Iowa

When you woke up yesterday, Democrats were still sweating how to win back the state House of Representatives in 2020. There were 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats in the body so the Dems have to win 5 seats. That changed before everyone went beddie-bye. Now there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the House. One Republican switched parties-- and not just any Republican. Andy McKean is was the longest serving Republican in the state legislature-- 40 years. He re-registered as a Democrat. Why? Señor Trumpanzee, of course.

One of my friends called the other day and reminded me that I had first met Barack Obama when he was a state senator, soon after I had discovered that he wasn't an Israeli Irishman. He was running for the U.S. Senate and conventional wisdom said he had no chance at all. He was in 4th place in an 8 person race. Some friends and I put on a fundraiser for him here in L.A. where his presentation stunned everyone in the room. I recall that it cost $75 to get in. After he was done speaking, there was not a single flat surface in the house that wasn't taken by someone writing another check.

Eric GiddensSaturday, Beto O'Rourke was in Black Hawk County, Iowa campaigning for Eric Giddens in Cedar Falls. Eric Giddens, a school board member who heads the University of Northern Iowa’s energy programs, is in a hot special election tomorrow for an open state senate seat (district 30). He doesn't know Beto-- and Beto is hardly the only nationally known Democrat campaigning for him.

The GOP has long had a habit of putting it's most extreme members on the House Judiciary Committee-- crackpots like Matt Gaetz (FL), Louie Gohmert (TX), Andy Biggs (AZ), Ken Buck (CO), Jim Jordan (OH), Darrell Issa (CA) and, as you probably know by now, Steve King. Monday evening, the Republican Policy and Steering Committee voted unanimously to kick King off all his committees.

Steve King's Iowa district is very, very rural and very, very red. The PVI is R+11 and Trump beat Hillary there 60.9% to 33.5%, significantly outpolling both McCain (50.2%) and Romney (53.4%). Usually King wins in a walk and doesn't even campaign much. This past November, though, he nearly lost, first time candidate and progressive baseball player J.D. Scholten holding him to 50.4%, his smallest win number ever. If only the DCCC hadn't decided J.D.

Republican homophobic maniac Randy Feenstra may stop thinking about sex with men long enough to run against Steve KingAnthony Brindisi was a worthless New York state senator, beloved by the NRA and never shy about abandoning his own party when they tried passing progressive legislation and crossing the aisle to vote with the GOP. Perfect for the DCCC, right? Absolutely.

Thursday, I listed 50 House seats that the Democrats should be working towards flipping in 2020. I listed them in order, based on how badly the Republican winner had done.

Stormy weather aheadDemocrats targeted 2 Republican incumbents this cycle, Jason Lewis in the suburban district (MN-02) south of the Twin Cities and Erik Paulsen in the suburbs (MN-03) west, north and south of Minneapolis. They flipped both seats, each of which had been won twice by Obama. In 2016 Trump edged Hillary by a point in MN-02 and Hillary obliterated Trump by nearly 10 points in MN-03.

Yes, "House," so we won't be talking about Ted Cruz, the only Senate arch-villain up for reelection this cycle. Every House seat is up for reelection and a case could be made that's they're all arch-villains since they all enable Trump. Do they? Well, yes... but some enable Trump more than others. FiveThirtyEight has Trump adhesion scores and there are only 5 "perfect" scores.

Yes, "House," so we won't be talking about Ted Cruz, the only Senate arch-villain up for reelection this cycle. Every House seat is up for reelection and a case could be made that's they're all arch-villains since they all enable Trump. Do they? Well, yes... but some enable Trump more than others. FiveThirtyEight has Trump adhesion scores and there are only 5 "perfect" scores.