As far as we know, so far Sean Eldridge spent $4,659,027 in his failed NY-19 congressional run ($2,840,000 of which was from his personal wealth). His opponent, Chris Gibson, who spent $1,798,884, was an early DCCC target because the district has a PVI of D+1 and because Obama won the district twice, 175,800 (53%) to 150,359 (45%) against McCain and 157,279 (52%) to 138,384 (46%) against Romney. Problem though, is that while Obama was racking up an almost 20,000 vote margin in 2012, Gibson beat the DCCC's Red-to-Blue candidate, Julian Schreibman, by over 15,000 votes. That same Obama-electorate gave Gibson a 150,245 (53%) to 134,295 (47%) win. Still, the Beltway rule of thumb is that if an incumbent loses with less than 55% of the vote, they are a likely target the following year).Schriebman's campaign had spent $1,331,223 to Gibson's $2,153,689-- and Democratic outside groups, primarily the DCCC and their House Majority PAC, spent $2,024,284 attacking Gibson while Republican outside groups spent $1,778,882 attacking Schreibman. This time, by recruiting a multimillionaire, the DCCC knew they wouldn't have to spend money in NY-19. They got poor naive Eldridge to hire all their crooked, high-priced consultants and it didn't cost them a nickel. Republican outside groups smeared Eldridge mercilessly (to the tune of $1,383,794), from the suburbs of Troy and Albany down the Hudson through Saugerties, Woodstock, Kingston, Rhinebeck and New Paltz to just before Poughkeepsie and west into the Catskills to Ellenville, Fallsburg, Monticello and up to Oneonta and Cooperstown. They-- the NRCC, Chamber of Commerce, the NRA and even the Environmental Defense Fund-- spent another $726,943 on ads bolstering Gibson.The result was catastrophic for Eldridge, a Steve Israel mystery meat candidate who's campaign was off to a terrible start and went straight downhill from there. In the end, Sean was played for a fool by the DCCC. He spent a fortune on their worthless consultants and wound up with far fewer votes than Schreibman had two years earlier-- in fact less than half the voter Schreibman got and far less support among Democrats:
• Chris Gibson- 124,428 (64.99%)• Sean Eldridge- 67,024 (35.01%)
Eldridge, who lives in Lower Manhattan but bought a $2 million house in Ulster County to make a run in the rural district somewhat more plausible, hopes to try again in 2016 when an extremely popular Hillary Clinton is on the top of the ticket. But someone who fared so poorly? Really? Nonpartisan polling a week before the election showed that even some Democrats in the district didn't much like him-- which was borne out on election day.
A week before Election Day, Republican Representative Chris Gibson continues to hold a commanding lead over Democrat Sean Eldridge. Gibson holds a 58-35 percent lead, virtually unchanged from his 57-33 percent lead seven weeks ago, according to a new Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of likely 19th C.D. voters released today. By a 60-25 percent margin, voters have a favorable view of Gibson, whereas Eldridge divides voters, with 33 percent viewing him favorably and 35 percent unfavorably.“Gibson heads into the final week of the campaign largely unscathed and with a commanding 23-point lead over Eldridge,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “Over the last seven weeks, the Eldridge campaign has gained little or no traction with practically any constituency.“Gibson has overwhelming support from 86 percent of Republicans, strong support from 60 percent of independents, and even has the support of more than one-quarter of Democrats, all virtually the same as the previous Time Warner Cable News/Siena poll,” Greenberg said. “He maintains a 13-point lead in the Ulster/Dutchess portion of the district and better than two-to-one leads in the other regions. He has a dominating 42-pont lead with men and leads among women by nine points. He leads by more than 20 points with voters 55 and older and has an even larger lead with voters younger than 55,” Greenberg said.“As mailboxes across the 19th C.D. have been stuffed with literature promoting and attacking each candidate, and as airways have been flooded with both warm and fuzzy commercials and attack ads, Eldridge has become known to more voters. Unfortunately for him, there are as many voters that view him unfavorably as view him favorably,” Greenberg said. “Gibson, who was well known throughout the district at the beginning of the campaign, continues to hold a better than two-to-one favorability rating.“While Eldridge is viewed strongly favorably by Democrats and strongly unfavorably by Republicans, Gibson is viewed overwhelmingly favorably by Republicans and independents, even as Democrats are closely divided on their view of Gibson,” Greenberg said.
Although Steve Israel screwed him in the end and took him off the Red-to-Blue list, compare Eldridge's final results with those of Israel's final triaged dozen candidates:
• Sean Eldridge (NY-19)- 35.01%• Gwen Graham (FL-02)- 50.44%• Staci Appel (IA-03)- 42.33%• Kathleen Rice (NY-04), who fit no crier of "Red to Blue"- 52.71%• Domenic Recchia (NY-11)- 42.13%• James Lee Witt (AR-04)- 42.59%• Pete Aguilar (CA-31)- 51.36%• Jim Mowrer (IA-04)- 38.27%• Brad Ashford (NE-2)- 48.64%• Manan Trivedi (PA-06)- 43.77%• Nick Casey (WV-02)- 43.88%• Emily Cain (ME-02), who fit no crier of "Red to Blue"- 41.82%• Seth Moulton (MA-06), who fit no crier of "Red to Blue"- 54.65%
That's right, even in a D+1 district, Eldridge wound up with the lowest percentage, even measured against candidates who ran in R+15 (Witt) and R+11 (Casey) districts! It was a bad year for Democrats-- but not as bad as it was for Sean Eldridge. I'm hearing EMILY's List is already recruiting a candidate to beat Eldridge in the 2016 primary if he tries to run again. Maybe he can buy a house in the Hamptons next so he can take on far right freshman Republican Lee Zeldin, the only non-Christian in the next GOP House caucus-- and an easier race for Eldridge, who will certainly fit in better than he did in the Catskills. He might even seem authentic in that district. And it's closer to Manhattan.