-emorej a Hong KongProgressives need to prepare, psychologically and organizationally, for the likelihood that election day will not be the last, or even the biggest, road-fork of the next six months. Others, when progressive responses can be influential, will include the following:
• Post-Mortem debates on reforming the Presidential nomination process;• TPP being "considered" and passed by lame-duck bribed and bullied Congress;• Impeachment of President Hillary (TPP + ongoing leaks + recession = zero honeymoon);• President Kaine nominating a new Vice-President (from options discussed below);• Realignment of the present two-party dominated national electoral landscape.
After President Hillary:
• Fails to credibly distance herself from Obama passing the TPP through post-election lame-duck session of Congress; and• Is blamed for the pain of the (hopefully gradual) recessionary end of current economic recovery;
… The Republican majority in House of Representatives will impeach Hillary because this can:
• Win support from many Trump voters and non-voters; and• Demonstrate alignment against "illegal" or "should be illegal" cover-ups and, more broadly, against business-as-usual;
… Senate vote on impeachment will probably pass (unless Hillary resigns "for health reasons") because:
• Senators of both parties will need to distance themselves from all the above; and• Democratic Senators will need to overcome voters’ increased awareness of alternative policies and voting strategies in light of the establishment sell-outs, media cover-ups, election rigging;
... President Kaine, in selecting a new Vice-Presidential nominee, will need to choose between alternatives like the following:
• Double-down on identity-focused Democratic Party electoral coalition-building by nominating a "moderate" Black (Booker) or (more likely) Latino (Castro, etc.); or• Keep Bernie-supporters in the Democratic Party by nominating somebody they respect (many Senators, and perhaps Wall Street, would be happy to end Senate committee appearances by Bernie or E. Warren, and resulting videoed interrogations of bankers and other malefactors); or• Deepen recent realignment, under a single all-in centrist ruling party, by nominating an establishment Republican (OH-Sen Rob Portman would probably be his first choice, followed by OH-Gov John Kasich, from a policy perspective, while Latina Female NM-Gov Susana Martinez would be an identity two-fer).
Kaine’s decision will be influenced by the narrowness of Trump’s defeat, for example:
• A big Trump loss would: (a) Give confidence to Portman & Kasich that they can regain control of the Republican Party, and (b) Give confidence to Kaine that he can be re-elected in 2020 by relying on an identity-focused coalition.• A narrow Trump loss would: (a) Convince Trump voters that the election was stolen from him, (b) Convince Bernie-supporters and Bernie-sympathizers that the Democratic establishment is not only ever-more corrupt but also ever-less electable, and (c) Convince Portman & Kasich that they need a home such as an even-more-centrist Democratic Party.
Lame-duck mobilization of anti-TPP sentiment will make a difference:
• If TPP passage in done in the face of Progressive-organized big anti-TPP demonstrations and strikes, which then get even bigger, then Kaine would probably regard a VP-nomination like Bernie or E.Warren as a small price to pay in order to restore calm.• The rage of White tribalists supporting Trump will find outlets. The less of it that can be channeled into anti-TPP activism, the more of it will flow into racist sentiment and activities.