaningful. TV ads are just as expensive but really unimportant. Even name recognition stops mattering.