Triage-- another one bites, another one bites, another one bites the dust. The NRCC, looking to toss dead-weight overboard, pulled all their remains broadcast ads for incumbent Keith Rothfus in PA-17. Under the newly drawn boundaries the district has an R+3 PVI and Obama would have lost it both times. Trump beat Hillary in those boundaries 49.4% to 46.8%. But district polling shows virtually no path to victory for incumbent Keith Rothfus, a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler at a time when it isn't viable to be a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler. The last public poll of the district, by Monmouth, game Conor Lamb a 12-point lead over Rothfus. A Republican Hill chief of staff told me, on condition of anonymity, that "if they're already pulling the plug on incumbents in R+3 districts that Trump won by 3 points, we are so fucking doomed... I don't want to think about how many seats we're going to lose in Pennsylvania. By Halloween they'll be pulling the plug on Smucker and Perry too."I'm glad he raised that question, because it's just where I wanted to take this tonight. Yesterday, the Allentown Morning Call released a statewide poll of likely voters by Muhlenberg College. Here are the top line results:
• With less than two months remaining before the much anticipated 2018 elections Democratic candidates are in strong positions across an array of races within Pennsylvania.• Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf has retained a solid leads over State Senator Scott Wagner in his bid to win a second term as the Commonwealth’s chief executive, with the Democrat maintaining a 55%-36% lead over his Republican challenger.• In the United States Senate race in Pennsylvania Democrat incumbent Bob Casey Jr. maintains a substantial 53%-35% lead over his Republican challenger Congressman Lou Barletta.• In a generic ballot in the midterm congressional elections in Pennsylvania the state’s voters continue to favor Democrats over Republican candidates with 50% of voters preferring the Democrat in their district compared with 39% supporting a Republican.• President Trump’s job approval among likely voters in the Commonwealth appears to be a drag on Republicans on the November ballot with a majority (55%) disapproving of his performance as President.
Unexpectedly, Trump didn't do badly in Pennsylvania. If Russia monkeyed with voting machines in precincts in a few targeted counties in a few targeted states last cycle, Pennsylvania was certainly one. He beat Hillary 2,970,733 (48.18%) to 2,926,441 (47.46%). Right now Pennsylvania's congressional delegation has 12 Republicans and 6 Democrats. That's going to change very drastically in January when the new Congress is sworn in. My predictions (if the election were held today):
• PA-01 toss-up Brian Fitzpatrick (R)- Scott Wallace (D)• PA-02 Brendan Boyle (D)• PA-03 Dwight Evans (D)• PA-04 Madeleine Dean (D)• PA-05 Mary Scanlon (D)• PA-06 Chrissy Houlahan (D)• PA-07 Susan Wild (D)• PA-08 Matt Cartwright (D)• PA-09 Dan Meuser (R)• PA-10 toss-up Scott Perry (R)- George Scott (D)• PA-11 toss-up Lloyd Smucker (R)- Jess King (D)• PA-12 Tom Marino (R)• PA-13 John Joyce (R)• PA-14 Guy Reschenthaler (R)• PA-15 Glenn Thompson (R)• PA-16 Mike Kelly (R)• PA-17 Conor Lamb (D)• PA-18 Mike Doyle (D)
So right nw it looks like 9 Democrats and 6 Republicans plus 3 toss-ups, one in blue-leaning territory, which I'm tempted to say Democrat Scott Wallace can win and two in red territory that may well split-- Jess King (D) and Scott Perry (R). These are the statewide generic congressional results:
