2018 congressional races

GOP base strategy works with hardcore Republican voters, but not with normal peopleThis morning when Trump tried bragging about his magnificence, the UN General Assembly burst out in sustained, audible laughter. No, Señor T, you're not in Kansas anymore.

This morning we took a look at the lay of the land nationally (and in two bellweather Midwestern states, Minnesota and Iowa). Unless they're the kind of worthless polls the NY Times is doing now, I prefer district polling to get a better idea of what's going to happen in November.

Longtime Harlem Congressman Charlie Rangel (retired) was on the air with John Catsimatidis yesterday and he explained what Trump, a former campaign contributor of his, has done to the political system. "It is a terrible thing because it doesn’t give Americans an opportunity to vote on the issues. It’s either you’re for Trump or against Trump...

Trump says his healthcare "plan"--he has no plan, just more gas-lighting-- is to give Americans "really great stuff" for really low prices. What he says and what Republicans have done and continue to do is exactly the opposite. This morning I was going back and forth with Alan Grayson on the best way forward for the American healthcare system.

Triage-- another one bites, another one bites, another one bites the dust. The NRCC, looking to toss dead-weight overboard, pulled all their remains broadcast ads for incumbent Keith Rothfus in PA-17. Under the newly drawn boundaries the district has an R+3 PVI and Obama would have lost it both times. Trump beat Hillary in those boundaries 49.4% to 46.8%. But district polling shows virtually no path to victory for incumbent Keith Rothfus, a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler at a time when it isn't viable to be a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler.

PAYGO doesn't preclude impeachment, but it does preclude Medicare-for-All. There is virtually no support among Democratic voters for PAYGO... other than, perhaps, some of Pelosi's big donors. And yet... in her top 3 priorities if the Democrats win the House in November... PAYGO. But no Medicare for All.

Does that graph look nice to you? The point that Axios is making is that Democrats are "riding a surge of enthusiasm in opposition to [SeñorTrumpanzee], more Democrats turned out in the primaries for House elections than Republicans this year-- the first time that has happened since 2008.

Today New Jersey's congressional delegation is made up of 7 Democrats and 5 Republicans. Not one of the Democrats is being seriously challenged for reelection-- in fact two, Bill Pacsrell and have no opponents at all. Two of the Republicans, Frank LoBiondo and Don Payne, have no opponent at all. Other Democrats have only pro forma opposition.

Andrew Janz hasn't exactly been one of my favorite candidates this cycle. I spoke with him early in the cycle and he admitted to me that he's really conservative. Some DC consultants have since polished him up a bit and taught him how to talk to Democrats-- and not to talk to people like me.

This year, the Republicans will do anything-- and apparently everything-- to avoid talking about issues. (Unless you consider the Ron DeSantis ad above-- yes that is a real ad than ran on television statewide in Florida-- an "issues" ad.) Kara Eastman and Beto O'Rourke had punk rock bands in high school and college. Jared Golden got a tattoo (with his unit fighting on the front lines in Afghanistan). Beto also skateboards and likes women with dyed hair... and eats BBQ-ed tofu... This is all crazy.