Reshaping The GOP by Nancy OhanianBecause California will be voting early in the cycle (March 3)-- right after Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, the biggest state in the Union will play an outsized role in choosing the Democratic nominee. According to a poll of likely voters released yesterday by the Public Policy Institute of California, there's a virtual 3-way tie for the top spot-- and the state's senator, Kamala Harris, isn't part of it.
• Elizabeth Warren- 23%• Status Quo Joe- 22%• Bernie- 21%• Kamala- 8%• Mayo Pete- 6%
35% of likely voters approve of the job Trump is doing in the poll, not much different from the poll Morning Consult did in September in their Tracking Trump Across America project. Morning Consult found that 34% approve of the job Trump is doing and 62% disapprove, a 28 point deficit in California. Luckily for the GOP, there are no statewide elections for them to lose next year. As for congressional seats, that's another-- and more complicated-- matter.California has 53 congressional districts and the Republicans are left with only 7, after the spectacular loss of 7 seats last year. This is what's left, along with the grievously out of date PVIs and their win numbers last year:
• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa- R+11-- 54.9%• CA-04- Tom McClintock- R+10-- 54.1%• CA-08- Paul Cook (retiring)- R+9-- 60.0% (against a Republican)• CA-22- Devin Nunes- R+8-- 52.7%• CA-23- Kevin McCarthy- R+14-- 63.7%• CA-42- Ken Calvert- R+9-- 56.5%• CA-50- Duncan Hunter- R+11-- 51.7%
The best Democratic candidate running against these clowns is Audrey Denney in CA-01. You can contribute to election-- and that of the other solid progressives taking on conservatives in California this cycle-- by clicking on the Make California Bluer 2020 thermometer on the right. But her district, like the other 6, looks prohibitively red. Audrey, who ran last year and had LaMalfa on the run, has much better name ID now and is running as strong a campaign. Last year she managed to match LaMalfa's fund-raising (a bit over a million dollars) and so far this cycle-- as of the June 30 FEC deadline-- she was outraging him, $436,252 to 347,614.On paper, Nunes looks like a more likely target for Democrats (with the best PVI for a Democrat). But he's a money-machine among the GOP grassroots and brought in $12,619,096 last cycle, had $5,655,570 on hand as of June 30 and had already raised $3,072,399. There are 3 Democrats signed up for the primary, a meaningless status quo conservative backed by the DCCC, Phil Arballo, who had raised $129,161 by June 30 and two progressives, Bobby Bliatout ($11,781) and Dary Rezvani ($9,554).But there really is no doubt which seat is the most likely to fall-- CA-50, where Duncan Hunter is only hanging on so he can use the seat as a bargaining chip with federal prosecutors in his upcoming trial. Last cycle he was seriously outspent by Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, $4,002,823 to $1,808,791, but managed to hold on 51.7% to 48.3% because Hunter ran racist/terrorist! TV spots against Campa-Najjar and because a disgustingly racist DCCC refused to get behind him, since he has a Muslim-sounding name. (He's a Christian.)Campa-Najjar will certainly be in the general election but California's screwy jungle primary will determine which Republican he'll be facing. The race was complicated last week when Darrell Issa jumped into the primary against Hunter and bribed 5 other Republicans to drop out and endorse him. He can spend as much money as he wants-- having made millions as a car thief and general all-around fraudster-- but the San Diego Union-Tribune ran a SurveyUSA poll it commissioned that indicates Issa may not make it out of the March 3 primary. Duncan Hunter looks like a sure loser, so he'll try to cut a deal with prosectors as soon as he can. Who picks up his dumb-as-bricks supporters will be key for the Republicans.
In the poll, Hunter, with 11 percent of the vote, is trailing GOP opponents Carl DeMaio (20 percent) and Darrell Issa (16 percent) while lone Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who narrowly lost to Hunter a year ago, leads with 31 percent....Among a subset of voters who said they are “certain” to vote, Campa-Najjar’s total increases to 34 percent and DeMaio’s to 22. Hunter’s support drops to 9 percent.The 50th District covers a swath of the county east and north of San Diego, a region that has shown strong loyalty to the Hunter name for decades. Duncan L. Hunter Sr. served in Congress from 1981 to 2009, and his son Duncan D. Hunter is in his sixth two-year term.His victory last year by just under 9,000 votes came about 10 weeks after he was indicted on federal charges of illegally spending $250,000 in campaign funds on personal expenses. He has pleaded not guilty and is awaiting a trial scheduled for January.In the poll, almost twice as many voters said they have a negative impression of Hunter as those who hold a positive view. Almost 60 percent said the evidence in the corruption case against him suggests “he may have broken the law,” while 13 percent believe the charges are “a partisan witch hunt,” which has been Hunter’s take on the prosecution.Voters also said one of the most important issues for them is the “character of the candidate.” That tied in their rankings with border security and holding President Donald Trump “accountable for his actions.” Hunter has been a strong supporter of the president.Other top issues: “rallying behind the president,” and climate change.The 50th District has more registered Republicans than Democrats, and that was reflected in the poll. Of the likely voters surveyed, 44 percent are Republican and 30 percent Democrat; 24 percent are independent. Among the Republicans, DeMaio leads, followed closely by Issa. As the only Democrat in the race, Campa-Najjar was the overwhelming choice among those voters and also polled first with independents.Campa-Najjar also scored well in the “character of the candidate” question, getting half the vote of those who consider that the most important issue, 31 points ahead of DeMaio. Three-fourths of the voters who ranked “holding the president accountable” as their chief concern favored Campa-Najjar, 15 times more than the next competitor.But among the top four candidates in the overall poll, Campa-Najjar also had the largest percentage of voters, 32, who said they are “unfamiliar” with him. DeMaio was next, at 21 percent.DeMaio, a former San Diego City Council member, and Issa, a former congressman, tied among voters who said border security is the most important issue.
Turn-out is expected to be sky-high among Democrats and Republicans as both bases turn out to either support or defeat Trump. If the Democrats nominate Status Quo Joe Biden, it could hurt the party's turn-out with progressives and activists who may choose to skip the election rather than backing a less-of-two evils candidate.