There were a lot of Democrats who won tough primaries last Tuesday, but there was only one that caused an orgy of twitter ecstasy from the DCCC: Petey Pie, Steve Israel's flawed New Dem who would like to get into Congress so he can help the Republicans cut Social Security benefits for retirees while increasing his perceived value as a lobbyist, when he goes back to his original profession. The DCCC celebrated that Aguilar and the Credit Union PAC were able to effectively smear progressive labor lawyer Eloise Reyes so that he was able to eke out a weak second-place victory in the Inland Empire (CA-31) jungle primary. Israel immediately stuck him into the Red-to-Blue program, indicating the DCCC is likely to spend whatever it takes to elect another drugged-up mess to Congress.But Aguilar wasn't the only pathetic loser Israel put into the program. Almost all the candidates he put on the list will fail in November. And, as expected, only the barest minimum of progressives were put on the list-- Pat Murphy of Iowa (in a D+5 already blue district) and Michael Eggman of California (in an R+1 district). Today one of California's most astute political observers said she'd bet me that Aguilar loses in November. I told her it seemed demographically impossible. She said if any Democrat could lose two cycles in a row in a D+5/minority-majority district it is Pete Aguilar. "I bet he blunders into an embarrassing loss," she told me. I doubt she's right… but I didn't doubt it enough to take the bet. Under severe pressure from some big donors, Israel added poor little rich boy/carpetbagger Sean Eldridge (NY-19) to Red to Blue last week. He'll lose for sure.Yesterday's additions were almost all in unwinnable districts. The PVIs and the Rothenberg/Roll Call projections are next to the names:
• AR-04- Blue Dog James Lee Witt- R+15 (safe Republican)• CA-10- Michael Eggman- R+1 (favored Republican)• CA-31- New Dem Pete Aguilar- D+5 (leans Democrat)• IA-01- Pat Murphy- D+5 (safe Democrat)• IA-04- Jim Mowrer- R+5 (safe Republican)• NE-02- Brad Ashford- R+4 (favored Republican)• PA-06- New Dem Manan Trivedi- R+2 (leans Republican)• PA-08- Kevin Strouse- R+1 (favored Republican)• WV-02- Nick Casey- R+11 (leans Republican)
Murphy and Aguilar are the only likely winners, although if Israel is serious about helping Eggman (which I'll believe when I see), he could take out Denham. The rest of these seats are hopeless. Israel also announced 6 new additions to the utterly meaningless Emerging Races List, basically a signal to big donors that the DCCC isn't supporting the candidates. There's only one likely winner on the list, Mike Obermueller, a progressive who belongs on the Red-to-Blue list itself. Israel left off Clay Aiken Friday when the new additions were announced but his name suddenly showed up a couple of hours later. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation.
• IN-02- Joe Bock- R+6 (favored Republican)• KY-06- Elisabeth Jensen- R+9 (safe Republican)• MN-02- Mike Obermueller- R+2 (leans Republican)• NC-02 Clay Aiken- R+10 (safe Republican)• ND-AL- George Sinner- R+10 (safe Republican)• WV-01- Glen Gainer- R+14 (safe Republican)
Israel (and Wasserman Schultz), having already made sure that their pal Ilean Ros Lehtinen will face no opposition this cycle (in a blue district ripe for change), persists in ignoring the most vulnerable district in Michigan, MI-06, a district with an R+1 PVI and a viable challenger, Paul Clements who Israel is working furiously to bury and make invisible to the Beltway media. Sierra Club, though, has already endorsed, as has Blue America. Hopefully the Congressional Progressive Caucus, the PCCC, DFA and MoveOn will catch on to what Israel is trying to do. Meanwhile, if you'd like to help an actual progressive win a House seat, you can contribute to Clements' campaign here