Rachel Bitecofer

Tweeter by Nancy Ohanian"Trump," wrote Tony Romm and Allyson Chiu at the Washington Post yesterday, "took to Twitter early Friday to condemn Minneapolis demonstrators as 'THUGS,' threaten military intervention and suggest it could lead to 'shooting,' prompting the social-media company to take the unprecedented step of

Did you know there's a big special election on May 12, two weeks from yesterday? Remember when Katie Hill resigned after a sex scandal. This is the special election to replace her until the November election decides who represents CA-25 (the Santa Clarita Valley, most of the Antelope Valley and most of Simi Valley) for the next two years. The winner of the special win face the loser of the special again in November.This is the perfect opportunity for the GOP to steal back a blue seat-- no incumbent and a dreadful Democratic candidate in what is expected to be a super-low turnout election.

The Democratic Party SuperPAC Priorities USA seems to have struck gold with their new ad, "Exponential Threat," successfully showing how Trump has mismanaged the response tp the pandemic. After they put around $6 million behind running it in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Florida, Trump threatened to sue the stations running it.

Rachel Bitecofer updated her November model this week, partially based on what she calls the mathematical inevitability of a Biden nomination. It shows a Democrat beating Trump in the electoral college 289-181. These are her projected Democratic votes in the half dozen most pro-Trump states:

I bet you don't think much about Andorra, do you? Moldava? Bhutan? Liechtenstein? Togo? Burkina Faso? But like Vatican City, each of these countries has a confirmed case of COVID-19. Cambodia has 2. Afghanistan 4. Albania 6. Russian 20. But do these numbers mean anything? Iran reports 7,161 cases, but a more accurate number might be 2,000,000. The U.S. reports 708 but the U.S. doesn't test so it could be many times more than than-- 10 times more?

I'm not a big fan of Beltway consultants or pundits or prognosticators. I am however, a big fan of Rachel Bitecofer.

Thursday morning both the NY Times and Washington Post led their political coverage with stories datelined Prole, Iowa, an unincorporated community in Warren County, northeast of Indianola. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Warren County-- just south of Des Moines-- pretty badly, 14,773 (54.9%) to 10,371 (38.5%). Last year Kim Reynolds (R) beat Fred Hubbell (D) there 52.8% to 45.1% in the gubernatorial race.

Saturday night, Status Quo Joe was doing the kind of campaigning he does, talking to well-off people at a fundraiser. This was was on Cape Cod. "There’s an awful lot of really good Republicans out there," he told his base. "I get in trouble for saying that with Democrats, but... every time we ever got in trouble with our administration, remember who got sent up to Capitol Hill to fix it? Me.

The new Economist/YouGov poll, released yesterday, has more bad news for the GOP. Favorability for congressional Democrats (37%) is 8 points higher than favorability for congressional Republicans (29%).