All content tagged: 2018 congressional races

Down With Tyranny - 2019-05-30 - Original post - cached version

Last night I had a  long working-dinner with a world-famous author and neuroscientist whose new book on the aging brain is coming out early next year. He was explaining to me why the average person reports that their happiest years were around 80, if they live that long. There were quite a few...

Down With Tyranny - 2019-02-15 - Original post - cached version

Bloomberg hates Trump. Very nice. Congratulations. He spends money expressing that hatred and plans to spend a lot more. Wonderful. If you run into him, you might say, "your country is grateful, Mr. Bloomberg." But that doesn't mean it's time for the country to saddle itself with...

Down With Tyranny - 2019-02-08 - Original post - cached version
The worst new senator (AZ) and worst new House member (NJ)

First the good news: Although there haven't really been enough controversial votes yet to definitively analyze the voting records of the congressional freshman class, there are mostly pretty good signs. With every day that...

Down With Tyranny - 2019-01-24 - Original post - cached version
Joe Biden by Nancy Ohanian

Matt Longjohn was a good solid progressive candidate last year in MI-06, the southwest Michigan district that is centered on Kalamazoo and includes all or part of 6 counties: Kalamazoo (the biggest and overwhelmingly blue), Berrien, Allegan, Van Buren, St....

Down With Tyranny - 2019-01-08 - Original post - cached version

Both parties suck and one of the themes of DWT for the past decade has been that the Democrats are simply the lesser of two evils-- sometimes not even that. The 2018 elections were not a "blue wave." Few people were excited about what the Democrats were offering. 2018 was simply an...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-30 - Original post - cached version

An Associated Press story on Friday, Trump's Presidency has Changed Washington, Defied Convention, sounds kind of good-- but is kind of horrible. The ignoramus Putin left, like a stinking pile of manure, on the White House steps, has blundered his way through 2 years of chaos and...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-29 - Original post - cached version
Can Nunes survive another cycle? That may depend on DCCC recruitment

In November, there was no Republican running for California's U.S. Senate seat-- just a conservative Democrat and a progressive Democrat. Many Republicans sat out the race; others voted for incumbent Dianne Feinstein...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-27 - Original post - cached version

Monday, the Cook Report listed 50 interesting facts about last month's midterm elections. Here are the ones I found most interesting, some combined:

It was the highest turnout in a midterm election since 1914 and the first time a majority of eligible voters (50.3%) cast ballots...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-23 - Original post - cached version
In 2016 Hillary scored 32.4% in UT-04. Last month, McAdams took 50.1%

Last week, the National Journal's politics editor, Josh Kraushaar, tweeted about the DCCC' post-election analysis by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. The report-- which, remember, is written by a firm with it's head so far...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-07 - Original post - cached version
2 GOP crooks-- Mark Harris and Trumpanzee

By the end of last month, it was already obvious that North Carolina Trumpist, Mark Harris, had stolen both the GOP primary that ousted Robert Pittenger and then the general election in which he-- against all odds-- beat Blue Dog Dan McCready...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-04 - Original post - cached version

Sunday morning, we took a quick look at the Republican power play in Wisconsin, where, having lost complete control of the executive branch, they have now called a special lame duck session before Scott Walker is shown the door, to hobble Democratic governor-elect Tony Evers and...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-03 - Original post - cached version
Is this why the GOP lost?

The Republicans were shocked when the final vote count in CA-21, dealt them a 7th lost seat. No one really expected TJ Cox to beat David Valadao. The final forecast from FiveThirtyEight gave Valadao a 79% chance at reelection. The last public poll showed...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-12-01 - Original post - cached version

California made a big difference to the new Democratic majority in the House. With the final reversal in the Central Valley’s 21st district yesterday, a total of 7 Republican incumbents are being replaced by Democrats:

• CA-10- Josh Harder replaces Jeff Denham...
Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-27 - Original post - cached version

Probably the biggest surprise last Tuesday was in Oklahoma City, where Democrat Kendra Horn beat Republican incumbent Steve Russell in a race that virtually no one was following. First of all, everyone agrees that OK-05 is a "safe" Republican district; she will be the first Democrat...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-26 - Original post - cached version

A senior congressman who admires Pelosi and totally supports her for Speaker, and has even been publicly outspoken about it, just told me something that surprised me and depressed me: "I think," he said, "that Pelosi’s priorities are exactly in sync with the Democratic base, for...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-25 - Original post - cached version

Last summer, as part of a discussion of some election themes, I suggested to this year's top political cartoonist in the country, Nancy Ohanian, to consider a graphic that depicts Trump as an albatross around the neck of the GOP. Above are a couple of her interpretations. About a...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-20 - Original post - cached version
Stormy weather ahead

