Ipsos did a new national poll for Reuters. I just want to focus on respondents who described themselves as independents (12%) rather than Democrats (43%) or Republicans (37%). It is worth noting, however, that while 70% of Democrats and 74% of Republicans say they are completely certain they will vote in 2020, just 48% of independents said they would and, in fact, 18% of independents said they are certain they will not vote. This is how detached self-described independents are from American politics: they are far less familiar with leading politicians than either Democrats or Republicans. For example, while just 1% of Democrats and 2% of Republicans say they haven't heard anything about Biden, 7% of independents say they haven't. 13% of them haven't heard about Elizabeth Warren. 4% haven't heard about Bernie. 29% haven't heard about Mayo Pete (although neither have 16% of Dems nor 21% of Republicans). 15% of independents (and 9% of Dems and 8% of Republicans) haven't heard anything about Bloomberg.So who do these independents like least among the possible next presidents? These percentages represent "very unfavorable," "somewhat unfavorable" and "lean towards unfavorable" responses.
• Trump- 71%• Bloomberg- 65% (43% of Dems also have a negative impression of him)• Elizabeth- 58%• Mayo- 56%• Biden- 51%• Bernie- 50%
Just looking at "very favorable," independents rank Trump and Bernie 10% each, Biden 8%, Mayo 7%, Elizabeth 4% and Bloomberg 3%. Asked who they would vote for in a Democratic caucus or primary, Bernie came out on top among independent voters-- and by a lot:
• No one- 31%• Undecided- 19%• Bernie- 14%• Elizabeth- 7%• Biden- 6%• Mayo- 5%• Yang-5%• Tulsi- 4%• Booker- 4%• Bloomberg- 3%• Mayo- 3%
When polled on which candidate is best on a series of issues, Bernie came out on top for immigration (14% to Biden in second place at 8%), healthcare (21% to Elizabeth in second place at 14% and Biden down at 10%), the environment (15% to Biden in second place at 9%), and the economy (16% to Biden in second place at 11%).Asked who was offering a new and different voice among Democrats, independents also picked Bernie:
• Bernie- 17%• Mayo- 14%• Elizabeth- 11%• Biden- 8%• Mayo- 5%• Booker- 5%• Kamala- 4%
There'll be a few Republicans-- maybe even more than a few-- who vote for whichever Democrat is nominated, but most Republicans are going to vote for Trump. And there may well be as many Democrats (racists, xenophobes, the rich, greedy people) who vote for Trump as Republicans who don't. Let's call it a wash and say all the Republicans will vote for Trump and all the Democrats will vote for whomever the Democrats nominate. That leaves it up to independents. In 2016, independent voters swung towards Trump. This cycle they appear to hate him and are prepared to vote against him. And if Democrats want to win in 2020-- the best way to do that is to nominate the candidate who independent voters like most: Bernie.
