by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Urbanization effects on changes in the observed air temperatures during 1977–2014 in China [link]
The war over supercooled water [link]
Lovejoy: Spectra, intermittency, and extremes of weather, macro weather and climate. [link]
“The record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the maximum possible number for the present climate,”[link]
Ocean circulation reduces the Hadley cell response to increased greenhouse gases [link]
The Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial millennial scale variability [link]
Surprisingly large impacts from a new equation of state for seawater [link] …
‘The Paradox of Irrigation Efficiency’ [link]
Estimating changes in temperature distributions in a large ensemble of climate simulations using quantile regression https://buff.ly/2LpgL3o
Assessment of aerosol–cloud–radiation correlations in satellite observations, climate models and reanalysis (open access) [link]
Climate response to the meltwater runoff from Greenland ice sheet: evolving sensitivity to discharging locations [link]
New article by moi: How to predict Atlantic hurricanes [link]
Potential influence of the Atlantic Multi‐decadal Oscillation in modulating the biennial relationship between Indian and Australian summer monsoons [link]
A new reconstruction (ice cores & tree rings) shows Arctic sea ice extent in the Barents-Kara Seas region may be the lowest in nearly 1000 years (but barely lower than the 1930’s) [link] + Paper: [link] …
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation”. [link]
Contiguous US summer maximum temperature and heat stress trends in CRU and NOAA data plus comparisons to reanalyses [link]
Review article: #ENSO: its complexity and influence.[link]
Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes [link]
Reducing uncertainties in climate models – problems with radiative transfer codes [link]
“Biased Estimates of Changes in Climate Extremes From Prescribed SST Simulations” [link]
Roles of SST versus internal atmospheric variability in winter extreme precipitation variability along the U.S. West Coast [link]
Attribution ‘science’ [link]
Drop in land use emissions boosted the land carbon sink over 1998-2012. And the fall in emissions was down to “both decreased tropical forest area loss and increased afforestation in northern temperate regions” [link] …
Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity [link]
New paper shows coral bleaching in Great Barrier Reef extending back 400+ years [link]
Aerosols emitted in different regions have very different climate effects. [link]
“Hail damage is expected to increase in coming years, largely driven by population growth and suburban sprawl.” [link]
Sea ice decline slows. No major record breakers this year. [link]
Climate impacts from a removal of anthropogenic aerosol emissions [link]
An updated Solar Cycle 25 prediction: The Modern Minimum [link]
Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming [link]
Florida’s red tide blooms [link]
New insights into solar and volcanic forcing of North Atlantic Climate [link]
An ocean-sea ice model study of the unprecedented Antarctic sea ice minimum in 2016 [link]
Why BECCS might not produce ‘negative’ emissions after all [link]
Changes in Extreme Rainfall Over India and China Attributed to Regional Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction During the Late 20th Century Rapid Industrialization [link]
Global ocean heat content redistribution during the 1998–2012 Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation negative phase [link]
Drought and vegetation change in the central Rocky Mountains and western Great Plains: potential climatic mechanisms associated with megadrought conditions at 4200 cal yr BP [link] …
West Antarctic ice sheet ‘more sensitive’ to natural variability than thought [link]
In winter water nearest the sea ice surrounding Antarctica releases significantly more carbon dioxide than previously believed [link]
What makes wildfires so complex and hard to predict. It’s climate/weather, it’s vegetation patterns, it’s human land use and development, it’s fire management practices [link]
Humans cause fires in California spread by Santa Ana winds based on 25 years of data. Why? No lightning[link]
Why SST trend in North Pacific is peculiarly negative against warming trend elsewhere since 1958 [link]
Assessing the robustness of Antarctic temperature reconstructions over the past two millennia using pseudoproxy and data assimilation experiments https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2018-90 …
Warm-Arctic/cold Siberia pattern [link] …
Scientists trace atmospheric rise in CO2 during deglaciation to deep Pacific Ocean [link]
Unexpected: tree cover has *increased* globally by 2.2M km2 (+7% since 1982) mainly due tof human activity. But complex picture: tropical deforestation & agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation [link]
Dinosaur killing asteroid impact made huge dead zones in oceans [link]
What’s starting all these wildfires? We are [link]
Over the last 40 years, there is a surprising trend with wildfires. [link]
Potential roles of CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land use and land cover change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the twenty-first century [link]
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic [link]
Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden–Julian oscillation and quasi-biennial oscillation [link]
Study in Nature shows solar geoengineering doesn’t reduce damage to crops by climate change. Like how it doesn’t stop ocean acidification but here is the result of cancellation between positive temperature effect and negative insolation effect [link]
Capturing complexity: Forests, decision-making and climate change mitigation action [link]
Contribution of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific since 1998 [link]
Polar climate change as manifest in changes in atmospheric circulation [link]
Volcanic impact on the climate – the stratospheric aerosol load in the period 2006–2015 [link]
Are #heatwaves like the current one becoming more frequent with #climatechange due to increased atmospheric blocking? [link]
Cross-equatorial winds control El Niño diversity and change [link]
A global synthesis inversion analysis of recent variability in CO2 fluxes using GOSAT and in situ observations [link]
North Atlantic jet stream variability in late winter exceeds that found in any GCM — and is likely driven by sea surface temperature variability in the Atlantic. [link] …
How indirect carbon cycle effects dominate when comparing 1.5°C & 2°C scenarios: 1.5°C scenarios have a smaller carbon-climate feedback, 2°C scenarios have more CO₂ fertilisation, 1.5°C requires more LUC for BECC [link]
Variation of extreme drought and flood in North China revealed by document-based seasonal precipitation reconstruction for the past 300 years [link]
Reverse weathering as long-term stabilizer of marine pH and planetary climate [link]
The underestimated cooling effect on the planet from historic fires; [link]
The area burned by wildfires in the west US has more than doubled since 1980s. There is a clear link between hotter, dryer conditions and larger fires. At Carbon Brief we examine this relationship and factcheck misleading claims of declining areas burned: [link]
New paper concluding that Arctic climate is relatively sensitive to changes in air-sea heat fluxes in the Pacific ocean [link] …
How fast is the marine ice sheet instability, really? How do glaciers “see” the noisy climate? [link] …
Late Holocene forest contraction and fragmentation in central Africa [link]
Prolonged seasonal drought events over northern China and their possible causes [link]
Littell et al. ‘Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: an ecological approach to non‐stationarity’ [link] …
Absolutely fascinating read. The Scientist Who Scrambled Darwin’s Tree of Life [link]
Scientists stunned by a Neanderthal hybrid discovered in Siberian cave [link]
Policy & social sciences
The influence of political ideology and socioeconomic vulnerability on perceived health risks of heat waves in the context of climate change [link]
Common sense farming [link]
An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC Reports on climate change. [link]
Understanding how China is championing climate change mitigation [link]
Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe [link]
Being skilled in policy analysis is woefully inadequate to bring about policy change in the real world. [link]
“New Strategies for Wicked Problems Science and Solutions in the 21st Century” [link] …
About science and scientists
The rise of the promotional intellectual [link]
“There is a strong possibility that conservatives are not opposed to, or skeptical of, science per se. Rather, they lack trust in impact scientists whom they see as seeking in influence policy in a liberal direction” [link]
The nastiest feud in science – the fifth great extinction [link]
The ideological Turing Test: understand your opponents’ ideas so well that you can’t tell the difference between what you are saying and what they believe: [link]
Anti-vaccine scientists have taken vaccine science hostage [link]