By Hanadi LoubaniMany observers have noted how the call by the US for an emergency session of the UN Security Council to support Iranian antigovernment protesters drew heated and bitter debate, laying bare deep ideological rifts over the future of the Middle East. Others have commented how it exposed how competing forces, inside and outside the region, are continually mobilizing events in conflicting ways to suit their policy agendas. And yet, observers are slow to show how the emergency UN session highlights a remarkably rich picture of a power-shift in the Middle East, where the age of American uni-polarity has come to an end hastened by US foreign-policy dysfunctions and failures. It is clear that new international relations in the Middle East have emerged - relations that reflect an expanding reach for Hezbollah, Iran and Russia as they pursue their own interests and in defiance of US hegemony in the region.First: a little history.In June 2006, then Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, and during a press conference with then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in Tel Aviv, proclaimed the birth of a “new Middle East.” This coincided with the height of the Israeli aerial invasion of Lebanon. As such, it amounted to an American-Israeli “military roadmap” in the Middle East to realign the region through unleashing the forces of “constructive chaos.” Strategically, this meant generating an arc of instability, violence and warfare throughout the region in order to intimidate, counter and weaken emerging regional and international power influences in the Middle East, namely Hezbollah and Iran. The project of a “new Middle East” has been in the planning stages for several years. And it produced a number of campaigns and developments: beginning with the American occupation of Iraq in 2003, to the wave of regional “spring revolutions” that triggered massive anti-government protests in Iran in 2009, as well as in several Arab countries starting in 2011 (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain), and to rapid territorial gains by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and other Islamist terror groups during the first half of 2014. It is important to note that the term “new Middle East” was originally coined by then Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres who, after the Oslo Accords were signed with the Palestinians in the 1990s, envisioned a new era where Israel would be fully and openly normalized, in the midst of a wider union, perhaps similar to the European Union, and where Israel would achieve dominance and play the role of Germany. And Israel did indeed emerge as an important player in the Middle Eastern arena, not only through its traditional arsenal of military might and unconditional support from the US, but also through its penetration of the core Sunni Arab world via new public and visible levels of cooperation with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. The Trump administration has accelerated this cooperation, to the extent that one can now speak now of an open coalition of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia to counter the rising influence of Hezbollah and Iran.And yet, events in the past years offer a remarkably rich menu of how this American-Israeli-Saudi coalition has failed to register one single victory in the last number of years despite the multiple fronts of confrontation. Iran and Hezbollah along with Russia, which is now cast in the role as superpower benefactor, are on the winning side of years-long conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen:The 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq installed a Shiite government in Baghdad. Most recently, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared the total liberation of Iraq from ISIS and announced that the Iraqi army, supported by the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces, closely backed by Iran, was in full control of the country’s border with Syria.The 2006 Israeli aerial invasion of Lebanon elevated Hezbollah to the commanding heights of Lebanese politics. Last summer, an unprecedented joint offensive between Hezbollah and the Lebanese and Syrian armies liberated the last significant enclave controlled by ISIS and other Islamist terror groups along the border with Syria. Most recently, Hezbollah and the Lebanese government were quick to foil a plot by the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman, to force Lebanon’S Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, to announce his resignation while reportedly under house arrest in Riyadh. Bin Salman’s hopes that this would bring about the Lebanese government's collapse and/or prompt a popular uprising against Hezbollah and its Iranian allies in Lebanon have been disappointed.In Syria, the army, assisted by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, were able to degrade ISIS to an astounding extent in the last few months. Syrian and Iraqi forces are now steadily pushing toward their shared border. Whilst ISIS still holds slivers of land in Syria, it is apparent that it is falling apart as fighters surrender or desert. Most alerting Israel are the expanding spheres of military influence and presence along its border by Iran and Hezbollah in southwestern Syria. Moreover, the latest military defeats of ISIS in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon have fortified a land corridor that gives Iran a supply line to Hezbollah across Iraq and Syria and into Lebanon.Iranian-supported Houthi rebels have seized control of much of Yemen and have made advances into Saudi territory. The coalition of Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia and supported by the US, has suffered not only on the ground military losses, but has also contributed to the country's humanitarian crisis, damaging Saudi Arabia's image along with that of the US both regionally and internationally.The failure of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region’s bid for independence and its continuous descend into seemingly untameable chaos are deeply frustrating to the US and Israel, as the independent Iraqi Kurdistan was seen as an effective counter-balance against Iran’s reach towards the Mediterranean. The failure of the September referendum also led to Iraqi forces reasserting authority over Kirkuk and its oil assets and Iraqi border crossings. Whilst Syria's Kurds do not want a model similar to that of their Iraqi counterparts, their attempt to gain greater autonomy in northeastern Syria are now severely compromised given Turkey’s all-out military assault against Syrian Kurds. This lays bare how much leverage the US has lost in Syria and how its role has receded, giving Russia the chance to fill the vacuum and to rehabilitate its relationship with Turkey. The latest Syrian Kurdish positions reflect a greater willingness for dialogue with Damascus as well as building ties with Iran.The 2011 uprising in Bahrain has been contained but not resolved. As the Saudi-supported Bahraini government fails to offer meaningful political reform to address deep-rooted social and economic inequalities, the Bahraini opposition has splintered and radicalized in such ways that it can add Bahrain to the list of countries where Iran can have more influence.Trump’s latest moves to declare Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and to cut funding to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and to the Palestinians by freezing a $125 million transfer to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, are seen by many in the region as a result of the frustrations and defeats in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Moreover, it is seen as a last ditch effort to register a victory by forcing the PA to come back to the negotiation table for what Trump calls the “ultimate deal.” And yet, even a leader as pliable as Mahmoud Abbas, who has staked his entire leadership on the peace process, is finding it hard to sell to the Palestinians a US brokered peace deal, where Jerusalem has already been removed from the process and the Right of Return for Palestinian refugees is widely understood to have been effectively amputated. Abbas’ refusal to meet with Vice President Mike Pence is telling of the short-sidedness of the Trump Jerusalem declaration. This is further supported by the phone conversation made public between Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, Qassem Suleimani, in which it was promised that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards would stand by the Hamas leadership and other resistance factions to provide them with all the means at their disposal in the struggle against Israeli occupation. The meetings made public between all Palestinian factions and Hezbollah are yet another factor to consider. In sum, the strategic dysfunctions and failures of the American-Israeli-Saudi coalition have handed Hezbollah and Iran dominant influence in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. The Arab uprisings of 2011 can add Bahrain to the list of places where Iran can have more control in the region. With the Trump Jerusalem declaration, Hamas and other Palestinian resistance factions are gaining more public support among Palestinians and are building closer ties to Hezbollah and Iran. Despite all the pains that sanctions have inflicted Iran and whether the current nuclear deal remains or fails, Iran is destined to exercise an ever expanding strategic role in the Middle East. All of this signals that a new order in the Middle East has come into being: a new order that is not the one that the Americans and Israelis have envisaged or that the Trump-Netanyahu-Bin Salman coalition are now trying to broker. Today’s new Middle East poses greater security threats than the former Middle East to the US and its Israeli and Saudi allies.* Hanadi Loubani is a Palestinian-Canadian writer and researcher.
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