In 2016 Trump won Arizona's most populous county, Maricopa, in a relatively low turnout that yielded a 590,465 (49.1%) to 549,040 (45.7%) victory for Trump against Hillary. Two years-- and a lot of crazy lies and incompetence-- later, in the open-seat Senate election, the turn-out was much, much bigger and Maricopa flipped blue. Kyrsten Sinema beat Martha McSally 732,761 (51.0%) to 672,505 (46.8%). Usually presidential years are gigantically bigger than midterms. It was different in in 2016 and 2018. In 2016 there were two candidates who were seen as ultimately flawed and thousands of voters just sat it out, something that could happen again if the Democrats are stupid enough to nominate senile fool Joe Biden. In 2018, both candidates were also complete crap but the danger that Trump is, was already starting to manifest itself and voters in the county moved to put a check on Trump by electing a Democrat to the previously Republican-held seat. It wasn't an election about Sinema or McSally; it was all about Trump. (This is, of course, Biden's only chance to prevail-- that voters will be so negative about Trump, that they will ignore his own not-quite-as-bad flaws.)On the same day in 2018, the gubernatorial election, which was not an especially Trump-impactied election, Maricopa voted for Republican Doug Ducey against Democrat David Garcia, 800,210 (55.9%) to 603,055 (42.1%).Maricopa County includes all of 5 congressional districts and a part of several others. These are the districts that are entirely within Maricopa County and how they voted in 2018. All incumbents were reelected and the one open seat stayed blue:
• AZ-05• Andy Biggs (R)- 186,037 (59.4%)• Joan Greene (D)- 127,027 (40.6%)• AZ-06
• David Schweikert (R)- 173,140 (55.2%)• Anita Malik (D)- 140,559 (44.8%)• AZ-07
• Ruben Gallego (D)- 113,044 (85.8%)• Gary Swing (Green)- 18,706 (14.2%)• AZ-08
• Debbie Lesko (R)- 168,835 (55.5%)• Hiral Tipirneni (D)- 135,569 (44.5%)• AZ-09
• Greg Stanton (D)- 159,583 (61.1%)• Steve Ferrara (R)- 101,662 (38.9%)
Why bring this up now? Arizona is considered one of the most key swing states for 2020. Trump is underwater in the state and Martha McSally, who was appointed to the other Senate seat, is looking extremely vulnerable and seems to be losing in early polling match-ups with putative Democrat Mark Kelly. And in Maricopa County, there's a local election that will have a ton of attention nationally. On Sunday, convicted criminal and ex-Sheriff, pardoned by Trump 2 years ago, Joe Arpaio announced he's running for his old job again. "'Watch out world! We are back!' Arpaio, 87, said in a statement in which he promised to reinstate the extreme measures that made him famous, like housing immigrants in outdoor tents in the 100-degrees-plus temperatures of the Phoenix area. Arpaio was defeated for re-election to what would have been a record seventh term as sheriff in November 2016, shortly after he was charged with contempt of court for having ignored a federal judge's order to stop arresting immigrants solely on suspicion that they were in the country illegally."
• Paul Penzone (D)- 861,757 (56.4%)• Joe Arpaio (R)- 665,581 (43.6%)
Wow! Recall that Hillary got 549,040 votes in Maricopa County that day, 312,717 fewer than Penzone. (And Trump got around 100,000 votes fewer than Arpaio!)
Last year, Arpaio lost a Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate to Rep. Martha McSally. Arpaio reveled in his reputation as America's toughest sheriff, which led him to be the target of several civil rights lawsuits. He boasted that:• He forced inmates to wear pink underwear.• He fed inmates only twice a day with a bland log called "Nutraloaf," which other prisons serve as a disciplinary measure.• He subjected inmates to an in-house radio station that played patriotic music and opera for 20 hours a week. He called the station KJOE.In 2008 and 2010, a federal judge ruled that Arpaio's jails violated the constitutional rights of inmates when it came to medical care.Arpaio was also famous for housing prisoners in outdoor tents that he himself called concentration camps, where inmates complained that fans were inoperative and that their shoes melted.He was reported to have responded to the complaints by saying, "It's 120 degrees in Iraq, and the soldiers are living in tents, and they didn't commit any crimes, so shut your mouths."Alessandra Soler, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona, on Sunday called Arpaio a "racist" who should "never hold public office again.""When Joe Arpaio talks about 'those who break the law,' he should be referring to himself," Soler said, adding: "President Trump might've pardoned him, but those who had families and communities destroyed by his unlawful tactics have not."In his announcement on Sunday, Arpaio lamented that "the last four years have proven to be a time of lost opportunities to continue the kind of tough policing this county needs."And he warned that his enemies would do their worst to make sure he isn't re-elected."During the past several years, his opponents, activists and political figures on the Left, have utilized slanderous attacks on him through the fake and biased news media to try and keep him from being heard, but these efforts have failed," the statement said. "However, he expects these attacks will continue in full force, even more so with today's announcement."Arpaio's opponents are likely to include Jerry Sheridan, who strongly supported Arpaio as his chief deputy for the last six years Arpaio was sheriff.Sheridan announced in February that he is also seeking the Republican nomination to challenge Sheriff Paul Penzone, who defeated Arpaio with 56 percent of the vote in 2016. He said Sunday that he would remain in the race."My focus has always been on getting the bad guys, not headlines," Sheridan said in a statement, according to NBC affiliate KPNX of Phoenix. "We need a professional and proven lawman to win this office back and the voters have already made it clear they will not vote for Joe."