A pure lesser-of-two-evils race in CO-06Mike Coffman (R-CO) tries very, very hard to pass himself off as a moderate. It's a farce. Coffman's suburban district wraps around Denver from Littletown and Centennial in the south, Aurora in the east and then Barr Lake and Brighton in the north. The PVI is D+2 and Obama won it both times he ran. Hillary didn't do as well as Obama, but Trump did worse than either McCain or Romney. In the end Hillary beat Trump in the 6th 50.2% to 41.3%-- two flawed candidates who voters didn't like. (Bernie beat Hillary in all three counties that make up the district.) Coffman has survived all the attempts the DCCC has made to dislodge him. This cycle the voters are wise to him and realize he isn't the moderate anti-Trump hero he pretends to be. How independent does this look to you?Yesterday Alexis Levinson, reporting for BuzzFeed News, warned that Trump could send him crashing down. What she doesn't mention is that Coffman is running against the worst Democrat to ever challenge him-- and, in fact, one of the worst Democrats to be running this cycle. Jason Crow has joined the New Dems, a natural place for him. He's certainly from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party and the DCCC tried hard to pass him off as a lawyer who championed "the people," even though he was actually a lawyer for the pay day lending industry. My guess is that he's going to win and go on to be a truly terrible member of Congress and lose the seat to a Republican in 2022, like so many DCCC recruits this cycle. But in a wave elections, it barely matters how horrible the challenger is; he gets swept into office anyway. People in the 6th district want to vote against Trump and they'll vote against his enabler and rubber-stamp instead.
“The Trump effect is very real,” said Morgan Carroll, the chair the Colorado Democratic Party. Carroll is intimately familiar with the unique difficulties Democrats have faced in ousting Coffman: She was his Democratic opponent in 2016, and he beat her 51% to 43%, even as Hillary Clinton bested Donald Trump 50% to 41% in the district....[T]ime has demonstrated how little [Coffman] can hold its own against the din of whatever Trump tweeted most recently, or whatever chaos is emerging from the White House and its orbit.“In a year like this I think you have a lot of independent voters that basically just want to put a check on the president, and they’re going to send that message through those House members,” said former representative Tom Davis, who chaired the House Republican campaign arm.“I try and tune out the president whenever I can, in terms of his tone and saying things that I think are inappropriate,” Coffman told BuzzFeed News.“Unfortunately,” he acknowledges, “it takes a lot of oxygen.”Democrats are hoping to capitalize on that fact. Trump is “certainly a big figure in this race,” Jason Crow, Coffman’s Democratic opponent, told BuzzFeed News in an interview in his campaign office. In 2016, when Coffman spoke directly to the camera in an ad and promised to “stand up” to Trump, a Trump presidency was theoretical. Now, argued Crow, “He’s had two years to fulfill that promise, and he’s broken it." The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has turned that ad into an ad of its own-- splicing Coffman’s words together alongside a calculation from FiveThirtyEight that he voted with Trump 96% of the time. It’s a stat Coffman calls “bogus.”
Coffman is desperate... and lying. His voting record is hard core Trump. Meanwhile Crow says he's "a very different candidate than folks who have run in this race before." That's true; he's barely a Democrat and will undoubtably alienate Democratic voters once he gets into office. "And we’re in a very different world than we certainly have been in prior election cycles." Also true. All the garbage gets swept into Congress... 'til the next midterm. FiveThirtyEight.com gives him an 81.1% chance to win the seat.
