Totally In Control by Nancy Ohanian Hillary didn't seriously contest Ohio. That campaign mindset is how our country was hurled into the pit of fiery hell we've been in for nearly 4 years. Her husband won Ohio both times he ran and so did Obama-- 51.50% to 46.91% against McCain in 2008 and 50.67% to 47.69% against Romney in 2012. Trump didn't do as well as Obama's 2008 run but Hillary (43.24%) did a lot worse in the Buckeye State than than Romney, McCain, Kerry or Gore. (Establishment Democrats still don't want to acknowledge she was the worst possible candidate they could have nominated. They haven't learned-- and incapable of learning-- from their mistakes. They Democratic Party is so lucky that Biden's opponent is Donald.) Anyway, early on in this cycle, the Party Establishment literally tried writing off Ohio again. I.AM.NOT.KIDDING. The Ohio polling averages show Biden up over a point and it's just a point because the averages including the absurd Trafalgar polling-- which is nothing but a GOP propaganda machine that has nothing whatsoever to do with legitimate polling. The the Fox News poll from late September. Among likely voters, Trump is losing 45% to 50%. Republicans don't win the presidency without two states: Ohio and Florida. Trump is losing both. And he just stopped advertising in Ohio, cancelling planned TV ads. According to a report from CNN, Trump has spent almost $15 million to date in Ohio, a lot less than in the 3 states he's spent the most in: $77 million in Florida, $36 million in North Carolina and $29 million in Pennsylvania. Biden, meanwhile, has spent a little more than $7 million in Ohio, compared to $95 million in Florida, $55 million in Pennsylvania and $43 million in North Carolina. Biden, though, just opened the floodgates in Ohio, expanding his ad buys-- as early voting began yesterday-- into every corner of the state.
The new spots will air on radio in rural, traditionally Republican areas of the state, the campaign told The Associated Press, as well as on TV in Dayton. That adds to television advertising already announced in Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati and on Black radio stations. ...Part of the more-competitive-than-expected Ohio landscape is owed to Trump’s decline in support across the state’s suburbs, surrounding its largest cities Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland but also its midsize and smaller metros, such as Akron, Dayton and Toledo. Some Republicans have argued that Trump can win by turning out more supporters in the rural and small-town regions that carried him in 2016. However, some Republicans say Trump likely cannot recoup his suburban losses given how he set 40-year Republican vote percentage records, or near-records, in two-thirds of Ohio’s 88 counties four years ago. ...The Biden ads will reach 56 of Ohio’s 88 counties-- as well as four counties in neighboring West Virginia-- with the positively toned spots, the campaign said. They’ll air across southeast Ohio’s Appalachian region, western Ohio’s farm fields and in blue-collar Mahoning County, home to Youngstown, a formerly loyal Democratic area that Trump swung into the Republican column in 2016.
With the only state Democratic Party on a level of incompetence even close to Florida's, Ohio has no noteworthy down ballot races this cycle. They have a conservative Dem running in Cincinnati who could be swept into office in an anti-Trump tsunami, but that's it. What a shame! In other states, the anti-Trump tsunami is helping down-ballot races and Democratic candidates across the country are telling me they're feeling it on all levels. In Texas, for example, the Biden campaign just committed to a $6 million budget that is going to be crucial not just for his own campaign, but in helping Democrats win back the state House and flip several congressional seats, including TX-10, TX-23, TX-24 and TX-25, where Mike Siegel, Gina Ortiz Jones, Candace Valenzuela and Julie Oliver are looking like winners in their bids to replace Trump tools Michael McCaul, Will Hurd, Kenny Marchant and Roger Williams. Alaska Senate candidate Al Gross hired man old friend of mine to run his campaign, David Keith. When I asked David today how the Supreme Court nomination is playing our politically in his race, he told me that "Alaskans are pro-choice. Alaskans understand that healthcare-- and most importantly pre-existing conditions-- are on the table. Doctor Al Gross isn’t going to shy away from this fight. He’s going to lean right the hell into it. He’s going to stand up for women’s reproductive freedom like there’s no tomorrow. He’ll fight-- and beat-- anyone trying to rip healthcare away from Alaskans. We’re going to win this race on these very key issues that effect everyone." It didn't hurt yesterday that his GOP opponent, Dan Sullivan, who is supposedly quarantined in Anchorage was caught, out shopping and-- dull-minded Republican sociopath that he is-- maskless! And other more vulnerable GOP senators than John Cornyn are feeling the pressure big time. In fact, some of them are not exactly rejoicing over Trump's selection of far right extremist Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court. Safe without an election this cycle, clowns like Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are exalting in the fascism, but endangered incumbents like Thom Tillis (NC), Dan Sullivan (AK), Steve Daines (MT), Joni Ernst (IA), not to mention Susan Collins (ME) and Cory Gardner (CO) are dancing around that nomination. ABC News' Kendall Karson reported that these Republicans not outwardly gloating over the end of Roe v Wade or the Affordable Care Act, which is exactly what Coney Barrett is being hired to achieve. Karson wrote that these Republicans "are downplaying a possible conservative shift on the court in an attempt to avoid a potential backlash on Election Day." Some, like Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis and Steve Daines are just flat-out lying to their constituents:
Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, who sits on the Judiciary Committee and is currently wrestling for her seat with Democrat Theresa Greenfield, suggested Roe would not be overturned with Barrett on the court. Two thirds of Americans believe the landmark decision should remain intact, according to a June CBS News poll. "I think the likelihood of Roe v. Wade being overturned is very minimal," Ernst, who is trailing Greenfield slightly in recent polling, said at a debate last week. "I don't see that happening, truly. I don't see that happening. But what we can do is certainly educate the public on how important life is ... I'm adamantly pro-life. I will stand behind that." In North Carolina, where Republican Thom Tillis is competing in a closely-watched contest with Cal Cunningham, a former Democratic state senator and Army veteran, the first-term senator contended that it's not certain how Barrett would vote on Roe if she were confirmed. "I've heard my opponent talk about Justice Barrett will get on the bench and overturn Roe v. Wade," he said in the race's final debate Thursday night. "Nobody knows how she's going to rule on that." Tillis, one of the two GOP members of the Judiciary Committee who contracted the virus, instead raised the possibility of chipping away at existing abortion rights-- potentially slowly eroding the breadth of the landmark Roe decision. "What's likely to occur are cases that are going to go up to say, maybe we should improve standards for clinics that perform abortions," he said. "Maybe we should require doctors to have admitting privileges at a hospital nearby, in case the abortion goes bad. Maybe we should reconsider the extreme position that Cal Cunningham takes on partial birth abortion and on late-term abortions." ...[I]n reliably-red Montana, which voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016 and is known for its independence and split-ticket voters, Republican Sen. Steve Daines is fighting for his political life against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. Pressed on what will happen to the 23 million Americans insured under the Affordable Care Act if the Supreme Court, which hears the Trump administration's challenge to President Barack Obama's signature legislative accomplishment on Nov. 10, strikes it down, Daines used a similar argument as Ernst and Tillis, but this time about the ACA. Minutes after he said, "I support the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett, she's exactly the kind of justice I want to see on the Supreme Court," Daines asserted that the Supreme Court, even with the addition of Barrett, might not overturn the ACA. "I've spoken to experts who are looking at this case. This is a very big case. It's going to go before the United States Supreme Court regarding the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare," he said at a debate last week. "The experts are saying it's highly unlikely they'll overturn the ACA, that that's the consensus of many legal experts." ...At a time when protecting both abortion rights and the health care law are popular, some Republican strategists are critical of the GOP's efforts in the final stretch of the election, suggesting it's misleading. "I think it's the worst poker playing I've ever seen," said Jeff Timmer, a veteran GOP strategist and former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party, in an interview Friday. "They're bluffing... She has a clear paper trail on abortion... I mean, is Trump going to withdraw the lawsuit? It's ludicrous to say that it's not going to happen. That's the impetus for getting her confirmed ahead of time because it's politically dangerous for them to rush forward." ...Despite the moves by some members of his own party, McConnell said on Thursday he believes Barrett's nomination will be "a big asset" in "states around the country." The sudden injection of the Supreme Court into the election is not only a tightrope for endangered Republican senators, though, who will ultimately have to vote on her nomination if, and more likely when, one comes to the floor. It's also emerging as a complication for GOP challengers, too. ...After recently appearing at a Trump rally in Freeland, Michigan, John James-- the Republican running to oust Sen. Gary Peters, one of two Democrats in a competitive race this cycle-- broke ranks with the president, telling a local ABC affiliate that he does not support the administration's lawsuit that will come before the Supreme Court without a replacement health care plan enacted. "I do not believe that you should pull the rug out from under people, and I don't support this move without a plan in place," he said, without criticizing Trump. "We have to protect people with pre-existing conditions and keep our promises to our seniors. I don't think the ACA is perfect it needs improvement." James' resistance to supporting the White House's efforts to dismantle the ACA entirely, Timmer said, is indicative of Republicans knowing "this is a losing political issue." "He has the luxury of having cake and eating it too," he said. "He doesn't have to vote on Barrett...But the fact is that all this is going to happen regardless. Even if John James were to win, he doesn't have take a stand on any of this. And so he has the luxury of saying the politically safe position in the end." Democrats are leveraging the process to refocus the remaining weeks of the election as a referendum on protecting the ACA, an issue that landed them control of the House and is central to their strategy for winning back the presidency and the Senate. It's also emerged as key to their case against Barrett. "Keep the argument very simple-- McConnell and Republicans are trying to rush through a confirmation of a justice who will overturn protections for preexisting conditions," a memo circulated by House Democrats' campaign arm outlines. "If McConnell and Republicans get their way, millions of Americans will lose healthcare coverage-- in the midst of a pandemic." Healthcare is a great issue but so is Trump's real economic record. Democrats have failed to get that out effectively Late last week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer used a procedural maneuver to force a vote on blocking the Trump administration's support of the ACA lawsuit, which was mostly symbolic and put Republicans on the record about where they stand on the issue. Some of the most endangered GOP incumbents sided with Democrats, including Ernst, Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner, Maine Sen. Susan Collins, Arizona Sen. Martha McSally, and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan, in an apparent move to put distance between them and Trump's efforts to overturn the ACA. Both Tillis and Daines toed their party line and voted against the measure. Democrats are eager to highlight the GOP's tough position, as both the ACA and Roe cut against Republicans' top priorities, party strategists say. "Senate Republicans are blatantly trying to deceive voters about their own records and the intended consequences of their rush to fill this Supreme Court vacancy with a nominee hostile to the Affordable Care Act and women’s reproductive rights," said Stewart Boss, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, in a statement. "These vulnerable incumbents are racing to distance themselves from their own rigid positions because there’s an election around the corner and they know their anti-health care stances are harmful and out of touch with voters."
