The ultimate establishment polling firm Democrats use for unbiased polling is Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. Last week they did a poll of the MI-06 primary to see who the likeliest candidate against Fred Upton will be. So just likely Democratic primary voters. The most progressive in the 6-person race, Paul Clemens led the field-- "braced by impressive favorability ratings, a solid regional base and superior name recognition." Their finding were pretty straight forward:
• Clements is the best known, most popular candidate. At this point in the race, Paul Clements holds at least a 27 point advantage in name recognition compared to every other Democrat running. He also posts an exceptional 4:1 positive-to-negative ratio in favorability.• Clements holds a lead in the trial heat. Buoyed by a strong regional base in Kalamazoo (26 percent Clements), Paul Clements leads the field with 21 percent of the vote share. Only one other candidate breaks 10 percent: 12 percent Eponine Garrod, 6 percent Matt Longjohn, 5 percent Rich Eichholz, 5 percent George Franklin, 4 percent David Benac. A 48 percent plurality of are undecided.• Sixth District Democrats are looking for change and looking to send a signal to Donald Trump. By far, voters identify “standing up to Trump” as the leading priority for a candidate for Congress this area. They are finding that candidate in Paul Clements.
Right after the polling was completed a second woman joined the list of candidates, Aida Gray from Galesburg. Tuesday night she'll be joining Clements, David Benac, Eponine Garrod, George Franklin, Matt Longjohn, and Rich Eichholz at the Greater Niles Senior Center for a candidates forum. Michigan primary day isn't until August 7th.I asked a friend at the DCCC who the DCCC is backing in this primary. After the usual bullshit about how they don't support anyone in primaries, he admitted they have two horses in the race. Both are right-of-center establishment guys, physician Mark Longjohn, who claims they recruited him, and lobbyist George Franklin. Franklin is the bizarre candidate in the race-- he also has a bizarre $100,000 "contribution" in his war-chest that doesn't seem to have come from anywhere. Franklin is a conservative Democrat, a corrupt lobbyist, who has been helping to finance the career of the Republican incumbent, Fred Upton, who they're all running against. He doesn't make a persuasive argument that anyone should back him now. Sure the DC Dems like him, but he comes in dead last in local favorability (typical of candidates the DCCC likes).Blue America has endorsed Paul Clements. Maybe his favorability rating is so much higher than any of his competitors is because his agenda is the clearest and most well-thought out. His opponents speak in cliches. Clements lays out actual plans. He wrote that "In southwest Michigan and across America people are working longer hours for less pay than at the end of the 20th century. This is not right. We have the strongest entrepreneurial spirit in the world, but to release its power we need to fix the things that are holding us back: a health care system that costs twice as much but delivers worse health outcomes than those in other countries; education that is failing to prepare many Americans for the 21st century; laws that reward moving American assets overseas; crumbling infrastructure; and the the largest prison population in the world-- which is incredibly costly and keeps many people from being contributing members of the community. Tax cuts will not bring more jobs and better pay to southwest Michigan, but fixing our health, education, infrastructure, and criminal justice systems will." And then he explains what he wants to do about it in Congress. I'm going to give some examples of how he wants to tackle the problems he's identified. If you like them, please consider contributing to his campaign by clicking on the Blue America thermometer on the right.