Democrats targeted 2 Republican incumbents this cycle, Jason Lewis in the suburban district (MN-02) south of the Twin Cities and Erik Paulsen in the suburbs (MN-03) west, north and south of Minneapolis. They flipped both seats, each of which had been won twice by...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-18 - Original post - cached version
It would have made more sense for Matheson and McAdams to run as Republicans

[Note: This post is for progressives, not for garden variety Democrats or corporatists.] There’s one district in Utah-- the 4th-- that looks winnable for a Democrat. The last Democrat from the district, Jim...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-17 - Original post - cached version

Florida is in the news— and at least it isn’t a hurricane. I think the first time we rang an alarm bell about Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s crooked crony, Broward County elections chief Brenda Snipes, we were picking up on a Politico report by Marc Caputo. In the 2016 cycle, she worked to steal...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-16 - Original post - cached version
Winning smile

Although Maine’s largely rural second congressional district voted for Obama both times he ran, in 2016 it was anything but Hillary country. First Bernie wiped her out in the state caucuses 64.3% to 35.3%. And in the 2nd it was even worse for her. Bernie took every...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-15 - Original post - cached version

Forget for a moment about all the Republicans who gave up their seats voluntarily to escape TrumpWorld or to avoid ignominious defeat. Just look at the ones who stood and fought— and were defeated. Or, in the eyes of the returning congressional Republicans… colleagues who were...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-14 - Original post - cached version
Actual photo of the man who sank gerrymandering to new depths

When Republicans in Texas gained control of the state legislature, then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay went home to work with them on creating new Republican seats where Democratic seats existed before— and in the middle...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-13 - Original post - cached version
Worse than Steve Israel? Worse than Ben Ray Lujan?

Whether in the hiring of staff— the DCCC hires right-of-center hacks in it to line their pockets with not the slightest care about candidates winning or losing— the recruitment of candidates or the decisions about which candidates to...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-13 - Original post - cached version
Will Orange County be a Republican-free zone?

Currently there are 9 House races considered too close to call or in recount. This is the list and my predictions as to how they will likely turn out. Asterisks indicate incumbents and bolding indicates likely winners:


Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-11 - Original post - cached version

People have short memories. The very first GOP incumbent running for reelection endorsed by Trump was Renee Ellmers in North Carolina. Aside from doing his carnival barker routine on Twitter, Trump recorded a robocall for her, which went out to every Republican voter in NC-02. All the...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-09 - Original post - cached version

Democratic campaigns are almost always eager to be added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list. Only novices think that being on that list means the DCCC will automatically contribute money towards the race. The DCCC-- and Pelosi's House Majority PAC-- spend millions of dollars towards some...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-08 - Original post - cached version

Last year, in a special election to replace Tom Price-- who Trump had named to his cabinet (and soon fired him once it became public he was as crooked as almost everyone else in the cabinet)-- Republican Karen Handel beat Democrat Jon Ossoff 134,799 (51.8%) to 125,517 (48.2%) in the R...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-08 - Original post - cached version
Devolution of the Star Child

Democrats winning the House means there will be an effective check on Trump's worst authoritarian tendencies. It also kills the Republican Party's ambitions to repeal the Affordable Care Act and further eviscerate the social safety net. So how many seats...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-07 - Original post - cached version
Donna! Donna! Donna!

Democratic performance was up... but not by enough. There was a little good news. In Miami-Dade, two red seats flipped blue, although both are fairly strong blue districts. FL-27, where Ileana Ros Lehtinen retired, has a PVI of D+5. Hillary beat Trump there by...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-07 - Original post - cached version

Polls are all based on "likely voters." A campaign manager I was talking to last week was in a rush because he was still dragging homeless people onto buses to feed them sandwiches, etc and get them to the early voting stations. Over a thousand. Likely voters? Not a chance. Early voting shows...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

Politico: "The general consensus among Republicans is that they will lose the House, and end up in at least a five-seat minority-- that would correspond to a 28-seat loss. Senior Republicans tell us that even in a worst-case scenario, they do not expect to lose 40 seats. A prescient...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

We all want Trump and his servile, enabling Republicans to lose control of Congress. But many of us feel the Democrats are nothing more than the lesser evil, with a leadership that pursues opportunism and careerism rather than the party's values and principles. How do we change that?...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

Alan Grayson's grassroots PAC, The Resistance, did a final appeal for Randy Bryce Sunday evening. At this point, forget about the contribution part, just try to remember if you know anyone who lives in Racine, Kenosha, Janesville, the suburbs south of Milwaukee... and call them and tell them...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

