Alabama and Kansas are very different demographically-- Alabama, for example, has a sizable African-American population (26.4%) and Kansas' African-American population is just 5.6%-- but the two states have something very much in common: both are Republican bastions. Alabama's PVI is R+14 and Kansas' is R+13. In 2016, Hillary won just 34% in Alabama and 36% in Kansas. Alabam's politics is based on racism. After the Civil War, when the Democratic Party was seen as the more racist, Alabama elected Democrats to statewide offices. For a century after 1878, Alabama elected racist Democrats to the Senate. Jeremiah Denton, elected in 1980, was the first exception, although was defeated by racist Democrat Richard Shelby after one term-- and Shelby quickly switched parties and became a Republican. Then came racist Republicans Jeff Sessions and then... a break in tradition. Doug Jones, a non-racist Democrat was elected to fill out the remainder of Jeff Sessions term. How did that happen? The GOP nominated child molester and crackpot Roy Moore. Conventional wisdom-- in both DC and Alabama-- says the only way Jones can keep his seat next year is if Moore is nominated to oppose him again, which may or may not happen.Meanwhile, Kansas was admitted to the Union early in 1861 and has basically been a Republican state ever since. The state elected a couple of Populists in the late 1800s and 3 Democrats in its entire history of sending Kansans to the Senate. The last was George McGill who was elected to fill the term of Republican Charles Curtis after he was elected vice president on Herbert Hoover's ticket. Republican Henry Allen was appointed interim senator but by the time the election to finish Curtis' term came along, the 1929 crash had occurred and the state decided to try a Democrat. He was the last one.The state's senior senator, Pat Roberts (83 years old), has been noticeably senile for a some time and he finally announced he's retiring next year.) The Republican Party's first choice was to replace him with former Congressman Mike Pompeo, currently Trump's Secretary of State. He's passed, more or less. There are 5 Republicans competing for the nomination, former football player Dave Lindstrom, Congressman Roger Marshall, state Senate president Susan Wagle, Bryan Pruitt (a random sociopath from Wichita) and... former reviled Secretary of State and general all around racist and Trumpist, Kris Kobach, who lost the governorship to a Democrat last year. No, really:There are 4 Democrats competing for their party's nomination-- GOP-lite former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, former U.S. Attorney for Kansas Barry Grissom, Manhattan mayor pro tem Usha Reddi and frequent failed candidate for various things Robert Tillman.Last night, wealthy far right extremists from around the country gathered at the New York City Park Avenue apartment of lunatic-fringe billionaire Peter Thiel, founder of PayPal. A big time Trump financier for a fundraiser Thiel-- and Ann Colter-- hosted the event for Kobach. Minimum ticket price was $1,000. Kobach is well-known nationally in far right circles as a regular guest pushing racism and xenophobia on Fox and in his hateful column for Breitbart.3 neo-fascists on Park Avenue last nightEarlier yesterday Lindsay Wise reported for the Wall Street Journal that the Democrats have a shot at winning: Kobach. An NRSC poll, examined by The Journal for authenticity, shows Grisson beating Kobach by ten points.
The previously unpublished findings reveal why some Republicans are deeply concerned that a Kobach candidacy could cost the party a Senate seat in Kansas-- and why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been pushing so hard for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a former congressman from Wichita, to challenge Mr. Kobach for the GOP nomination....No Democrat has won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932. But in a statewide Senate race between Mr. Kobach and Mr. Grissom, a former U.S. attorney, Mr. Grissom led Mr. Kobach, 52% to 42%, the poll shows. Every single other Republican tested in a general election scenario led the Democrat by at least eight points.The poll reviewed by The Journal was conducted June 9-11 for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP's campaign arm. It surveyed 600 likely voters in Kansas, including an oversample of 150 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points.The poll found Mr. Kobach's image rating underwater across the state, at 32% favorable vs. 50% unfavorable. And there was a strong intensity to voters' negative reactions to his image, with 39% strongly unfavorable toward Mr. Kobach vs. 15% strongly favorable. Among independent voters, his image rating was a net 24 percentage points weaker than President Trump’s.The poll also showed a generic Republican beating a generic Democrat for Senate in Kansas, 44% to 36%-- suggesting that Mr. Kobach underperformed the generic ballot....An outspoken opponent of illegal immigration, Mr. Kobach drew controversy during his two terms as Kansas' top election official for pursuing contentious measures to curb supposed voter fraud.He announced a Senate run in July, a year after losing the Kansas governorship to Democrat Laura Kelly by 5 percentage points.The polling reinforces the fears of some Republicans in Kansas and Washington that Mr. Kobach could put their party's Senate majority at risk should he win the GOP nomination. There now are 53 Republicans in the Senate. If Democrats win the White House, they'd have to pick up three seats from Republicans to take control of the 100-member chamber. If Mr. Trump wins re-election, Democrats would need to net four seats, since Vice President Mike Pence would hold the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.With a handful of GOP-held Senate seats already considered competitive in states such as Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina, Republicans don't want to have to spend money and resources defending the Kansas seat as well.
Should Grisson or another Democrat win the seat, the media will likely call it part of a Blue Wave, when it is obviously part of an anti-Red/anti-Trump wave. Imagine though, Kansas voters-- plus Coulter and Thiel-- making Schumer Senate majority leader!Congressional Terrorist by Nancy Ohanian
