Lots of coverage on the Panama Papers, so, no need for me to add any more. From the first day the news broke, it felt like a distraction. The ultra rich hiding their money doesn't seem like anything new under the sun.That said,what's happening with Nagarno Karabakh? Now that looks to be where the action is!A new front in the war to remake the Middle East and the "Heartland" or "The World Island"A theory originating with Mackinder and expanded upon by Brzezinski.This PDF may help a very littleImage borrowed from jay's analysisJay has a related article-Why Does The “War on Terror” Serve Western Policy?So I've been looking at some bits and pieces here and there... Historically Speaking:Stalin’s Legacy: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Nagorno-Karabakh is a highly contested, landlocked region in the South Caucasus of the former Soviet Union. The present-day conflict has its roots in the decisions made by Joseph Stalin when he was the acting Commissar of Nationalities for the Soviet Union during the early 1920s. In April 1920, Azerbaijan was taken over by the Bolsheviks; Armenia and Georgia were taken over in 1921 (By the Bolsheviks) To garner public support, the Bolsheviks promised Karabakh to Armenia. At the same time, in order to placate Turkey, the Soviet Union agreed to a division under which Karabakh would be under the control of Azerbaijan. With the Soviet Union firmly in control of the region, the conflict over the region died down for several decades. When the USSR began to collapse, the question of Nagorno-Karabakh re-emerged. In August 1987 Karabakh Armenians sent petition for union with Armenia tens of thousands of signatures to Moscow. The struggle over Nagorno-Karabakh escalated after both Armenia and Azerbaijan attained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991
And you can read the rest at the link directly above- Not so much Stalin's legacy. As a legacy left behind by the Bolsheviks. Interesting about those Bolsheviks?When I first heard this fighting had broke out. I sat down and looked at a map. Right on the border with Turkey and Iran. That's convenient. Seems to be another way to start weakening these two nations. It's also in Russia's neighbourhood- Any conflict in the 'hood will only work against Russia.Who would want to weaken or create chaos in this area? It turns out just about 6 days ago- John Kerry met with the leader of Azerbaijan. And declares, at that time, that he wants a permanent settlement to the Nagarno Karabakh issue.
“U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry met today in Washington with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to discuss a range of bilateral and regional issues. Secretary Kerry commended Azerbaijan’s role in European energy security as a leader in developing the Southern Gas Corridor. He expressed U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s efforts to become a regional trade hub. Secretary Kerry also thanked President Aliyev for Azerbaijan’s contributions to NATO’s mission in Afghanistan, its support for peacekeeping operations, and its important counterterrorism role. On democracy and human rights issues, Secretary Kerry welcomed Azerbaijan’s recent positive steps and urged further progress.
The two also discussed efforts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Secretary Kerry affirmed U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and underscored our concern about violence along the Line of Contact and the international border. He emphasized our commitment to working with the sides to reach a comprehensive settlement based on the principles of international law, the UN Charter, and the Helsinki Final Act”, U.S. Department of State reported.
U.S. Department of State also distributed John Kerry’s and Ilham Aliyev’s remarks made before their meeting:
SECRETARY KERRY: Good afternoon, everybody. I’m really pleased to welcome somebody I’ve had a chance to meet with a number of times elsewhere, but I’m happy to welcome the president of Azerbaijan, President Aliyev. We have a lot of mutual interests that we are currently working on. We’re very grateful to Azerbaijan’s contributions to peacekeeping, their efforts in Afghanistan. Obviously, Azerbaijan is located in a complex region right now and I think President Aliyev has been very studious and thoughtful about how to respond to some of those needs, particularly with his leadership on the Southern Gas Corridor. This is a very important step with respect to Europe’s long-term strategic interests, and frankly, to try to diversify the sourcing of energy, which is important.We obviously share other interests in counterterrorism. We want to see an ultimate resolution of the frozen conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh that needs to be a negotiated settlement and something that has to be worked on over time.But right now, I want to thank the president for his presence here for the Nuclear Security Summit and for the many courtesies that he has shown recently as he moves to adjust the economic opportunity for Azerbaijan as well as the security relationship with the region. And delighted to have you here. Thank you.
So March 30/2016 Kerry meets with the Azerbajani leadership and bullets begin to fly within days. Coincidence? Or something else? Nagorno-Karabakh is not a localised conflictIt's definitely not a localized conflict. No sireee....
It does not take a leap from reality to see how this conflict could spill over into a bigger war in the South Caucasus. Far from being just a localised conflict watched by many with curiosity on our television screens, the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is actually a tangled web of competing geopolitical interests from across the region.The risk of the war spilling over is real.
