CNN's Chris Cillizza doesn't mention in this video that the Democrats are more likely to lose more seats than they pick up. Instead he says Republicans don't have enough money to win back a majority and that ether aren't enough opportunities. First off more Republicans have announced retirements (or are otherwise leaving) than Democrats-- 31 to 11. Open seats are usually the easiest to win, although many of the Republicans who are retiring are in deep red, gerrymandered districts. Here's the GOP House count with the PVIs (and the 2016 Trump presidential scores).
• George Holding, NC-02-- (PVI- re-districted), Clinton +24.4• Mark Walker, NC-06-- (PVI- re-districted), Clinton +21.5• Will Hurd, TX-23-- (PVI- R+1), Clinton +3.4• Peter King, NY-02-- (PVI- R+3), Trump +6.1• Sean Duffy, WI-07-- (PVI- R+8), Trump +20.4• Susan Brooks, IN-05-- (PVI- R+9), Trump +11.8• Paul Cook, CA-08-- (PVI- R+9), Trump +15.1• Rob Woodall, GA-07-- (PVI- R+9), Trump +6.3• Kenny Marchant, TX-24-- (PVI- R+9), Trump +6.2• Ted Yoho, FL-03-- (PVI- R+9), Trump +16.0• Pete Olson, TX-22-- (PVI- R+10), Trump +7.9• Greg Gianforte, MT-AL-- (PVI- R+11), Trump +20.2• Duncan Hunter, CA-50-- (PVI- R+11), Trump +14.8• Greg Walden, OR-02-- (PVI- R+11), Trump +20.1• Chris Collins, NY-27-- (PVI- R+11), Trump +24.5• Bill Flores, TX-17-- (PVI- R+12), Trump +17.5• Paul Mitchell, MI-10-- (PVI- R+13), Trump +32.2• Jim Sensenbrenner, WI-05-- (PVI- R+13), Trump +20.1• Bradley Byrne, AL-01-- (PVI- R+15), Trump +29.4• Martha Roby, AL-02-- (PVI- R+16), Trump +31.9%• John Shimkus, IL-15-- (PVI- R+21), Trump +46.2• Francis Rooney, FL-19-- (PVI- R+13), Trump +22.1• Mark Meadows, NC-11-- (PVI- R+14), Trump +17.3• Ralph Abraham, LA-05-- (PVI- R+15), Trump +29.4• Roger Marshall, KS-01-- (PVI- R+24), Trump +45.0• Rob Bishop, UT-01-- (PVI- R+26), Trump +27.3• Tom Graves, GA-14-- (PVI- R+27), Trump +52.9• Phil Roe, TN-01-- (PVI- R+28), Trump +57.0• Doug Collins, GA-09-- (PVI- R+31), Trump +58.5• Mike Conaway, TX-11-- (PVI- R+32), Trump +58.7• Mac Thornberry, TX-13-- (PVI- R+33), Trump +63.0
The only Democratic open seats that are competitive are IA-02, Dave Loebsack's which has a PVI of D+1 but was won by Trump by 4.1% and CA-25, Katie Hill's with an even PVI, won by Hillary by 6.7%. About half the open Republican seats are vaguely competitive, not counting the two redistricted seats in North Carolina, which are solid blue.Before we even know who the nominees are in most districts, it's foolish to try to predict which seats will flip from red to blue or blue to red. But we'll keep watching. Today Oklahoma progressive Tom Guild, going up an even worse conservative Blue Dog than Lipinski is-- Kendra Horn-- told us that "Marie’s upset victory over Lipinski is a stunning win and an object lesson. When good progressive candidates have adequate funding and strong support from leaders of the progressive movement, they are able to unseat blue dogs and other assorted conservatives in the vice grip of ruling political elitists. In many cases these corporate conservatives are better fits with the Republican or Libertarian Parties. They often give the establishment two bites at the apple. If the Republicans loses, they can then turn to corporate Democrats, who are in all but name philosophically Republicans. It took Marie several attempts and she came very close to winning the seat two years ago. She had the determination and commitment it takes to focus on a daunting task and successfully achieve her objective. We have strong and principled progressive candidates, many endorsed by Blue America, who match Marie in that they have the guts needed to slay the dragon, but they may not have adequate campaign funds and/or the widespread support of the recognized leaders and organizations in our progressive movement. We are family. As our movement matures and expands its reach to give maximum support to many quality and hard-working progressive candidates, we will achieve many amazing and shocking victories across America. Many of us pray for God to grant us patience as we exhort Him to please hurry!"Last night we were overjoyed to see IL-03 flip from purple to blue, as solid progressive Democrat Marie Newman beat Trump-friendly Blue Dog Dan Lipinski 48,677 (47.08%) to 36,677 (44.76%). As Tom said, it took Marie two cycles-- which is the normal way congressional districts are won. As of the February 26 FEC reporting deadline, Lipinski had spent $1,348,228 and Marie had spent $1,193,371. Thanks to everyone who chipped in through Blue America to make this fantastic win possible. Four more candidates on the verge-- who, like Marie, did well against conservative incumbents last time and look like they can win this time-- are J.D. Scholten (running against Steve King in Iowa), Mike Siegel (running against Michael McCaul in Texas), Audrey Denney (running against Doug LaMalfa in California) and Kara Eastman (running against Donald Bacon in Nebraska). They are all very much investing in-- for a better America-- and that's why the 2020 Blue America congressional thermometer is on the right. Please click on it and contribute what you can to one of them or all of them-- or to Marie.
