2020 congressional elections

In 2016, Trump won Florida's 29 electoral votes by beating Hillary 4,617,886 (49.02%) to 4,504,975 (47.82), a 112,911 margin for the Orange Menace. Numerically the key to making up for that margin involves 3 things:

Republicans aren't competitive in Washington's 10th district-- basically most of Thurston County (Olympia) and part of Pierce County (Tacoma area). With incumbent Denny Heck retiring, the jungle primary attracted 19 candidates, including 8 Democrats and 8 Republicans. The PVI is D+5 but the three top vote-getters in the high turnout election were all Democrats.

2018 DCCC recruit Jeff Van Drew is honest enough to be running for reelection as a Republican. Other 2018 DCCC recruits are being endorsed by the US Chamber of Commerce. Maybe someone needs to change the DCCC-- drasticallyProgressivePunch has awarded grades of "F" to 108 Democrats in Congress. 35 of them are part of the the most right-wing freshmen class in the history of the modern Democratic Party.

Louis & Donald Fix The Post Office by Nancy OhanianThe House hadn't voted since it passed the Pentagon budget on July 31. Then on Saturday, there were 4 votes on the post office, including a Republican motion to prevent a vote from taking place at all. That Republican vote to recommit failed 223 to to 182. The 144 who voted, all voted to recommit.

On Tuesday we had some significant victories in the Florida primaries, especially for Florida legislature candidate Angie Nixon and for FL-03 congressional candidate Adam Christensen. Angie's district is so blue that she doesn't even have a Republican opponent in November. Adam's district... well, it's pretty red and gave Trump a 16 point margin in 2016.

The New Dems don't just endorse anyone who asks them for an endorsement and they don't sell endorsements as part of a protection racket the way certain other caucuses do. They vet their candidates very carefully and if they detect any fiscal progressive streak-- BOOM!-- it's over. The New Dems are the dominant part of Congress' Republican wing of the Democratic Party.

In an OpEd for the Wall Street Journal on Saturday, Rahm Emanuel celebrated the idea of "Biden Republicans," basically conservative GOP voters who have had enough of Trump and are eager to vote him out of office by electing Joe Biden who was long bragged about being the most conservative Democrat in the Senate.

All summer, the polls Marist did for NPR-- there have been 4 so far-- have shown Trump's disapproval rating between 54 and 58%. Their newest poll has his approval at 39%-- and among Independent registered voters his approval is just 32% and his disapproval among this key cohort is 57%.

Congresswoman-elect Q-AnonGeorgia has elected some real nut cases to Congress in recent years.

This is a Republican ad-- but who will it help and who will it harm?The Kevin McCarthy-controlled Congressional Leadership Fund went into the 2020 cycle with some kind of delusion that they would be able to go on the offensive and win back the seats they lost in 2018 and thereby the House majority.