by David KeithI’ve been spending my time in New York City these days and while 2017 is well over a year away, voters (and political junkies) are beginning to smell blood in the water. A lot of people have been following Mayor Bill DeBlasio lately, particularly due to his horrific poll numbers, and have asked me my thoughts on his political future.Sure, it's no secret that he’s not popular, but people find it hard to understand how or even if he can be taken down. They see NYC as so Democratic that they just don't think its possible. (These are millennials who don't remember how Rudy won and assume Bloomberg only won because of his cash.)My response: he’s going down in 2017. And it will not be in the primary. Here’s my analysis:New York City may be, as the Mayor calls it, A Tale of Two Cities, however that is not what voters actually care about. And if you don’t believe me, look at the polls. Mayor DeBlasio’s job performance numbers are at 38%, and falling. He will probably sit at 35% until he ramps up his campaign and begins running a paid advertising program.Now, if this were other cities like say, Chicago, DeBlasio could recover and still win re-election (remember, Emanuel was in the low 30’s over a year out from the 2015 election and he still won, by over 10 percentage points).But New York—- particularly the politics of New York—- is not like Chicago (or any other city for that matter). The key to New York City politics is that voters don’t consider themselves pure Democrats, Republicans, or Independents. Rather, they consider themselves part of individual power bases under the umbrellas of the 3 major political groups: Independents, Democrats, Republicans. That is why the endorsements of local polticial groups (referred to as “clubs”) are so coveted by aspiring elected officials in the City.So, the Mayor’s at 38%, what does that mean? For one, Republicans don’t like him. In fact, they hate him. In 2013, when DeBlasio was elected by a staggering super majority of voters, the independent power bases in New York City’s Republican Party knew they had no hope. It had been over two Decades of Republican (or pseudo-Republican) rule and they knew it was not financially (or politically) worth it to make a hard run at City Hall. But now, all of the power bases (the conservatives, the libertarians, the special interests, etc)... they all dislike the mayor and intend to take him down in 2017.Independents hate DeBlasio just as much as Republicans do. New York independents (who will be voting for Hillary in 2016) consider themselves “Rockefeller Republicans.” They hate social conservatives but don’t want any liberals raising their taxes to pay for public housing, welfare, or the like. So independents HATE the mayor. These white, former Democrats were the strength behind Rudy Giuliani’s multiple wins and will be at the core of the winning candidacy which takes down DeBlasio. You can find such voters in the outer boroughs (particularly Staten Island and Queens). A lot of them are Catholic and working class.And finally, the Democrats. It may surprise you that a lot of Democrats don’t like the mayor.If you look at his polling, the Democrats who like him are union members (outside of the conservative building trades) and minorities from the outer boroughs. That leaves a lot of Democratic power bases out of the picture. Particularly, quintessential white liberals from Manhattan (who care about the poor and even don't mind helping them) are fed up with DeBlasio. The polling shows, these liberals are focused on the staggering amounts of homeless that have found themselves back on the streets. These liberals (who tend to be wealthy and chatter about the direction the city is headed while at Upper West/East Side cocktail parties) don’t mind higher taxes for social services but don’t like homeless people on their sidewalks.So now that you can understand why the Mayor is going down, here is who will take him down.I don’t know who exactly, but I can tell you the type of candidate who will NOT be beating the mayor.First of all, no Democrat will beat DeBlasio in a primary. Yes, Hakeem Jeffries and Ruben Diaz Jr. are talking a big game, but they know (or at least should know) that they would have no chance. The major unions that impact NYC primaries (teachers and service employees) will be with the mayor and the minority vote (particularly the “Brooklyn black” vote) will be with the Mayor. He will have a clear path to at least 55% of the primary vote.What you will see is as follows:Republicans and Independents in New York actually get along. Sure there are some nut job teabaggers who will get behind a crazy person like John Castimitidas in the Republican primary, but overwhelmingly, Independents and Republicans know that they must work together if they want to win a City wide election.So the winning candidate in the Republican primary will be an independent who has the backing of much of the Republican power bases, just like the winning model Bloomberg used in 2001.And then comes the General. With a united Republican and Independent power base lined up behind the eventual nominee, against the mayor, that gets their candidate to about 45% of the vote in NYC and puts DeBlasio at about 40%, roughly 2-5% points higher above where he is polling right now.You will see a group of wealthy liberals (remember, those who don’t like the poor homeless people on their sidewalks) get behind the Reblican nominee (who is de facto an independent) forming what has not been seen in New York since the days of John Lindsay: “the Liberal line.”If you would like to beat DeBlasio, this is how its done! Looking at the numbers, and basing my conjecture off of my analysis, the perfect candidate would be:
1. Hispanic2. Independent (it's ok if he/she is a former Democrat)3. Able to raise $1 million so that matching funds are reached.
Watch someone like Adolfo Carrión, Jr...
