Global Times
January 1, 2014
Egypt knows it has other options in multipolar world
By Clifford A. Kiracofe
Egypt’s foreign policy is bound to change after the turmoil of the last two years. Dissatisfaction with Washington and emerging multipolarity in the international system influence decisions of top leaders around the world. Egypt is no exception and the handwriting has been on the wall for US-Egypt relations.
The bilateral relations were fixed during the Anwar Sadat and Hosni Mubarak years as a result of the Camp David Accords in 1978 which led to the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty of 1979. The deal involved billions of dollars in US aid to Israel and to Egypt.
In return for the money, Egypt was required to honor the peace treaty with Israel. Critics at the time said US policy one-sidedly supported Israeli interests in the deal which neutralized Egypt as a factor in the Middle East.
Sadat’s foreign policy dropped close relations with Russia in favor of an alignment with the West. He based his policy on the premise that relations with the West would lead to major improvements in the Egyptian economy through foreign direct investment and trade relations and that military aid would be forthcoming.
But Egypt was thus alienated from the Arab world and Sadat was later assassinated by an Islamist terrorist.
Mubarak, under US pressure, continued the Sadat policy until the time he left office.
In the present post-Mubarak phase, Egypt is adjusting its international relations. But this is no surprise. In fact, a reorientation in Egyptian foreign policy in the direction of Moscow and Beijing has been expected by some US experts for over a decade.
When I visited Egypt in 2002, this option for Egypt was clearly in the air. I was in meetings with the then foreign minister as well as in meetings with former Egyptian ambassadors and officials in which relations with Washington and the regional situation were discussed. I also met with the rector of the prestigious and influential Al-Azhar University. To balance my impressions, I met with US embassy officials including our then ambassador.
My take-away from the visit was that the US had lost credibility and influence not only owing to Washington’s handling of the Palestine issue but also owing to the handling of relations with Egypt. Washington’s inflexible tilt to Israel increasingly alienated Egyptian elites and, significantly, the masses.
Discussion of the visit and my assessment of the developing situation over the next several years with friends and former colleagues in government confirmed my earlier views. One former colleague, a veteran of the State Department and National Security Council, told me that it was probable that Egypt would drift from the US in the near or medium term.
My friend explained that he had recently met with Egyptian cabinet officials and senior military officers for frank discussions. Because he had been on excellent terms with these officials and officers for many years, the conversations took place in a friendly atmosphere. This was a decade ago.
The Egyptian side emphasized to my friend that Egypt did not need US money and did not need US weapons because there were other options in the world. Russia, eastern Europe, and China could furnish weapons as well as various forms of economic assistance through trade and investment.
The Obama administration considerably worsened US-Egypt relations. The White House mistakenly continued the George W. Bush’s policy of grouping Israel with the Gulf states in a coalition against Iran. But instead of just taking Egypt for granted as Bush had, the Obama administration launched yet another US-backed “Color Revolution” upon the development of the Arab Spring.
Now that Egypt is recovering from the Obama destabilization and regime change policy, it is not difficult to understand that Cairo seeks other options. It is also not surprising that Obama’s vaunted June 2009 Cairo speech lost all meaning when actions did not match words.
Friends of Egypt should wish its people well and hope that the development of relations with Russia and China can serve Egyptian interests as well as regional peace.
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