When computers mimic the human mind by showing an ability to "learn" and then use that learning to solve problems... that's AI-- Artificial Intelligence. Today it goes beyond human speech recognition, military war-game simulations and autonomously operating cars and tracks to... predicting who's going to win the Iowa caucuses tomorrow. You don't need AI for that you say? You can check the Real Clear Politics polling average (which shows Bernie ahead with 23.8%, compared to Status Quo Joe's 20.2%, Mayo Pete's 15.8% and everyone else below the 15% needed to win any delegates). Or you can check the latest trustworthy polls, like Emerson's (which shows Bernie with 30%, Biden with 21% and no one else over 15%) or the Civiqs poll with Iowa State University (which shows Bernie leading with 24%, followed by Elizabeth with 19%, Mayo with 17% and Status Quo Joe hanging on with his fingernails at 15%).Or go ask Polly. Polly? Polly is an AI tool powered by Advanced Symbolics Inc., itself an artificial intelligence-driven market research company. Polly, the first AI in the world able to predict human behavior up to the minute-- everything from buying decisions to voting intentions-- is predicting a win for Bernie tomorrow. "She uses publicly available online information," explains ASI, "to create representative samples of any population or target audience. Without asking any direct questions, Polly tracks and interprets how people in the sample feel toward a topic along with their intentions.
When looking at the forecast numbers, the story isn’t between Sanders and Biden (although polls have shown them neck-to-neck for the past few days), but with the shift in momentum for Warren. Polly sees Warren cracking 15% of the vote, which is significantly higher than the 13-14 percent polls have been showing. These votes come at the expense of Biden, who will drop to 20% for the first time since the Democratic Debate on January 15. Heading into New Hampshire, this will appear momentum shifting from Biden to Warren.Young voters will be responsible for Sanders’s win in Iowa. 24% of voters under 25 are supportive of Sanders. Biden strongly resonates with older voters, especially 65 and over. Polly is seeing that younger voters will turn out at higher than historic levels, swinging the election to Sanders, countering the strong voter turnout among retirees.Looking beyond the two front runners, Polly sees Buttigieg holding steady in 3rd place with 17% of the vote, followed by Warren with 15%, and then Klobuchar with 8% of the vote. The race between Warren and Klobuchar, the two leading female candidates, is interesting. Women are more likely to support Klobuchar then men (9% of women voting for Klobuchar compared to 7% of men), while Warren has more endeared herself to the male constituent (16% of men will vote for Warren, compared to 14% of women). This is consistent with Warren’s debate showing, where she held her ground as a strong female candidate while not offending men.
This is what Polly predicts for tomorrow among all people who attend the Democratic caucuses:
• Bernie- 21.47%• Status Quo Joe- 19.98%• Mayo- 16.82%• Elizabeth- 15.44%• Klobuchar- 8.36%• Yang- 3.24%• Steyer- 3.09%• Tulsi- 1.88%• Bloomberg- 0.58%
I would also note that among caucus attendees with no party (independents), Bernie's lead goes way up (although he also leads among Democrats alone 20% to 18% over Biden). The Bernie landslide among independents is something Democrats concerned about electability should be paying close attention to, since independents decide election is states Trump won that Bernie is targeting for November, namely Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, Florida and Alaska, as well as electoral college voting congressional districts NE-02 and ME-02. It should be worrying to see how badly Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar and Status Quo Joe perform among independent voters. This is each candidate's projected performance among only independent Iowa voters likely to participate in the Democratic caucuses tomorrow:
• Bernie- 34% (+13)• Status Quo Joe- 14% (-6)• Klobuchar- 10% (-2)• Elizabeth- 5% (-10)• Mayo- 9% (-8)• Yang- 7% (+4)• Steyer- 3% (same)• Tulsi- 5% (+3)• Bloomberg- 3% (+2)
I also want to mention one more metric Polly measured-- support for each candidate by gender. Bernie wins among males, beating Biden 26 to 14% and wins among females, beating Biden 21 to 20%. So who is against Bernie-- these corporations funding the Republican wing of the Democratic Party's (Third Way) vicious attacks against him with over a million dollars worth of TV advertising smears in Iowa:Good target for progressives: CVSSpeaking of which, there are Democratic Party sore losers... like Hillary Clinton, once a Republican Party operative in Illinois who then moved to Massachusetts where she rose in the GOP ranks and spent her teens and twenties as a hard-core Republican. And she's still that kind of person. What kind of person? Have you ever met a Republican? I have. And I've met Hillary Clinton-- several times-- and she's the same kind of creep, which is why I just could not bring myself to vote for her in 2016. And why her repugnant attacks on Bernie come as no surprise to me whatsoever. (And, yes, that said, she was still a better candidate than Joe Biden!)Get involved-- no matter where you live, no matter who you are. Let's not stick ourselves with another lesser of two evils candidate the DNC thrusts on us as "inevitable," the way they did in 2016. There's a great candidate running, great in the way Franklin Roosevelt was great. I hope I see another great president-- the first in my lifetime-- and I hope this guy does too. Don't feel sad... feel inspired.
