It's been nearly a year since Move On, in the wake of the Republican government shut down, polled dozens of competitive congressional districts in Republican-held districts across the country asking, among other inquiries, these two questions:
1- Would you be less likely or more likely to support [your congressman] if you knew he voted to support shutting down major activities of the federal government as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place, or does it not make a difference?2- Now that you know [your congressman] supported the government shutdown, I’ll ask you one more time: If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for re-elect Republican [your congressman], or would you vote for his Democratic opponent?
The responses were nearly universal. Most respondents said they would be less likely to vote to reelect their Members of Congress if they voted to shut down the government and, when they were informed that their Member had indeed voted to shut down the government the Members re-elect numbers went down. I'll give you a few examples from random districts. Let's take a look at a dozen-- first 6 that the DCCC is involved in and then 6 where the DCCC is either refusing to help or where they have sabotaged attempts to beat the Republican:
• CA-10- Jeff Denham vs Michael Eggman- 60% opposed a shut down• C0-06- Mike Coffman vs Andrew Romanoff- 62% opposed a shut down• IL-13- Rodney Davis vs Ann Callis- 59% opposed a shut down• KY-06- Andy Barr vs Elisabeth Jensen- 59% opposed a shut down• NY-19- Chris Gibson vs Sean Eldridge- 66% opposed a shut down• VA-02- Scott Rigell vs Suzanne Patrick- 65% opposed a shut down• IA-04- Steve King vs Jim Mowrer- 57% opposed a shut down• OH-14- David Joyce vs Michael Wager- 59% opposed a shut down• WI-07- Sean Duffy vs Kelly Westlund- 59% opposed a shut down• FL-27- Ileana Rose Lehtinen (unopposed- 62% opposed a shut down• MI-06- Fred Upton vs Paul Clements- 69% opposed a shut down• WA-08- Dave Reichert vs Jason Ritchie- 68% opposed a shut down
In every case, voters opposed shutting down the government "as a way to stop the health care law from being put into place." The most adamantly against that proposition were the voters in MI-06, where the DCCC absolutely refuses to help Paul Clements beat Fred Upton, who did vote to shut down the government. Even in the reddest and most backward/primitive district of the lot, IA-04, 57% opposed shutting down the government and said that Steve King's vote to do so would make them more likely to help elect a Democrat to replace him. Again, the DCCC is refusing to help Jim Mowrer, King's Democratic opponent.In most of the cases, the Democrats have failed to close the circle and adequately make the case. In most districts they have allowed the issue to fade. Sean Eldridge, for example, one of the most inept of Israel's gaggle of third-rate mystery meat recruits, is now polling at 29% after writing himself a $1,340,000 heck and spending $962,959. Is there any way the Democrats or Steve Israel's incredibly incompetent DCCC could revive the issue? Nope-- but Mitch McConnell just did it for them. This morning, Politico published an interview with the embattled 72 year old Minority Leader and he started babbling about shutting down the government again if the Republicans can win both Houses of Congress.
Mitch McConnell has a game plan to confront President Barack Obama with a stark choice next year: Accept bills reining in the administration’s policies or risk a government shutdown.In an extensive interview here, the typically reserved McConnell laid out his clearest thinking yet of how he would lead the Senate if Republicans gain control of the chamber. The emerging strategy: Attach riders to spending bills that would limit Obama policies on everything from the environment to health care, consider using an arcane budget tactic to circumvent Democratic filibusters and force the president to “move to the center” if he wants to get any new legislation through Congress.In short, it’s a recipe for a confrontational end to the Obama presidency.“We’re going to pass spending bills, and they’re going to have a lot of restrictions on the activities of the bureaucracy,” McConnell said in an interview aboard his campaign bus traveling through Western Kentucky coal country. “That’s something he won’t like, but that will be done. I guarantee it.”
McConnell's plainly stated intent to provoke confrontation and the kind of shutdown and dysfunction that is only popular on the far right fringe Ted Cruz inhabits. After Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Steve Israel made sure there would be no Democratic opponent to Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in FL-27-- a district Obama won 53-47% against Romney-- no amount of crackpot right-wing extremism is going to win this one back, but McConnell's threats and bluster against the American people today should be able too help every Democrat running for the Senate and every Democrat running for the House. Elisabeth Jensen, who represents the Democrats best chance at winning a House seat in Kentucky, was quick to recognize how angry moderate voters in her central Kentucky district would be. This isn't what voters in Lexington and Frankfort are looking for from their political leaders. Earlier today she told us that “Mitch McConnell, Andy Barr and the Republicans shut the government down one year ago, and in reality with their games in Washington it is still shut down. Now McConnell is making it clear he and Andy Barr will continue to grind Washington to a halt if we send them back to Washington again in this election. Everywhere I go in Central Kentucky people tell me this broken dysfunctional government is making them very angry and costing us good jobs and opportunity to move forward. This is a problem we can only solve with new leadership."Paul Clements was speaking for all the Blue America candidates this morning when he drew a shape contrast between himself and Fred Upton, the knee-jerk Republican congressman from southwest Michigan who knew he shouldn't but backed the government shutdown anyway. Upton may be sorry now because his is the district with the highest percentage of voters that say they are more likely to vote against a congressman who voted for the shutdown. This morning, Clements told us that "Everyone knows the federal government isn't working. We need officials from both parties to focus on solving the problems America faces. Voting to shut down the government, as Congressman Upton did last year and as Senator McConnell is threatening to do again, is the height of political irresponsibility. Let's get representatives who will not act like children."Is Steve Israel paying any attention-- to anything beyond lining his own pockets and promoting his own miserable career? That was a rhetorical question. Everyone but Nancy Pelosi knows the answer to that.
