Conservative Democrats who cannot winProgressive Democrats who can winRecent polls-- like this morning's release of the latest NBC News/Marist poll in Kentucky-- confirm what astute observers have been saying for some time: the DSCC braintrust-- Harry Reid, Michael Bennet and Guy Cecil-- are wasting their money on conservative candidates in deep red states. The DSCC has helped Alison Lundergan Grimes raise $11,353,760 and they and their Senate Majority Pac have spent close to another $4 million on TV ads in Kentucky already. Similarly, in Georgia, the DSCC has helped Michelle Nunn raise $9,211,931 while they and EMILY's List have spent over a million dollars on outside ads so far.The most recent SurveyUSA polls shows Republican David Perdue beating Michelle Nunn 50-41%. Today's Marist poll has McConnell absolutely trouncing Grimes, 47-39%. OK, maybe Nunn and Grimes, both conservative Democrats eagerly wrecking the Democratic brand in their state to promote their own doomed candidacies, will lose less badly with DSCC support. So?If the DSCC and its allies were funneling that kind of money and support into two winnable states they are ignoring-- Maine, where an outstanding progressive, Shenna Bellows, is taking on tired conservative hack Susan Collins, and South Dakota, where a plucky populist is hammering conservative corporate whore Mike Rounds-- the Democrats would have a far better chance to hold onto the Senate… and keep the majority without putting it's effectiveness into the hands of two idiots who will spend the next six years worrying about if they are voting conservatively enough for their reelection challenge.Shenna Bellows, with no help from the DSCC or from EMILY's List beyond lip service, has raised $1,330,516 to Collins' $5,380,803 (45% of it-- $2,404,553-- legalistic bribes from PACs with agendas antithetical to the voters of Maine. The DSCC and its allies have spent exactly zero dollars in Maine this cycle. How could they when they're dumping so much down the toilets in Kentucky and Georgia? On her own-- and without a single Democratic senator with the guys to go up against Collins (and that, alas, includes Grimes-booster Liz Warren)-- Bellows is closing the gap between herself an Collins. She's now in a position where some help from the DSCC could help her do to Collins what Democrat Bill Hathaway did ("impossibly") against Margaret Chase Smith in 1972. Today's Portland Press Herald featured a debate between former Republican state Senator Phil Harriman and former Democratic state Senator Ethan Strimling on how the contours of the race are shaping up:
Phil: Now I understand why Mary thinks you need help. How about the U.S. Senate race? Is Shenna Bellows gonna be able to break 30 percent against Susan Collins?Ethan: For sure. She has positioned herself well for the final stretch. The “walk across Maine” solidified her standing among Democrats and introduced her to many people who wouldn’t know her otherwise.Phil: And many people smiled politely, shook her hand, and will then go into the voting booth to vote for Susan Collins. Collins’ level of popularity is verging on iconic (rightfully so) and will put her on the same plane as Margaret Chase Smith and George Mitchell.Ethan: I am just saying that Shenna is turning out to be a much stronger candidate than many expected. She has money in the bank. She is very likable on camera. And she is working her butt off. She is turning out to be the Little Engine That Could.
Similarly, Rick Weiland's grassroots campaign in South Dakota-- for an open blue seat-- is getting no help (what would be the opposite of "help?") from the DSCC. Weiland has raised $1,094,098 (to Mike Rounds' $3,716,986). The DSCC has stubbornly refused to spend a dime in South Dakota, even though the most recent polls show him consistently gaining on Rounds.
Public Policy Polling’s newest South Dakota survey finds that Rick Weiland is continuing to cut into Mike Rounds’ once double digit lead in the race to replace Tim Johnson.Key findings from the survey include:• Rounds’ lead now stands at just 6 points- he’s at 39% to 33% for Weiland, 17% for Larry Pressler, and 4% for Gordon Howie. Rounds’ lead has dropped from 10 points in April to 8 points in early August to now just 6 points in late August as Weiland has become better known and more popular.• Weiland is considerably more well liked by voters than Rounds. 48% see him favorably to only 27% with an unfavorable opinion. That +21 net favorability rating for Weiland is up from +15 earlier in the month, and it’s 24 points better than Rounds’-- only 44% of voters see him positively to 47% who have a negative opinion.• There are several reasons to think the race could close further. Among voters who are familiar with Weiland, whether they have a positive or negative opinion of him, he leads Rounds 42/36. Rounds is ahead in large part thanks to greater name recognition, but as Weiland has become better known, Rounds’ lead has gotten smaller and smaller.Additionally Pressler supporters say that if they had to pick, they’d choose Weiland over Rounds 48/29. Third party candidates tend to see their support fade as an election gets closer. If Pressler sees a decline in his support over the next two months, Weiland is likely to be the beneficiary-- he trails Rounds only 45/42 when you take Pressler out of the mix.Rick Weiland has the momentum in this race. The more voters get to know him, the more they like him, and it’s making what was once a wide lead for Mike Rounds less and less comfortable.
If you've been waiting, now's the time to put your money to work for the two progressive Democrats who can save the Senate despite the jaw-dropping incompetence of Michael Bennet and Guy Cecil. Please give what you can to Rick and Shenna here.