Rand Paul isn't the only publicity hog in the Senate. He's just the worst. Every time something controversial comes up, he grabs some quick national headlines by pretending he might do something contrary to what everyone knows he will do (and always does do). So, no, there is exactly no chance-- none whatsoever-- that Rand Paul is wavering on voting to confirm extremist Trump nominee Brett Kavanaugh. It's always a nice fantasy that Paul will break away from his rote support for this kind of thing but it's nothing more than a publicity stunt for Paul. And, of course, he got the ink he was looking for from Politico yesterday.If just one Republican votes NO, the nominee Trump picked because he says he believes presidents are above the law and can't he questioned or indicted, Kavanaugh's rushed nomination fails. Reporter Burgess Everett wrote that "Paul is again inviting fellow senators to play the will-he-or-won’t-he guessing game when it comes to his decision-- expressing grave concerns about Kavanaugh’s approach to personal privacy while insisting his vote could go either way, depending on what the judge says in the coming weeks and months." What a joke! There is no one in Washington playing any kind of will-he-or-won’t-he guessing game over puffed up Rand Paul. If he was an actual civil libertarian, say, Justin Amash-- the real deal-- maybe people would... but Rand Paul? Give me a break. This scam only works so many times before you become a sad joke.
“I am honestly undecided. I am very concerned about his position on privacy and the Fourth Amendment. This is not a small deal for me. This is a big deal,” Paul said in an interview last week. “Kavanaugh’s position is basically that national security trumps privacy. And he said it very strongly and explicitly. And that worries me.”The calculation, of course, isn’t that straightforward. GOP senators and strategists are skeptical that Paul would be willing to buck President Donald Trump, with whom he’s close, on such a monumental vote. For senators, it doesn’t get much bigger than a vote to confirm or reject a Supreme Court justice in waiting.With Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) absent from the Senate, Paul could tank Kavanaugh if he joins with all Democrats in opposing him. And Paul has been more publicly critical of Kavanaugh than moderate Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, two other pivotal GOP votes.Brett Kavanaugh by Nancy OhanianPaul must also reckon with the possibility that if Kavanaugh’s nomination fails, Republicans could lose the Senate this fall and with it the ability to confirm Trump’s nominees unilaterally.Yet the civil libertarian community is bashing Kavanaugh. And Paul is still the de facto leader of that wing of his party given his views on privacy, torture and non-interventionism.The GOP senator has not come out as strongly against Kavanaugh as he did against Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for whom he eventually voted, and CIA Director Gina Haspel, who he followed through in opposing. Other like-minded Republicans have been more adamant.“There are many potential nominees with a conservative record on abortion, guns, and regulations,” Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI), the most outspoken of them, wrote on Twitter. “The only question is will the Senate confirm one who is really bad on the #4thAmendment, when so much is at stake in upcoming digital privacy battles.”Paul understands this is not a black-and-white call, and that political considerations will come into play. He has pointedly left himself some wiggle room to be convinced that the nominee understands where he’s coming from.“Wouldn’t you rather have Kavanaugh than Ruth Bader Ginsburg? He’s probably good on economic liberty and overzealous regulation and things like that. So I don’t want to have it sort of in a vacuum,” Paul said. “I’ll have to weigh that versus other aspects that he may be a lot better than a Clinton appointee.”A handful of red-state Democrats might end up backing Kavanaugh and take pressure off of Paul as potentially the deciding vote. But those Democrats are expected to withhold their opinions until all Republican senators have stated their intentions. That means Paul could be headed for a familiar routine during his tenure: fellow Republicans pleading with him to be a team player and resist his impulses to go his own way. Many GOP senators have already come out in support of Kavanaugh before he’s even had his hearing, and some are beginning to gently prod Paul.