This is not about Russia poking Turkey in the eye! The US talking head is spinning that nonsense and it's just that nonsense- Russia has no interest in fomenting war with Turkey-Russia has sold a whole pile of arms to Azerbaijan, so the US presented simplistic narrative doesn't fit.
The South Caucasus is a tinderbox almost perpetually on the brink of igniting. Often it is Russia's hand that is shaping and influencing events in the South Caucasus.
But Russia isn't the only player as the very biased writer finally acknowledges
For the US, events in the South Caucasus can affect regional security, and by extension, the US and Europe's security.
For Europe, stability and security in the South Caucasus matters for energy reasons and for the bigger dream of creating a continent that is whole, free and at peace.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline and the South Caucasus Pipeline - both crucial for Europe's energy needs - run within several miles of the frontlines of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Ah yes a Europe whole and free- That's NATO talk for a Europe under the thumb of NATO. We've talked this topic previously readers. And oddly Hillary Clinton mentioned that at the time of the Brussels bombing- It's a plan. "Toward a Europe Whole & Free" Via NATO global dominanceSame talking head quoted at Al Jazeera- this time Heritage Foundation The Nagorno–Karabakh Conflict: U.S. Vigilance Required
Despite its physical distance from the United States, events in the South Caucasus can affect regional security and, by extension, transatlantic security.
We should understand that if this conflict grows Georgia will be involved. So were talkin' Iran, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan.... This doesn't benefit Russia one little bit.As for the US .... better a war there ,then on American territory (Certainly, I want no part of this and wish Canada would mind it's own business!) *Fighting terrorism: When is a war not a war?- Lies Canada's Government Tells
Remaining Vigilant
What happens in the South Caucasus can have regional, transatlantic, and global implications. While the U.S. has no direct military role in the conflict, it is in America’s interest that the conflict does not spiral out of control. The U.S. should therefore:
- Monitor the situation in Nagorno–Karabakh.
- Show a more visible presence in the region
- Encourage countries in the region to stay away from Russian-dominated organizations.
Karabakh: Not an Armenian-Turkish war
Turkey cannot help Azerbaijan win a war against Armenians. Turkey shouldn’t give this hope to Azerbaijan; Azerbaijan shouldn’t believe that Turkey can provide any serious military support, and Armenia shouldn’t be afraid of a Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance. Karabakh is not a Turkish-Armenian war. Turks are not at war against Armenians.
There is no military solution in Karabakh. Iran shares a border with Karabakh and is therefore an important stakeholder in stability around Karabakh. A new war would affect Iran directly as war in Syria affects Turkey. With projectiles hitting Iranian villages over this weekend, a longer military confrontation between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces would trigger its share of refugee influx.
Iran does not want a pile of refugees heading into their nation
Moreover Iran, where ethnic Armenians and ethnic Azeris live peacefully together, can contribute to the peaceful settlement of the dispute and to building trust between populations divided by the conflict. Turkey should be similarly supportive of the diplomatic and confidence-building efforts rather than be a conflict side.
Related Reading:haaretz
A return to war would destabilise a region that is a crossroads for strategically-important oil and gas pipelines. It could also drag in the big regional powers.....The clashes were around the "contact line," a heavily-mined no-man's land that, since the 1994 ceasefire, has separated the Armenian-backed forces, in the foothills of the Karabakh mountains, from Azeri troops dug into defensive positions in the plains below.
Turkish, Iranian, Azeri FMs meet in Ramsar, Iran
The top national diplomats of Turkey, Iran, and Azerbaijan on Tuesday held a trilateral meeting in Iran to discuss key cooperation issues. Speaking to reporters after the meeting held in Ramsar, Iran on the shores of the Caspian Sea, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said he had discussed "key cooperation issues" with his Turkish and Azerbaijani counterparts, Mevlut Cavusoglu and Elmar Mammadyarov.
And ironically an Israeli made Kamikazee drone has played a starring role in all this
Video footage by Karen Chilingaryan of RFE/RL's Armenian Service on April 4 in the mountainous enclave captured the flight of a drone that military observers say is likely an Israeli-made Harop model.
The footage shows the craft flying through the air, with a distinctive whine heard from many drones, and then diving behind the crest of a hill.
The Armenian Defense Ministry later announced that seven people were killed in what it said was an Azerbaijani drone attack on a bus carrying volunteers to the disputed region.
Nagarno Karabakh could be the spark to a roaring fire. Let's hope the situation cools down very quickly.
