A federal court Trump hasn't had the opportunity to pervert yet, voted unanimously to strike down the Michigan GOP legislature's grossly unconstitutional gerrymander that handed a 50/50 state over to the Republicans in the state House, state Senate and congressional delegation, even while statewide, the Democrats were kicking GOP butt. The decision will force a redrawing of congressional districts 1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12; state Senate Districts 8, 11, 12, 14, 18, 27, and 36; and state House Districts 24, 32, 51, 55, 60, 63, 75, 83, 91, 94, and 95. (The Court let 7 contested legislative districts stand as they are-- three in the state Senate and 4 in the state House but will also require Michigan to conduct special state Senate elections for some seats next year, cutting in half the four-year terms those current lawmakers are now serving.)Unless the Supreme Court-- which Trump has perverted (very much so)-- grants a stay, fairly likely with 2 similar cases pending for North Carolina and Maryland, the new boundaries will have to be approved by the court in time for the 2020 election. The court characterized the boundaries the legislature drew as a partisan gerrymander "of historical proportions."The ruling stated flatly that the "predominate purpose" of the Republican redistricting plan (2011) "was to subordinate the interests of Democratic voters and entrench Republicans in power" violating the first and 14th Amendment rights of the plaintiffs. In the statewide races last cycle, the Republicans got just 43.7% in the gubernatorial race and just 45.8% in the U.S. Senate race.The court ordered a super-transparent redistricting process that requires the legislature to present Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer a new map she agrees to sign by August 1. If they fail-- likely-- the court will appoint a special master, the way the court in Pennsylvania did, which was catastrophic for the Republican congressional delegation. The Pennsylvania delegation went from 13 Republicans and 5 Democrats under the illegally gerrymandered map to 9 Democrats and 9 Republicans (if the GOP holds onto PA-12 next week, as expected).The unanimous decision was made by 3 judges, 2 Clinton appointees and one appointee of George H.W. Bush. During the process, Michigan's new Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson (D), wasn't nearly as harsh towards the GOP law-breakers as the court was. But yesterday she said that the ruling "confirms that these Michigan state House and Senate and U.S. congressional districts are unconstitutional... As the state’s chief election officer, I’m committed to working with the Legislature, citizens and the court to ensure the new districts comply with our U.S. Constitution."When the suit began, Michigan had 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats in Congress, despite the fact that the statewide votes are around 50/50. In 2018, though, 2 red seats were flipped and the delegation now stands at 7 Republicans and 7 Democrats. The redrawing could turn the delegation bluer yet. These are the members of Congress directly impacted by the ruling, along with the PVI of each district:
• MI-01- Jack Bergman (R)- R+9• MI-04- John Moolenaar (R)- R+10• MI-05- Dan Klildee (D)- D+5• MI-07- Tim Walberg (R)- R+7• MI-08- Elissa Slotkin (D)- R+4• MI-09- Andy Levin (D)- D+4• MI-10- Paul Mitchell (R)- R+13• MI-11- Haley Stevens (D)- R+4• MI-12- Debbie Dingell (D)- D+14
As far as I can tell, a fairer map wouldn't change much. Slotkin and Stevens would probably wind up with less red districts, perhaps with an R+1 lean rather than the current R+4 leans that are usually only flippable in wave cycles. The Republican who could be in serious jeopardy is Tim Walberg in the southeast corner of the state, where his district is likely to end up with more Democratic voters from Washtenaw County in Debbie Dingell's district. It wouldn't put her in jeopardy at all to turn MI-07 into an evenly split district, which is always what courts want to see. Maybe I'm being too conservative in my thinking, but my best guess is that a new map will result in just one change in the delegation. If the DCCC runs a reasonable candidate-- like the sack of Blue Dog garbage they ran in 2018-- they would be able to retire Walberg. That's really it, other than more safety for reelection hopes for Slotkin and Stevens, who are being targeted by the NRCC now, but probably will be just targeted on paper after their districts are made more even.Walberg beat back wretched Blue Dog Gretchen Driskell, one of the worst candidates the DCCC was pushing last cycle, 158,730 (53.8%) to 136,330 (46.2%). In a slightly fairer district, a non-lesser-of-two-evils Democrat would probably spell the end of Walberg's political career. There are currently 8 counties in the district. The DCCC was eager to field a Blue Dog with relatively little in common with actual Democrats who live in those counties beyond Choice and other social issues. Keep in mind that Democrats in those 8 counties went overwhelmingly for Bernie-- he won all 8 counties-- rather than Hillary in 2016, a real indictment of DCCC interference in local elections. The eight counties are listed here by the size of their voter turnout, but big and small they were all Bernie territory. Democrats chose to back the populist progressive, not the corporatist status quo candidate. That didn't stop-- never stops-- the DCCC from saddling them with an even worse candidate than Hillary, a full-fledged conservative, Republican-lite Blue Dog:
• Monroe- Bernie- 48.1% (to Hillary's 47.2%)• Jackson- Bernie- 55.0%• Washtenaw- Bernie- 55.4%• Eaton- Bernie- 55.6%• Lenawee- Bernie- 53.9%• Hillsdale- Bernie- 56.7%• Branch- Bernie- 53.6%
In the general, Trump won Monroe (58.4%), Jackson (57.2%), Eaton (49.6%), Leenawee (57.6%), Hillsdale (70.9%) and Branch (66.9%). Clinton won only Washtenaw County, where, remember, Bernie has edged her in the primary. It's why people so often say Bernie would have won-- and will in 2020, unless the Democrats manage to run another Clinton-type candidate.