The theory is that fewer young voters, fewer minority voters, fewer single women, fewer poor people turn out for midterms. These groups tend to vote Democratic-- and the groups that do turn out-- elderly whites, more well-off people, ideologically driven extremists-- tend to vote for Republicans. There are two things Democratic candidates can do: try to win over the likely voters or try to turn out their own base in greater numbers. A Democratic Party gloom and doom scenario, Conservative voters key to Dems 2014 strategy, by Alex Isenstadt in Politico this morning indicates that many Democrats are not going to fight to turn out the base but are going the easy route-- even though the easy route is a route to proven and catastrophic failure.The Elizabeth Warren/Bernie Sanders/Alan Grayson model is being abandoned for the Steve Israel model, that never works for Democrats and is sure to lead to dismal failure in November again. "It’s one thing," writes Isenstadt, "for Democrats running in red parts of the country to sound like Republicans on the campaign trail. It’s another when Democrats running in purple or even blue territory try to do so. Yet that’s what’s happening in race after race this season. Faced with a treacherous political environment, many Democrats are trotting out campaign ads that call for balanced budgets, tax cuts and other more traditionally GOP positions. Some of them are running in congressional districts that just two years ago broke sharply for President Barack Obama."Steve Israel's DCCC premise is-- and has always been-- that vulnerable Democrats will survive if they can appeal to conservative voters. For Israel there were no lessons learned in 2010 when Democrats used this strategy and lost 63 House seats (of which 52 were incumbents) and control of the House. Almost every one of them followed the DCCC's advise to appeal to conservative voters and take the base for granted. The base didn't turn out to vote for Republican-lite candidates and-- voila! Speaker Boehner! Democrats who had spent the whole session voting conservative and then campaigned conservative and then lost their seats included:
• Bobby Bright (Blue Dog-AL)• Ann Kirkpatrick (New Dem-AZ)• Harry Mitchell (Blue Dog-AZ)• John Salazar (Blue Dog-CO)• Betsy Markey (Blue Dog-CO)• Allen Boyd (Blue Dog-FL)• Suzanne Kosmas (FL)• Jim Marshall (Blue Dog-GA)• Walt Minnick (Blue Dog-ID)• Melissa Bean (New Dem-IL)• Debbie Halvorson (New Dem-IL)• Bill Foster (New Dem-IL)• Baron Hill (Blue Dog-IN)• Frank Kratovil (Blue Dog-MD)• Travis Childers (Blue Dog-MS)• Gene Taylor (Blue Dog-MS)• Ike Skelton (MO)• Dina Titus (NV)• John Adler (Blue Dog-NJ)• Harry Teague (Blue Dog-NM)• Michael McMahon (Blue Dog-NY)• Scott Murphy (Blue Dog-NY)• Mike Arcuri (New Dem-NY)• Dan Maffei (New Dem-NY)• Bob Etheridge (Blue Dog-NC)• Earl Pomeroy (Blue Dog-ND)• Steve Driehaus (OH)• Charlie Wilson (Blue Dog-OH)• John Boccieri (Blue Dog-OH)• Zack Space (Blue Dog-OH)• Kathy Dahlkemper (Blue Dog-PA)• Patrick Murphy (Blue Dog-PA)• Chris Carney (Blue Dog-PA)• Paul Kanjorski (PA)• John Spratt (SC)• Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (Blue Dog-SD)• Lincoln Davis (Blue Dog-TN)• Glenn Nye (Blue Dog-VA)• Tom Perriello (VA)• Rick Boucher (VA)
And that list doesn't count all the conservative Dems who raised the white flag before the onslaught and retired-- in every case consigning their seat to a Republican: Marion Berry (Blue Dog-AR), Vic Snyder (AR), Brad Ellsworth (Blue Dog-IN), Dennis Moore (Blue Dog-KS), Charlie Melancon (Blue Dog-LA), Bart Stupak (MI), Barton Gordon (Blue Dog-TN), John Tanner (Blue Dog-TN), and Brian Baird (WA). On top of that, the DCCC was-- as they are this cycle-- pushing conservative challengers. They all lost too, like Mike Oliverio (Blue Dog-WV), Ami Bera (New Dem-CA), Lori Edwards (New Dem-FL), Dan Seals (New Dem-IL), Gary McDowell (Blue Dog-MI), Manan Trivedi (New Dem-PA), and Suzan DelBene (New Dem-WA). The DCCC is following that exact same game plan, step by step-- and some cases with the same pathetic characters-- this year and some are delusional enough to think they have some kind of chance for a different outcome. They do not.