This isn't a new poll but it could be the numbers we see on our TV screens tonight. Say a prayer. A result like that in Texas today is going to be dependent on, among other things, Latino turnout. Virtually all polling models assume Latinos will not turn out in large numbers. If that...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

by Noah

I've lived in New York City for 39 years so I've gotten to see the Statue Of Liberty innumerable times. She's an elderly woman and frequently in need of repairs. She's a metaphor in that sense. But, the important thing is: She gets those repairs, imperfect though they...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

Perhaps trying to torture Señor Trumpanzee, a 4 month old Pew Research poll was widely circulated on the internet over the weekend, showing that President Obama, by far, is the president who the most Americans think was the best in their lifetimes (31%) followed by Reagan (21%) and Clinton (13...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version
2 dangerous fascists-- Mark Harris and the Pig Man

One of the lesser-of-two-evils races to watch tomorrow is in North Carolina's 9th district, which stretches from Fayetteville to Charlotte and follows the South Carolina border from the Lumberton area into the suburbs south of...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-05 - Original post - cached version

by Noah

Well, the big day is tomorrow, Election Day, Tuesday, November 6, 2018. Will it be a day that lives in infamy?

Having trouble winning on the issues in many districts, and coming up short on the issues in semi-meaningless nationwide generic polls, the Republican...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-04 - Original post - cached version

That video came out on Thursday. Nice, huh? After you watch it, be sure to take a look at the one at the bottom of the post. Over the weekend a Remington Research poll of likely Missouri voters showed an exact 47-47% tie between Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill and Republican Josh Hawley...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-04 - Original post - cached version

Someone in Cheney's office came up with the wildly popular neo-con slogan, "Boys go to Baghdad, real men go to Tehran." Maybe it was Bolton? I'm not sure-- nor does it matter, because what I want to talk about today is that the DCCC goes to R+2 and +3 districts, while real men are...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-03 - Original post - cached version

Emerson released a poll of West Virginia likely voters yesterday. The state's PVI is R+19 and Trump beat Hillary statewide 489,371 (68.5%) to 188,794 (26.4%). He crushed her in every single county-- even in the counties where Bernie had taken more votes than Trump in the primary. The polling...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-03 - Original post - cached version
You know what this baby Nazi grew up to be, right?

I feel like a tape: Republicans generally vote for Republicans and Democrats generally vote for Republicans. That's why, in so many districts-- including ALL the battleground districts-- independents decide the outcome. And you know...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-02 - Original post - cached version

If you think there is any normative boundary Trump wouldn't smash through to get what he wants-- no matter how banal-- you haven't been paying attention or you haven't known Trump archetypes. I once worked for someone-- a multimillionaire many times over-- who got out of a taxi we...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-02 - Original post - cached version

The new Morning Consult poll makes a couple of important points we should bear in mind:

• 59% of registered voters say the country is on the wrong track
• 54% of registered voters disapprove of the way Trump is doing his job (43% approve)
• Generic congressional...
Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-02 - Original post - cached version

I'm sure by now everyone has seen Trumpanzee's scolding tweet aimed at Paul Ryan yesterday. "I guess we all know who Trump plans to blame for our losses next week," a top Republican House staffer told me minutes after the tweet. "This guy is so fucked up... He's like an albatross...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-01 - Original post - cached version

We asked Blue America members and DWT readers to vote on which districts they wanted us to add our new Get Out the Vote ads with the song Matthew Grimm wrote for us. So, right now, besides the ads running in WI-01 and NE-02, districts where Randy Bryce and Kara Eastman are running, we are...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-11-01 - Original post - cached version

Late Tuesday night, Peter Baker reported for the New York Times that "In the last days before a midterm congressional election that will determine the future of his presidency, Mr. Trump seems to be throwing almost anything he can think of against the wall to see what might stick, no...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-10-31 - Original post - cached version
Joe Cunningham (SC) & Amy McGrath (KY)-- their races will be the 1st reported. If they both win, the  Republicans will lose 60 seats

Next Tuesday we may have an idea how big the wave is going to be because of something that happens in South Carolina. SC-01 is, generally speaking,...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-10-31 - Original post - cached version
Hugin & Menendez-- living proof of why primaries are so important

Sinema (AZ) is the worst Democrat in the House-- the one that is most supportive of Trump and most opposed to a progressive agenda. She's the chair of the Blue Dog Cause; she's grotesquely corrupt-- soliciting money...

Down With Tyranny - 2018-10-31 - Original post - cached version

Yes, "House," so we won't be talking about Ted Cruz, the only Senate arch-villain up for reelection this cycle. Every House seat is up for reelection and a case could be made that's they're all arch-villains since they all enable Trump. Do they? Well, yes... but some enable Trump more than...


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