Wrong Rice? Close enoughIf an American civilization survives the next decade, perhaps it will infer numerological significance from the fact that each of the tipping points, which is discussed below, probably became inevitable on or around February 20, 2020, which was the 20th day of the 2nd month of the 20th year of the 20-numbered century, i.e., my birthday.I. The “Climate-ularity” tipping point hardly needs belaboring, beyond reminding readers that pandemics like this month’s are likely to become more numerous-- even in the unlikely event that global temperatures can be re-stabilized only slightly higher than those of recent millennia.
II. The “Pence-ularity” tipping point will be the day when Vice President Pence, recently assigned to communicate daily on pandemic response with heads of all executive departments, realizes that:
• a clear majority of the heads of those departments, and Mr. Pence, all simultaneously understand and discuss the fact that • the feedback loops, between collapses of public health, financial markets, medical and other supply chains, other economic activity, public (and intra-governmental) confidence and order, • have redefined their personal paths, of least risk, towards cabinet removal of President Trump on 25th Amendment grounds of unfitness, • despite subsequent President Pence’s re-election being near-impossible after likely defection of Trump-loyalist voters.
III. The “Spook-ularity” tipping point will be the day when a majority of Democratic Party powerbrokers decide to publicly formalize the Democratic Party’s merger with the National Security State, as follows:A. “Going Big” is safer than going small when ceasing to disguise the fact that the Democratic establishment’s early March consolidation, behind Presidential candidacy of Joe Biden:
• sought solely to prevent nomination of Bernie Sanders, and• never sought to make fast-ailing Biden face the challenges of a general election and of governing.
B. In order to justify a bait-and-switch of the Presidential ticket nomination, the most effective campaign message will be “Repel Russian Invasions”-- which has been the increasingly dominant political theme, since mid-2016, of both the Democratic Party establishment and the Intelligence Community.
C. The Democratic Party is the only vehicle available for the Intelligence Community to continue its recent increases in direct electoral involvement, because “Agreement Incapability” caused Trump:
• first to reject, or not understand, the Intelligence Community’s 2016-2017 attempt to “make him an offer he couldn’t refuse,” and • second to recruit the Republican Party’s propaganda organs, voter base, and consequently most of its elected officials, into demonizing and (more importantly) demanding transparency from the Intelligence Community.
D. The Presidential nominee most suited to “Repel Russian Invasions” will be a decorated military combat and leadership veteran with bipartisan name recognition and academic credentials, of which the most obvious choice is David Petraeus:
• whose one year heading the CIA is Goldilocksian (just long enough to understand its structure and some of its culture, but not long enough to have a spooky image); and • who has been acting very much like a potential candidate, having:(i) reaffirmed need for U.S. military "presence” everywhere); (ii) broadened profile; and (iii) practiced evasive action against tough questions (see Feb. 26)• whose negatives are manageable:
(i) Petraeus’s post-government roles with mega-contractor KKR being an awkward target for the MIC-loving and petrodollar-loving Trump-Kushner clan, and (ii) Petraeus’s “leaks to paramour” scandal being mitigated by how mild this scandal now looks in contrast with Trump-era duelling leaks, and by his paramour’s own background in military intelligence (which actually gives Petreaus the option of hinting that he was “set up” by rogue agents of Obama, who was widely suspected of viewing Petraeus as a Presidential challenger).
E. The Vice-Presidential nominee most suited to be Petraeus’s running mate, in light of establishment rhetoric and turnout-related perspectives, would obviously be a minority woman, of which the most obvious choice is Condaleeza (“Condi”) Rice:
• whose positives include:(i) Condi’s age (66 on Nov 14 2020 and 73 before the 2028 primaries) which is old enough to minimize jealousy/resistance from the next generation of “her turn” hopefuls such as Harris, Abrams, Klobuchar, Warren and Gillibrand, not to mention “his turn” hopefuls such as Buttigieg, Booker, Newsom, Cuomo, Rep. Castro and Mayor Castro; and(ii) Condi’s “Russia expert” profile, which enables the anti-Trump ticket to double down on arguments that: (a) Trump is Putin blackmailee (and Trump delaying arms to Ukraine was strategically huge); (b) Bernie was a Putin dupe (and Tulsi was somewhere between Bernie and Trump on Putin association scale); (c) complaints about the Democratic Presidential (and Congressional) nomination process are Putin-sowed divisiveness; and (d) Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley (not to mention Pence and Trump himself) know comparatively little about pre-Trump foreign affairs.• whose main negatives have become positives:
(i) Rice’s association with 9/11 and Iraq invasion would fit a largely completed pivot, from passive to active, of the de facto Democratic establishment position that “no more apologies are needed for what we now call an error in the intelligence on Iraq WMD”, and (ii) Rice’s association with the Bush dynasty would reinforce the Democratic campaigning and fund-raising pitches that “all knowledgeable people are unified against the crazy ignoramus Trump, not to mention against the twin extremes of Pence and Bernie.”
F. The above reasons for nominating General Petraeus will be magnified if, as seems likely, the mood of the times requires a leader “respected by the military,” because, for example, federal troops are widely deployed:
• to prevent pandemic-panicked individuals-cum-mobs from overrunning or at least disrupting hospitals and other infrastructure; and/or• to minimize warlike group clashes involving over-armed Trump-loyalists, and/or other resistance to a perceived (perhaps correctly) one-way transition towards a super-national, or other fully non-democratic, governmental structure.