“It’s a different kind of electorate,” said Ben Tulchin, a San Francisco-based Democratic pollster. “If you’re running in a competitive district as a Democrat in a nonpresidential year, you want to strike a more moderate tone.”Colorado Democrat Andrew Romanoff, who’s running in a district that Obama won in 2012 and 2008, has started airing a commercial that strikes a tea party theme. It highlights his record as speaker of the state House of Representatives when, he says, he helped balance the state’s budget.“It’s really pretty simple. You don’t buy things you can’t pay for,” Romanoff states.As Romanoff narrates, a graph of the nation’s soaring debt pops up on the screen. The image looks strikingly similar to one that appears in a Web video Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan released in 2011 to sell his controversial budget plan, though a Romanoff spokeswoman insisted that the campaign hadn’t borrowed from the former GOP vice presidential contender.New Hampshire Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, whose district broke for Obama by a yawning 11-percentage-point margin in 2012, is running an ad that touts her support for small-business tax cuts while showing her touring a local microbrewery. Separately, former Iowa state Sen. Staci Appel, in a district Obama won by 4 percentage points two years ago, underscores her record of fighting overspending in state government, a populist theme often heard from tea party-aligned conservatives.Democratic Rep. Ron Barber, in a swing southern Arizona district that is slightly more conservative than the others, uses his first TV spot [up top] to highlight his support for increasing border security funds. The ad-- complete with the image of a border patrol car-- doesn’t mention elements of immigration reform that are typically more popular among Democratic voters.Like the commercials aired by Romanoff, Kuster and Appel, Barber’s doesn’t mention his Democratic Party affiliation.Democrats who have the especially high hurdle of competing in deep-red districts are striking multiple conservative themes. Democrat Patrick Henry Hays, the North Little Rock mayor who’s running in an Arkansas district that Mitt Romney won in 2012, uses his first TV ad to discuss the need for a balanced budget, limited government regulations and less wasteful spending. Like Romanoff, Hays includes a graphic to depict the national debt.“I approve this message because it’s simple,” Hays says. “You cut waste, you pay your bills, and you do everything in your power to create jobs. That’s what we need in Congress.”…Some Democrats also argue that, with so many Republican candidates-- pushed by tea party forces-- staking out positions further and further to the right, there’s room for Democratic hopefuls to appeal to centrist Republican voters who feel alienated.“There’s an an opening among moderates that mainstream Democrats are well positioned to fill,” said Robby Mook, a former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee executive director.Not all Democrats are happy with the approach. Andrew Myers, a Washington, D.C.-based Democratic pollster, said that by focusing on issues such as balancing the budget, the party was losing an opportunity to lay out clear distinctions with congressional Republicans, who are wallowing in national surveys.“We need to differentiate ourselves, and taking the Republican line doesn’t do it,” he said.Republicans say the Democratic strategy carries risks, especially if the candidates can’t back up the image they’re trying to present.In response to Romanoff’s ad, the National Republican Congressional Committee sent out a news release on Wednesday pointing to his past support for the $787 billion economic stimulus package and stating that “It’s dishonest for Andrew Romanoff to criticize the mountain of government debt he helped create.”“It’s pretty clear why Democrats would charade as Republicans in districts coast to coast-- on every big issue, voters prefer Republicans to Democrats,” said Liesl Hickey, the NRCC’s executive director. “But by portraying themselves as something they are not, these Democrats are playing a dangerous game that is destined to backfire with voters.”
