Trump has an historically low approval ranking among likely voters, particularly likely voters in battleground districts. (Who cares what people think of him in New York City or L.A. or in Alabama or Wyoming?) Last week's Quinnipiac poll shows him a heavy albatross around the necks of Republican candidates in swing districts. Voters disapprove of the job he's doing 53-41%, a couple of points word than in early September. And what matters most is that independent voters disapprove 53-37% (46% strongly disapproving).Though Trump is absolutely toxic in purple districts, NY Times' Maggie Haberman reported that the White House political director, Bill Stepien, wrote a memo stating that Republican candidates who are looking for a path to victory need to 'boldly align' themselves with Trump, who is popular with Republican voters.Democrats are hopeful they will. Ted Lieu (D-CA), one of the sharpest political minds in the country-- and the DCCC regional vice chair for the west coast-- told us "the 2018 midterm elections are primarily about one thing: Donald Trump. November will be a referendum on the job the President and his party are doing. Americans express their support or displeasure with the governing party. During a time of relatively low unemployment it is unheard of for the party in power to be so despised. But this is where we are-- Trump’s numbers are under water in purple districts across the country. This tells me that Americans are anxious about other things besides the economy. They are concerned about Trump’s temperament and lack of basic decency, the instability he creates around the globe, and his assault on our democratic norms and institutions. Voters are smart. They know that Trump inherited a pretty darn good economy from Barack Obama; and yet what did he do with it? Did he increase workers wages with a big infrastructure package? Did he tackle the student debt crisis? Make healthcare more affordable? Pay down the national debt? Nope. He and his Republican enablers in Congress passed a hugely unpopular tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and continue to undermine the Affordable Care Act. So on top of issues with Trump’s character and temperament, these policies are also very unpopular (and don’t even get me started on Russia).I sincerely hope that Republicans in purple districts take the advice of the White House political director and embrace Donald Trump. Nothing could be better for us here in California as we try to lead the blue wave this November. Southern CA in particular will be the epicenter of this blue tsunami coming to take back control of the House. I wouldn’t bet on seeing Trump show his face at a rally in CA-25 or CA-39 any time soon. But heck, if Trump wants to come out to Orange County to do one of his toxic rallies, I will pay for the permit fees.Randy Bryce wouldn't mind seeing Trump come to southeast Wisconsin-- if only to remind voters of all the broken promises and the rubber-stamp Republicans who support him in Congress. "Donald Trump," he told us, "gave Bryan Steil his complete endorsement as soon as he won the Republican primary. I’m hopeful he comes to campaign for him with great frequency. People who voted for him based on his promise to 'drain the swamp' have seen that what he’s replaced the swamp water with is more toxic. He really showed us what he’s all about in his recent mocking of a woman that he deemed 'credible' while telling her story of being sexually assaulted. The man has no decency."David Keith, Bryce's campaign manager told me today that he would be thrilled if Trump does a rally in Racine or Kenosha or Janesville. "We want him to come," he said. "Voters in this district went heavily for Bernie Sanders in 2016 and Bernie has come here to campaign with Randy and endorse him. People want Change, but have seen the devastation Trump's interpretation of Change means for working families here. Where are the lower prices for prescription drugs he promised? Where's "the best healthcare in the world" he promised during the campaign? Where are the jobs he promised? The ones he and Scott Walker have 'created' are low-paying and can't support a family."Trump will hold his election rallies to help rally his supporters in contested congressional districts in Nevada, Minnesota, Kansas, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Kentucky.
Stepien acknowledged that a recent study by the veteran pollster Neil Newhouse, commissioned by the Republican National Committee, showed a troublesome climate for Republicans, with a clear enthusiasm edge for Democrats.“Republicans are not currently enthusiastic about casting a ballot for their party’s candidates this November,” he wrote. “Needless to say, that’s a significant problem for the Republican Party.” He also referred to the losses that parties in power have historically faced.But in the memo, Mr. Stepien suggested that candidates distancing themselves from the president are not capitalizing on one of the factors in the Republicans’ favor in the fall — the “historically optimistic mood of the American people” as measured in a “historical context,” a reference to polling data showing how many people believe the country is on the right track versus the wrong track.He put the benchmark number that has been a harbinger for how midterm elections will turn out at 40 percent of people believing the country is going in the right direction. Right now, according to polling averages, that is what the number is, he wrote.He added, “With Americans supporting the direction of the country at historically high levels-- but with Republican voters clearly lagging in enthusiasm-- the path forward is clear; Republican candidates need to closely, clearly and boldly align themselves with the policies that have provided Americans with this historic level of directional optimism.”Minnesota, where the president will travel on Thursday for a campaign rally in Rochester, is an example of two congressional races where the candidates are taking decidedly different approaches.Representative Jason Lewis, a Republican from the Second Congressional District in Minnesota, has asked to join the president at the event, aides to Mr. Trump said. By contrast, Representative Erik Paulsen, a five-term incumbent from the Third Congressional District has put distance between himself and the president.In an early campaign ad over the summer, Mr. Paulsen highlighted his break with Mr. Trump on certain issues, a fact that Mr. Trump’s advisers see as hurting him, though New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls have shown both Mr. Lewis and Mr. Paulsen trailing their Democratic challengers. But one Republican strategist involved in congressional races, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to be candid, noted that Mr. Trump was struggling for support in Mr. Paulsen’s district.Progressive Democrat Katie Porter: "My opponent Mimi Walters has welcomed Donald Trump to campaign in Orange County. This would be a great reminder to voters in the 45th district that she votes 99% of the time with Trump, not with them."“Watch closely where the president has and will campaign; you will see the president aggressively campaigning in districts with candidates who enthusiastically embrace the policies that have put America on the pathway to prosperity,” Mr. Stepien wrote. “These are candidates who understand what it takes to win-- and the president is eager to play his part in helping them.”
Mike Siegel, the TX-10 progressive Democrat hopes Trump comes to his district to campaign for Michael McCaul. "I'm running against an incumbent, Michael McCaul, who likes to present himself as a more 'moderate' or 'reasonable' Republican, but who votes with Donald Trump 98.9% of the time. If Trump were to come to Austin or Houston, it would only highlight McCaul's hypocrisy, and his complicity in Family Separation policies, attacks on healthcare, and tax cuts for the rich."
