Let's remember on November 4 that as late as mid-October, DC prognosticators were still predicting, on average, that the GOP would lose about 7 seats in the House. Yesterday, the Politico crew called the likely thinning of GOP ranks an undertold story and wondered who would take the fall among the GOP House leaders, without mentioning Kevin McCarthy's attached at the hip relationship with Señor Trumpanzee, who's clearly dragging the GOP House conference down the drain with him. Their "election guru," Steve Shepard, moving Anne Wagner (MO-02), Jim Hagedorn (MN-01) and Steve Chabot (OH-01) into the danger zone, wrote that "signs of a possible Democratic wave abound." He also rated the House as "likely Dem." Not even "very, very" likely. What is this "election guru" waiting for, Nov. 4th? I don't know him and he may be a lovely person, but... give me a break! "there’s a good chance they [the House Democrats] could grow the majority they won in 2018: If they split the 32 'toss-up' races evenly with the GOP, Democrats would have 236 seats, one more than they did at the start of this Congress. What a moronic thing to say. "If they split the 32 'toss-up' races evenly." Why should that be a consideration? Waves aren't about splitting toss up districts evenly. There's a better chance that the Democrats will win all of them and more than split them evenly.
Trump’s failure to broaden his base and win back suburban voters is a particular weakness for House Republicans. Two of the three districts moving from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic” are in once-Republican suburban strongholds currently held by Democratic freshmen: Reps. Lizzie Fletcher in the Houston suburbs and Tom Malinowski in Northern New Jersey. Similarly, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner’s suburban St. Louis district is moving from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” as is Rep. Steve Chabot’s suburban Cincinnati seat. Those aren’t the only places where Trump is dragging down House Republicans. Freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden holds a rural Maine district that embraced Trump in 2016, but polls there show Golden well ahead of Republican Dale Crafts. His race moves from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.” Meanwhile, freshman GOP Rep. Jim Hagedorn, who holds a Trump-friendly, rural, Southern Minnesota seat that flipped to Republicans in the 2018 midterms, sees his seat move from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up”-- in part due to Hagedorn’s ethics woes. Though most of the movement is in the other direction, two longtime Democratic congressmen find themselves in tougher-than-expected races, though both are still favored to win: Reps. Peter DeFazio of Oregon and Ron Kind of Wisconsin. Both were reelected easily in 2018, but Republicans recruited strong candidates for both seats-- borrowing a page from Democrats, the GOP candidates are both military veterans-- and the races move from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” Trump carried Kind’s seat while winning Wisconsin in 2016, and he ran essentially neck-and-neck in DeFazio’s district.
What the election guru doesn't want to say is that this election is a referendum on Trump and his enablers and voters are pissed off and ready to say so at the polls. It's a tragedy that the DCCC leadership doesn't seem to understand that either and is still playing their old games-- like progressives can't win in red districts. This is the cycle they can and will. Please take a look at the Blue America 2020 congressional endorsement page by clicking on the ActBlue thermometer on the right. If you're in a giving mood, please give special consideration to candidates the DCCC is still ignoring in winnable races-- like Nate McMurray in NY-27 (who was edged out in 2018 (again, no help from the DCCC) 140,146 (49.1%) to 139,059 (48.8%). It would seem like a no-brainer for the DCCC to help Nate this cycle. But... too progressive for the district. The DCCC would rather pour millions of dollars into Blue Dogs' campaigns who are too conservative for Democrats to stand voting for even if they lose half of those races. Other races with momentum that Cheri Bustos and her Blue Dog DCCC are ignoring include Adam Christensen (FL-03), Audrey Denney (CA-01), Liam O'Mara (CA-42) and J.D. Scholten (IA-04). Let's give those races a little extra attention on the contribution page. "I have to be honest," Audrey Denney told me this morning. "If you look at my race on paper-- it doesn’t look winnable. Which is why I haven’t gotten much national attention. But when people look closer-- they know this is a swing district. Congressman LaMalfa is a lazy fundraiser-- especially compared to the big numbers I’m putting up. We are polling within the margin of error. My district is the cheapest media market in the state. For $1million you can buy 37,000 gross rating points. If you dropped that amount in CA-25-- you’d get 1,000 points. With the turnout models we are expecting this year-- I can win this seat. People are starting to notice that. I’m seeing small dollar donations coming in from around the nation. National organizations like EMILY’s list are getting on board. But I still need more help to get over the finish line. As of right this minute I still need to raise $439,964 to fully fund my paid communications and field plan. My average contribution size is $47. Every little bit helps!" J.D. Scholten, like Audrey, ran last cycle and nearly won-- with no DCCC help then and none now. His IA-04 campaign is pure grassroots. "In the past two months alone," he told me, "I've driven 7,786 miles in our Winnebago RV, Sioux City Sue, to all 374 towns in Iowa's 4th district. You can feel the economic pain in our small towns and see the shuttered downtowns that haven't even bounced back from the 2008 financial crisis. These folks have been left behind by the Democratic Party and by the corporations that are sucking the wealth and potential out of our communities-- that's why we turn down corporate PAC money and help from the DCCC. We're doing this our way to bring hope and change to Iowa's 4th district, revitalize our rural communities, and level the playing field for working people." These are the seats Cook claims are up for grabs. As usual, they are too conservative, generally giving the GOP every possible benefit of the doubt, including calling utterly safe Democratic seats "likely" or "leaning" and calling seats likely to flip to the Democrats "toss-ups," "lean R" and, in the case of TX-25 (Julie Oliver vs Roger Williams) even "likely R."
