Before we even get to 2020, there are likely to be some special elections-- maybe very quickly. Mark Meadows could take the White House chief of staff job, although his blood red North Carolina district, the 11th, is not competitive and would be an utter waste of resources for the Democrats. Go a bit to the east, to NC-09, and there's a very different kind of district, one that is trending purple and where a Democrat can. Now that Mark Harris has been exposed as a vote thief, it's unlikely he'll ever be seated in Congress and even he's talking about a new election. It's a shame the Democrat in that race, Dan McCready, is a worthless Blue Dog, but he probably would win a special election relatively easily. The third likely special would be in central Florida, FL-15, where another Republican, Ross Spano, has been exposed in an election fraud scheme. Then there are the 2 districts-- NY-27 and CA-50-- where GOP incumbents are facing criminal charges likely to result in, at the very minimum, resignations that will trigger special elections. The progressive Democrats who nearly beat them last month, Nate McMurray and Ammar Campa-Najjar, have both decided to run again. Keeping mind, McMurray nearly beat Chris Collins; only 2,560 votes separating them-- with McMurray winning the biggest (Erie) and third biggest (Ontario) counties in the district (as well as the Rochester suburbs). Campa-Najjar also out-performed expectations and scored 48.3 to Duncan Hunter's 51.7%, despite active sabotage from the DCCC. So let's leave the first 3 districts out of consideration for now and remember that CA-27 and CA-50 are both "lean prison."Bernie is going to need a progressive Congress to help pass his platform in 2020 when he becomes president-- more members like Alexandria Ocasio, Ro Khanna, Raul Grijalva, Pramila Jayapal, Ted Lieu, Rashida Tlaib, Jamie Raskin, Mark Pocan, Mark DeSaulnier, Ayanna Pressley, Katherine Clark, Jim McGovern, Adriano Espaillat... and fewer Blue Dogs and New Dems from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party, faux Democrats who oppose Bernie programs like Medicare-for-All, free state colleges, Job Guarantee, the Green New Deal, etc. They will vote with the Republicans against these proposals-- which is why the 2020 cycle primaries, some of which are starting right now-- are so important.The districts below are Republican-held seats that Democrats nearly won in November. They didn't win for various reasons. The DCCC deflated voter enthusiasm in several by insisting on putrid Blue Dogs (like KS-02). The DCCC adamantly refused to help progressives in almost all their races. Speaking of the DCCC, don't you think they would have figured out that running a Latino candidate in TX-23-- which has a 71% Latino population would be a good idea? Instead, they opposed the (progressive) Latino in the run-off and backed a (moderate) Filipina-American with a Mexican-sounding middle name... who lost. And in some districts, incompetent candidates ran bad campaigns.
• KS-02- Steve Watkins- 48.1%• TX-23- Will Hurd- 49.2%• NY-27- Chris Collins- 49.4%• GA-07- Rob Woodall- 50.1%• MI-06- Fred Upton- 50.2%• MN-01- Jim Hagedorn- 50.2%• TX-21- Chip Roy- 50.3%• IA-04- Steve King- 50.4%• IL-13- Rodney Davis- 50.5%• TX-31- John Carter- 50.6%• TX-24- Kenny Marchant- 50.7%• MN-08- Peter Stauber- 50.8%• TX-10- Michael McCaul- 50.9%• Montana- Greg Gianforte- 50.9%• NE-02- Don Bacon- 51.0%• KY-06- Andy Barr- 51.0%• PA-01- Brian Fitzpatrick- 51.3%• MO-02- Ann Wagner- 51.3%• NC-02- George Holding- 51.4%• TX-22- Pete Olson- 51.4%• PA-10- Scott Perry- 51.4%• PA-16- Mike Kelly- 51.5%• NC-13- Ted Budd- 51.6%• OH-12- Troy Balderson- 51.6%• CO-03- Scott Tipton- 51.7%• CA-50- Duncan Hunter- 51.7%• IL-12- Mike Bost- 51.8%• OH-01- Steve Chabot- 51.8%• AR-02- French Hill- 52.1%• NY-01- Lee Zeldin- 52.5%• CA-22- Devin Nunes- 52.7%• TX-02- Dan Crenshaw- 52.9%• WA-03- Jaime Herrera Beutler- 52.9%• FL-15- Ross Spano- 53.0%• NY-24- John Katko- 53.1%• TX-06- Ron Wright- 53.1%• NY-02- Peter King- 53.3%• Alaska- Don Young- 53.3%• VA-05- Denver Riggleman- 53.3%• TX-25- Roger Williams- 53.6%• MI-07- Tim Walberg- 53.8%• CA-04- Tom McClintock-54.1%• FL-18- Brian Mast- 54.3%• TX-03- Van Taylor- 54.3%• MI-03- Justin Amash- 54.4%• WI-01- Bryan Steil- 54.6%• FL-16- Vern Buchanan- 54.6%• IN-02- Jackie Walorski- 54.8%• CA-01- Doug LaMalfa- 54.9%
Blue America and other progressive groups have been working diligently to recruit solid progressives to run in these districts. Expect official announcements to start right after the holidays, but I'm all but certain-- no, I'm certain-- that Mike Siegel (TX-10), Kara Eastman (NE-02) and Audrey Denney (CA-01) will be running again. I was hoping J.D. Scholten would take on Steve King again in IA-04, but it's more likely that J.D.'s going to run against Joni Ernst in the Senate race. Peter King (Long Island) will have a progressive opponent and so will John Katko (Syracuse). Fred Upton (MI-06) might as well start packing his bags; it looks like local activists have persuaded state Rep Jon Hoadley to run. It's early; we're just getting started. Let me know if you have any ideas in your own district-- downwithtyranny@gmail.com/This is important. And this cycle it will be even more important
