by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
NASA: Megadrought Lasting Decades Is 99% Certain in American Southwest [link]
@chriscmooney pretty much (omission of track changes) nails it here on hurricanes & global warming [link]
Does #HurricaneMatthew’s Category 4+ rating really communicate its #hazard? [link]
“Exhaling Earth: Scientists closer to forecasting volcanic eruptions” [link] …
Why 2015 Was a Big Hurricane Year for the Eastern North Pacific [link]
Feds say agriculture the main culprit for methane spike [link]
This is fascinating by Roger Penrose: Fashion, Faith, and Fantasy in the New Physics of the Universe [link]
From Andy Revkin: A list of papers using the CESM (in response to Kip Hansen’s recent essay) [link]
Clouds: the huge wildcard of #climatechange forecasts. [link]
Policy sciences and decision making
Confronting deep and persistent climate uncertainty [link]
New paper comparing adaptation pathways and robust decision making [link]
Geoengineering, moral hazard, and trust in climate science: evidence from a survey experiment in Britain [link]
Read this Classic on ‘The Science of Muddling Through’ or why real decisions rarely rely on theory [link]
James Hansen: Time to go CO2 Negative! [link] …
“What do people think when they think about solar geoengineering?” [link] …
A scientific assessment of Arctic freshwater by 41 scientists from 10 countries. [link]
Pew: Most Americans Don’t Believe in ‘Scientific Consensus’ on Climate Change [link]…
Climate change and the social sciences [link] …
Confused About Uncertainty, Probability and Decisions? New Paper on Management of Natural Hazards [link]
About science
Intellectual Heterogeneity as the Engine that Drives Academic Progress [link]
Overpowered metrics eat underspecified goals [link]
The Parallel Universes of a Woman in Science [link] …
This is a really interesting paper on the kind of smearing that we see from certain members of the climate science community [link]
A new front in the statistics wars? Peaceful negotiation in the face of so-called ‘methodological terrorism’ [link]
Ratio Bias and Policy Preferences [link] …Filed under: Week in review