You probably heard about the assertion MSNBC founder Tom Rogers and former Colorado Senator Timothy Wirth have been putting out there about how Trump and Barr are planning to steal the election after Trump loses so that they can retain power. It's interesting and it's more or less plausible and you can read the whole thing at the link just above. Let me skip the first steps and get right down to the votes having been cast and Trump having lost significantly. The plot would play out with Barr starting an investigation into what happened with the intention of Republican controlled states not appointing electors by the December 14 deadline, "the very issue that the Supreme Court harped on in Bush v. Gore in ruling that the election process had to be brought to a close, thus forbidding the further counting of Florida ballots. All four swing states Trump won-- Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania-- have Republican control of both their upper and lower houses of their state legislatures. Those state legislatures refuse to allow any Electoral College slate to be certified until Barr's phony "national security" investigation is complete. The Dems start bleating like sheep but the Trumpist Supreme Court-- unless Roberts decides he's a patriot-- just makes the decision that the Electoral College must meet anyway and cast its votes, which it does. But without Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania electors, neither Biden nor Trump has sufficient votes to get an Electoral College majority. That throws the election to the House of Representatives. Here's where it gets interesting:
• The vote in the House is by state delegation, where each delegation casts one vote, which is determined by the majority of the representatives in that state.• Currently, there are 26 states that have a majority Republican House delegation. 23 states have a majority Democratic delegation. There is one state, Pennsylvania, that has an evenly split delegation. Even if the Democrats were to pick up seats in Pennsylvania and hold all their 2018 House gains, the Republicans would have a 26 to 24 delegation majority.• This vote would enable Trump to retain the presidency.
No one seems to have checked Rogers' and Wirth's work, but it's a bit confused and not quite as straight forward as they present it to be. First of all, which congressional delegation votes, the one that was sworn in in 2019 or the one that hasn't been sworn in yet? That makes a big difference. They assume it's the new delegations, which is probably a lot better for Biden, since Trump is far more likely to lose delegations, rather than to pick any up.Let's start with the obvious state-- Michigan, There are 14 congressional seats. The Democrats hold 7 and although Rogers and Wirth may think the GOP controls 7, they don't, at least not any longer. The third district elected Republican Justin Amash as a Republican and he's still in the seat, but as a Trump-hating-- like intensely hating-- independent. He may not be a Biden fan, but he would hold his nose and vote for Biden before I would. If he had to decide, Michigan would not be a 7-7 tie, but an 8-6 pro-Biden vote.The more interesting premise is the post-election delegations. There is no doubt that the Democrats will control Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Virginia, Vermont and Washington (21 delegations).There can also be no doubt that the Republicans will control Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, probably Texas-- we'll get to that anon-- Utah, Wisconsin, West Virginia and Wyoming (22 delegations).What could change? Well, what happens if there is a tie? There are 3 possibilities for ties right off the bat. Pennsylvania Democrats manager to lose PA-01, even though Hillary beat Trump there by 2 points. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) has a weak opponent in moderate Democrat Christina Finello who hasn't raised much money ($217,537 to Fitzpatrick's $2,355,082) and generates little enthusiasm. That enthusiasm could become tsunami-like if a second Trump term is dependent on it. PA-10 would be an even harder district to win and Eugene DePasquale, the Democratic nominee is an even less attractive candidate than Finello, a reactionary Blue Dog who would easily be one of the worst Dems in the House. But... once again-- reluctant Democratic voters who would never consider voting for a Blue Dog pile of garbage might think twice because of the stakes. Still, unlike PA-01 (Bucks County), it's a Republican district so I wouldn't bet on this one.Then there's the Michigan situation. Amash isn't running and the Democrats have a crap centrist in Hillary Scholten who will inspire no one at all. BUT... the Democrats have a great candidate, state Rep Jon Hoadley, running against a fairly weak Republican in MI-06, a purple district that seems ready to give up on Fred Upton. Hoadley is likely to flip the delegation blue. You can contribute to his campaign here.Right now, Nebraska has 1 Democrat and 2 Republicans but one of the Republicans, Don Bacon, is likely to lose to Kara Eastman (NE-02), which would create a are reality on the ground, taking the state away from Trump in the House. You can contribute to Eastman here.Then there are 2 states with one member each-- Alaska and Montana-- that could be, with great difficulty, flipped. Alyse Galvin, an Alaska independent running with Democratic support, probably has the better chance. She's outraising GOP incumbent Don Young $1,313,209 to $1,008,895 and brought in 46.5% of the vote in 2018 as a Democrat.That leaves the two biggest jewels in the Republican electoral crown: Florida and Texas. Both are steep uphill climbs and neither is finished even picking candidates yet. Let's take Florida first, which has 27 members, 13 Democrats and 14 Republicans. There are no obvious seats a Democrat could flip but that doesn't mean there is no hope. There are x seats worth talking about: FL-03, where Ted Yoho is retiring and where progressive Adam Christensen is running a smart grassroots campaign (contribute here), FL-15, where Alan Cohn could possibly beat ethics-challenged freshman Ross Spano, FL-16, where Margaret Good once beat Vern Buchanan's son in a state legislative district and is now attempting to beat the father, and FL-19, where Francis Rooney is retiring and where Cindy Banyai has a very outside chance to flip the seat (contribute here). This morning Adam Christensen told me that "The tide is shifting quickly as a wave of progressive, grassroots organizing is shining a spotlight on the potential in North Central Florida. Everyone is starting to understand that this is the best place in the state to get the votes needed to knock out Trump and Republican control. Come November, we are going to accomplish something that no one thought possible 6 months ago."And Texas. There are 36 congressional districts; Republicans control 23 and Democrats have 13. Democrats would have to win 5 to tie it up (depriving Trump of the state). That looks next to impossible. But not impossible. With Will Hurd retiring, TX-23 is almost a sure flip. In the 22nd district Republican Pete Olson is also retiring but the Democrat, Sri Kulkarni is likely to be up against self-funder Kathaleen Wall, who has already spent around $7,000,000 of her own just to win the primary! But another retiree, Kenny Marchant, is leaving TX-24 behind, where Candace Valenzuela could probably take the seat if she can beat centrist nothing Dem Kim Olson. There are also 3 flippable seats with GOP incumbents-- TX-10, TX-21 and TX-25-- where, Mike Siegel would probably beat Michael McCaul, Wendy Davis has a shot against Chip Roy and where Julie Oliver has a solid shot against Roger Williams. (You can contribute to Siegel and Oliver on this page.) There are vague chances that incumbents John Carter (TX-31), Dan Crenshaw (TX-02), Van Taylor (TX-03) and Ron Wright (TX-06) could be displaced but none of the recruitment was stellar and I wouldn't want to stake another 4 years of Trump on these seats.So, several pathways to come to a House delegation majority, probably the best being wins for Kara Eastman in Nebraska, Jon Hoadley in Michigan, Christina Finello in Pennsylvania, Alan Cohn and/or Adam Christensen in Florida and Alyse Galvin in Alaska.
