2020 presidential election

In 2016, Trump won Florida's 29 electoral votes by beating Hillary 4,617,886 (49.02%) to 4,504,975 (47.82), a 112,911 margin for the Orange Menace. Numerically the key to making up for that margin involves 3 things:

A new poll by the Military Times of active-duty service members shows Trump job favorability underwater, just 38% saying he's doing a good job. Officers have the most unfavorable view of Trump-- 59.1% disapproving. As for voting...

By 6 AM on Sunday, Trump was up and doing what he enjoys most-- raging at his political enemies on Twitter, screaming about cracking down on "agitators and thugs" (for him a synonym for protesters, people of color and Democrats) and fanning the flames of civil unrest.

A new poll for ABC News by Ipsos, isn't indicating that the conventions changed anyone's mind about Trump or Biden. Ipsos concluded that among all all Americans who watched at least some of the GOP convention-- about half of the voters-- responses to the RNC are more negative than the DNC.

On Friday night, Trump hosted another super-spreader event, this one in a crowded airport hanger in New Hampshire. In 2016, New Hampshire was essentially a 47-47% tie, although Hillary had a couple thousand more votes and won the states 4 electoral votes. Trump has always maintained he was ripped off and would win New Hampshire back in 2020. Polling doesn't indicate the race is even close in New Hampshire this year. Trump favorability is way underwater and the latest RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden beating him by nearly ten points.

If the election is a referendum on Trump, get ready for President Biden. If it's about Trump's handling of the pandemic, expect an landslide that will see Republicans at every level of government losing their offices. The Republicans know that, of course, and they are working make the election about anything else. They've settled on a bogus "law and order" narrative. Bogus because Trump is the most criminal president in history, presiding over the most criminal regime in American history.

This week David Feldman and I invited progressive super-activist and author Norman Solomon to be out guest on David's radio show. Norman explained how important it is to concentrate on the swing states and how any progressives thinking of not voting for the conservative and unsavory Biden should just focus on the existential danger of another Trump term and do the right thing for the country.

Amy Walter did some significant research for the Cook Report that was published yesterday.

by Thomas NeuburgerThe November election is shaping up as a mess no matter what happens. Forget the politics for a moment and consider just the logistics. From a practical standpoint, it will be next to impossible for any state that doesn't already do full-on vote-by-mail — which is most of them ­— to even conduct it.Almost all of the post-Covid primaries produced questionable results, even though Biden was by then the shoe-in nominee.

3 stoogesIf there is a "brain" behind the curtain of Kanye West's dysfunctional presidential campaign-- a blatant attempt to bolster Trump by drawing black and millennial voters away from Biden-- it is Jared Kushner.