Yesterday, the Cook Report's Amy Walter wrote that Florida has moved from "Toss Up" to "Leans Democrat." She doesn't really believe it; it isn't part of the Cook ideology. Florida can't be leaning Democrat-- even if their own metrics show that it is. "It’s not just Trump," she admitted, "who has seen his numbers slump as the state has struggled to contain the virus this summer. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has seen a drastic change in his political fortunes from spring to summer. A Quinnipiac poll released this week found DeSantis’ job approval rating at just 41 percent favorable to 52 percent unfavorable-- a 19 point shift in negative opinion since April. That July Quinnipiac poll found Biden leading Trump by 20 points on who is best able to handle the coronavirus, including an eight-point lead with those 65 and older. For months, Trump has questioned the severity of this crisis. But in Florida, 83 percent of voters see coronavirus as a serious problem, and 66 percent are very, or somewhat worried that they will get this virus. The only group not taking coronavirus seriously are Republican voters; 52 percent say they think the virus is under control."And Florida isn't the only state where support for the Republican Party is collapsing for a myriad of reasons, none of which include any efforts of the Biden campaign ir the Democratic Party. At Axios, David Nather looked at how governors of Arizona, Georgia and Texas-- as well as Florida-- are losing the confidence of their citizens."The governors in four of the states hit hardest by the coronavirus," he wrote, "have taken a massive hit in public approval over their handling of the pandemic... Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp-- all Republicans-- saw their ratings take a nosedive this month as coronavirus cases skyrocketed in their states... The key to the sharp declines for the four GOP governors was a softening in their support among Republicans, according to SurveyMonkey chief research officer Jon Cohen. In Texas, 69% of Republicans still approve of Abbott's handling of the virus, he said, but that's down from 89% right after Memorial Day... The political damage from the coronavirus won't just be a factor in the presidential election. It's going to affect the political standing-- and the legacies-- of the governors in the hardest-hit states, too."Frankly, I don't care too much about the legacies of Ron DeSantis, Greg Abbott, Doug Ducey and Brian Kemp-- unless Kemp's includes a long stint in prison for election fraud. But what I do care about is how a toxic combination of gubernatorial incompetence and ideological anti-science policy and all that emanates from the Trump Regime, impacts the 2020 down-ballot races. Earlier today, for example, we saw how Bob Lynch, a Democratic candidate for the state House in Miami-Dade, saw how devastating that combination will be for the GOP at the ballot box: "This is not a year where we should be listening to the traditional handicapping of state legislative races," he told me today. "The catastrophic incompetence of the Trump and DeSantis’ administration has brought our state to the brink of ruin. We’ve had more Floridians die of COVID-19 than every single hurricane in the state’s history combined. Where the hell is the state House? Where is Danny Perez? Why is the state legislature not doing anything to hold these people accountable and save lives and jobs? Because all of the Republicans are complicit, especially the ones in future leadership roles. Anyone who is only looking at so called 'winnable' races based on outdated metrics is missing the big picture and an opportunity for real change in the state of Florida. And it is precisely races like mine that donors should be focusing on because the return on investment is much higher and the capital required is far lower. I will continue to hang Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis around my opponent's neck like a millstone because he is responsible for enabling their incompetence and corruption. People relying on PVI or past breakdowns are living in a different reality. The situation is really bad here and we are entirely controlled by Republicans at the state level. No excuses."Again-- it isn't just Florida. Look at this Cook chart of district ratings changes. With the single exception Matt Cunningham, all of the Democrats mentioned are godawful and undeserving of another term in Congress or, at best, just a mediocre waste of a seat. Yet, all are rated as more likely to win reelection now than they were last month. Why? Nothing any of them did. It's just Trump. And the Republicans mentioned? All are now less likely to win reelection. With the single exception of Roger Williams (the Yoho accomplice) none of them did anything different from what they always do to earn a downgrade. But a combination of Trump, GOP governance and their own spineless enabling of both have made it more likely that they will lose in November.Kara Eastman is seeing the same kind of thing in Omaha, where she's running for a seat (NE-02, which Cook moved from "lean R" to "toss up") occupied by a total knee-jerk Trump enabler, Donald J Bacon. "People," she told me this morning, "aren’t stupid. When they see Republican elected officials ignoring Trump’s mishandling of this crisis, they get angry. Real leaders should be able to call out mismanagement wherever they see it. Sadly, most Republican leaders are afraid to cross Trump. Their silence only enables his horrible deeds."
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