• We spend over $10,000 per person on health care in 2016, compared with Canada, which spends less than US$5,000 per person. In addition, Canada, which has a universal health care system, had longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality. With Medicare for All we can reduce paperwork administrative costs, advertising, and insurance company profits-- and move to zero co-pays for essential services, including dental, vision, and mental health services-- while covering all Americans. We can strengthen prevention and empower patients.In Congress, I will vote for Medicare for All such as through H.R. 676, the United States National Health Care Act, sponsored by Rep. John Conyers.I will also support legislation to lower prescription drug costs and to improve women’s access to reproductive healthcare.• Our tax system should encourage investment in the United States, not overseas:1- No more corporate inversions – you can’t escape American taxes by moving your headquarters overseas2- End tax havens and tax breaks for corporations that send jobs and profits offshore.Strengthen leadership in leading technologies for 21st-century economies1- Promote solar, wind, and other renewable energy technologies; end subsidies for carbon pollution2- Global warming, a growing world population, and harm to the environment mean the world could once again face chronic food shortages, but federal funding for agricultural research has fallen. In 2009 we fell behind China. Strengthen agricultural research and development so America can continue to feed the world.• People know our infrastructure is collapsing. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives America’s infrastructure a grade of D+. This raises costs for all of us and weakens our global competitiveness.Investment ProgramWe need a trillion-dollar infrastructure program paid for by ending tax loopholes for corporations. This will bring good jobs across the country that pay for themselves in higher productivity.We cannot have another crime like the Flint water crisisMass Transit1- High-speed trains2- Less time stuck in traffic and waiting at airports• Unions brought us the 40 hour work week, the end of child labor, and paid vacations. In recent years all the gains from increased productivity have gone to owners and management – none to workers. The median wage is below where it was two decades ago, while the stock market has more than doubled. To restore fairness to workers we need stronger unions. Workers have a right to participate in decisions about the workplace, and workers’ input is needed to build American competitiveness in the 21st century global market.• Global warming and climate change threaten human civilization. We need American leadership now to keep global warming below 2° Celsius, the target from the Paris Climate Agreement, and to help communities around the world to adapt to the effects of climate change and to care for its victims. There are also great economic opportunities from climate change, for southwest Michigan and for America, particularly in worldwide transitions to renewable energy. In Congress, I will work for American leadership in international organizations that address challenges from climate change. I will promote a rapid transition to energy that does not produce carbon pollution, to increased energy efficiency, and for American leadership in the clean energy global economy.• In Michigan, we are blessed with many gifts of nature, particularly the Great Lakes. It is our responsibility to be good stewards of these blessings, so our children and grandchildren can enjoy them as we have. We need to consistently apply the lessons of science to maintain their ecological integrity and to minimize threats from economic activities.Oil pipelines under the Great Lakes present an undue risk. We have seen too many burst pipelines, and the companies that own and profit from these pipelines have not been reliable in assessing their risks. In particular, it is time to close the Line 5 pipelines, built in 1953 in the Mackinac Straits, where an oil spill would have devastating consequences for people, fish and wildlife, and the economy.• Money in politics is the main reason government is not working for the people. For democracy to succeed, politicians need to be accountable to voters-- not to big donors, or to billionaires who can fund advertising campaigns.Candidates for certain offices should get free airtime on television and radio so voters can learn what they stand for.We need public funding for elections. Perhaps each eligible voter could allocate $5 in public funds to the candidate of his or her choice.Corporations are not people. I support overturning or working around Citizen’s United. Elected officials should be responsible to the voters in their districts, not to corporations.Politicians should not be able to choose their voters. After each census, new district boundaries should be drawn by non-partisan commissions based on transparent principles, not by the party in power. I support Michigan’s Voters, not Politicians ballot initiative.• We owe our seniors a dignified retirement. Social Security is not in crisis, but to protect it for the long term we should remove the cap on income subject to Social Security tax. This would also permit larger Social Security payments to seniors living in poverty. We must continue to increase Social Security payments in line with inflation.• Americans are more burdened by student loan debt than ever. At $1.45 trillion, student loan debt is almost twice as high as total US credit card debt. Many graduates from my university and across the county are living with their parents; many can’t buy homes or cars or start a business; some even delay marriage due to debt.For the 21st Century, a high school diploma is not enough. But while global competition demands a better educated workforce, funding for public colleges and universities has declined. While the Federal Reserve lends to banks at less than 2% interest, many students pay 8-9%. The federal government should not profit from student loans-- it should refinance loans at today’s low rates.• As a Democrat, I am ashamed that my party has failed to maintain the fairness that we stand for in society. The Democratic National Committee’s bias in favor of Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders before the conclusion of the primaries was unworthy of our party. Also, to restore the practice on one person—one vote, we should end the “superdelegate” system at our party conventions. Democratic Party practices should demonstrate the democratic equality we promote.
That's a sample of what Paul Clements hopes accomplish in Congress. He makes a good case for why voters in Kalamazoo, Niles, Sturgis, Benton Harbor, South Haven, Allegan and Three Rivers should vote for him. It helps explain the lopsided favorability in the new polls.Obama won this district in 2008 (53-45%) and lost it narrowly in 2012 (50-49%), But in 2016 Trump crushed Hillary-- 51.3% to 42.9%. People in southwest Michigan wanted change, not the status quo. Bernie beat Hillary by a wide margin. Take Kalamazoo County, the biggest in the district. Not only did Bernie beat Hillary 60.6%, his 20,146 vote total was significantly moire than Trump's 8,655 total. This district is ready to come back to home to Democrats... but not with a Republican-lite status quo candidate. MI-06 is the wrong district for an establishment corporate Democrat.