Though asked as questions both seem to be highly plausible scenarios that explain the why of the US airstrike in Idlib, Syria this past week endA quick recap: 1- Putin and Erdogan Discuss Issues Ahead of Next Astana Meeting2- Putin and Erdogan to Hold Bilateral Talks At MAKS airshow- Featuring 5th Generation Su-57Wondering if the ice cream purchase sealed some sort of a deal? 3- Russia and Turkey Agree to Take Additional Steps to Stabilize Idlib. (No specifics mentioned)Putin & Erdogan at MAKS airshowOr was the ice cream cone simply the sign of a good host?(There was a huge, childish media presentation about this ice cream cone at the MAKS show)Idlib is a serious concern to Syria, Russia, and Turkey. As previously mentioned and contrary to popular spin, Turkey does not control all the rebels in Idlib. Which is why what was going on in Idlib, most recently, was not going to affect the work being done by the parties interested in a resolution of Idlib. For the simple, most obvious reason that a controlled minimally chaotic return of the territory to Syria is in the best interest of everyone, save for Usrael/Kurds and company. That concept has been written about here for quite some time here:August 09/2018: How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib
“It's really much more beneficial for regional stability that the Astana partners work together to deal with the Idlib situation in a more measured, careful manner. That's my opinion. And to my mind it makes much more sense for the actual preservation of Syrian sovereignty.”
This appears to me exactly what Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria are and have been doing. This attempt at a measured careful return is why we get the periodic ceasefires...Cooperating to take Idlib in manner that preserves Syria’s territorial integrity and it’s sovereignty as much as possible. Stops a deluge of refugees from flowing into Turkey. Constrains US involvement, though that’s obviously difficult to constrain. Clearly other players with different plans do not want this cooperation to take place and they are sabotaging the effort. These conflicting motivations explain the most recent US airstrike in Idlib. An effort to sabotage the ceasefire and Turkey's participation, contradicting the repeated US condemnation of Russian supported SAA strikes.
"Inconsistent and contradictory steps that the United States makes in Idlib cannot but cause bewilderment and concern. On the one hand, US representatives ... call for halting escalations in Idlib ... On the other hand, they conduct an airstrike, which results in large-scale damage and victims", the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
The Russia leadership is completely aware that the US is trying to undermine the ceasefire plans that have been worked out, for the most part, by Russia and Turkey. When the US hit Idlib the other day the Russian ministry pointed out that the US had not contacted either the Russian or Turkish military. Turkey’s is supposedly a NATO ally.... Silence from the alt media on this exclusion, of course. Russian statement’s also suggest this strike was an attempt to impede further implementation of the ceasefire
“this strike came in violation of the earlier reached agreements because Washington had not notified Russia and Turkey about its plans”"The Russian military notes that the US has jeopardized further implementation of the ceasefire in the Idlib de-escalation zone and also disrupted it in a number of areas"
Al-Jolani After reading the article linked below it appears to me that undermining the ceasefire agreement and compromising Turkey’s goals per this agreement were sufficiently motivating to the US. The Russian statements re: "the US has jeopardized further implementation of the ceasefire" confirm this idea.The readers digest version goes like this... Turkey was peeling HTS’s support away. Horras al-Din, under pressure from Turkey, declared their defection from Tahrir al-Sham. Tahri al Shams ringleader al-Jolani provides the US the coordinates to bomb Horras al Din leadership to smithereens. Compromising Turkey’s efforts and undermining the ceasefire while sending a loud and clear message to other groups. The extended version at FARS
TEHRAN (FNA)- Ringleader of Tahrir al-Sham al-Hay'at (the Levant Liberation Board or the Al-Nusra Front) Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has collaborated with Washington in the recent air raids on affiliated terrorist groups in Idlib with the aim of defeating Turkey's efforts to dissolve Tahrir al-Sham in Northern Syria.The Arabic-language al-Watan newspaper quoted sources affiliated to Tahrir al-Sham as saying on Monday that the recent US airstrikes against the terrorists' command centers between the towns of Kafraya and Ma'arat Misrin in Northern Idlib were carried out through the intel provided by al-Jolani to the US.They added that he has given the Americans a list of the bases and weapons and equipment caches of Tahrir al-Sham and other affiliated groups, including Ansar al-Touhid and Horras al-Din which had under Turkey's pressure declared their defection from Tahrir al-Sham.The sources said that Washington's military intervention in Idlib after the ceasefire was declared and after the Russian-Turkish meeting in Moscow is aimed at making ineffective Ankara's efforts under the Sochi agreement.Relevant reports said on Sunday that Ankara had promised Moscow to dissolve Tahrir al-Sham al-Hay’at terrorist group in Northern Syria to return to the earlier-agreed Sochi agreement.al-Watan newspaper quoted sources close to the National Liberation Front ( Turkish backed rebels) and Tahrir al-Sham as saying that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has in a recent meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin vowed to dissolve Tahrir al-Sham and other affiliated terrorist groups, including Horras al-Din and Ansar al-Touhid, within 8 days.They said that the ceasefire declared by the Syrian army on Saturday was also in line with the agreement, adding that one of the conditions demanded by Syria was its army's control over a vast area of Hama-Idlib international road.The sources underlined possible opposition of Tahrir al-Sham to Turkey's agreement with Russia, saying that based on the agreement, in case of Ankara's inability to implement its promises, the Russian and Syrian armies will resume their military operations towards the towns of Ma'arat al-No'eman and Saraqib on Hama-Idlib international road.read last few paragraphs at provided link-