After college, a whole lot of friends of mine chose to move out of NYC and raise their families in the northern Hudson Valley. The ones who moved up to Dutchess, Ulster and Columbia wound up in a quintessential swing district, NY-19. The district is 89.7% white and the median household income is $53,769, a bit below the state's $55,246. This area used to be part of the Republican heartland of the Northeast and even a very successful local boy, Franklin Roosevelt, never carried the area in any of his presidential runs! Even George Bush won the district both times. More recently, as the Republican Party has shown itself to be a Confederate Party based on hatred and bigotry, it has become safer for Democrats in national elections.Obama beat McCain 53-45% and four years later beat Romney 52-46%. The PVI is D+1, one of only 5 D+ anything congressional districts in the entire country with a Republican incumbent. And in the case of NY-19 that incumbent is literally the only genuine moderate left in the Republican Party: Chris Gibson. In the current session of Congress (2013-14), Gibson's 40.00 ProgressivePunch crucial vote score is more in line with progressive policies than 8 Democrats (Matheson, Barrow, McIntyre, Barber, Peterson, Gallego, Sinema and Owens) and virtually identical to his next door neighbor to the south, Sean Patrick Maloney. Dullards at the DCCC can call him a teabagger all they want, voters are aware that his record is more nuanced than the way their cookie cutter attacks portray him. And more nuanced than their cookie cutter candidate, Sean Eldridge, tries-- unsuccessfully-- to portray him.DMF, polling for Amtrak, released a nonpartisan survey for NY-19 this week. Beyond the questions about Amtrak, however, is a glimpse about how voters see politics in this very bellwether, swing district. Let's start with who they know, who they don't know, who they like and who they dislike:Despite having written himself a check for $1,340,000 and having already spent $962,959, 45% of the voters have never heard of Eldridge and another 35% have no opinion of him one way or the other. His favorability is 10% as opposed to Gibson's 48%. Eldridge was recruited by Steve Israel because he and his husband, Chris Hughes of Facebook fame, are such generous contributors to the party. But Israel has done nothing for the campaign other than give Eldridge disastrous advice that will prevent him from ever being elected to anything-- and sending weekly care packages for his staff of mostly unappreciated bagels and lox every Friday.The district doesn't seem blue enough to throw our a decent congressman for a political unknown-- even a rich one who's spreading around the money among local entrepreneurs. Obama's favorable/unfavorable is 38/57%, Cuomo's is 41/51% and the Democratic Party is even more disliked than the Republican Party-- 41/49% for the GOP and 41/50 for the Dems. When asked if the election were held today 29% say they'd vote for Eldridge and 56% say they'd vote for Gibson. 15% haven't made up their minds yet. 50% of the voters in the district want to see the Republicans maintain a majority in Congress and only 41% want to see a Democratic takeover.Delusion swept Eldridge headquarters when they saw the poll, claiming it's not that bad and pointing out that Gibson is "underwater" in terms of favorability. No one in the country likes their congressmen this cycle but, in reality, Ginson is one of the least disliked. Sure, he's not quite at 50% but his favorable/unfavorable rating is 48/16%. His reelection prospects seem pretty solid.That said, Eldridge has a couple of things going for him. He has $2,106,220 cash on hand-- and has access to unlimited amounts of personal wealth-- while Gibson only has $1,910,550 on hand. (The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is in big for Gibson though, and has already spent $350,000 on his behalf. It's unlikely the DCCC will spend more than the $9,136 that Israel has already spent on Eldridge, presumably for the bagels and lox.) There are, however, two very populist measures that could work for Eldridge… if he was a populist candidate instead of a Steve Israel candidate. Take into account the anti-Democratic Party mood in the district and then look at how these same respondents answered these two questions:
• Many in Congress are saying that the only way to truly cut federal spending is through entitlement reform. One proposal would increase the age one can get Medicare, from age 65, to age 67. Do you approve or disapprove increasing the age one can receive Medicare?Approve raising age…………... 24%Disapprove raising age………. 70%Unsure………………………………….. 6%• Others have suggested to cut federal spending by increasing the minimum age one can receive reduced Social Security benefits, from the current age of 62, to age 64. Do you approve or disapprove increasing the age one can begin receiving Social Security?
Approve raising age………………... 34%Disaprove raising age………………. 61%Unsure………………………………………... 5%
Tossing out the losing Steve Israel playbook and going the populist route could win this seat for Eldridge. Sticking to the failed DCCC formula isn't going to even get Eldridge to the 47% that Julian Schreibman got against Gibson in 2012. He'll do better than the 29% the poll is predicting… but not that much better. Schreibman won Sullivan and Ulster counties and came close in Dutchess and Otsego. Other than squeaking to a win in deep blue Ulster, I'd be surprised if Eldridge's centrist message gets him anywhere in these counties and he's not going to make any headway at all in Rensselaer, Greene, Broome or Delaware-- especially in light of the findings of a new CBS poll released this morning that show that among those who say they are more enthusiastic about voting, Republicans lead 47-40%.Greg Sargent of the Washington Post asked CBS’s polling team for a more specific breakdown of who's fired up about voting and who isn't. Bad news for the Democrats, especially those following the DCCC corporatist game plan, a proven loser.
• Among unmarried women, only 29 percent are more enthusiastic about voting, while 57 percent are less enthusiastic. By contrast, married women (who are more likely to vote Republican) are more enthusiastic by 45-42.• Among nonwhites, only 31 percent are more enthusiastic about voting, while 56 percent are less enthusiastic.• Among voters aged 18-29, only 35 percent are more enthusiastic about voting, while 45 percent are less enthusiastic.It’s still too early to read too much into these numbers. But findings like these bear watching to see if we will again see those core Democratic groups drop off in a midterm year. Those groups are key pillars of the emerging Democratic coalition that appears increasingly formidable in national elections, but their tendency not to show up in midterms is also central to continued Republican dominance in Congressional races despite the GOP’s national demographic challenges.
If the DCCC can't beat Chris Gibson in NY-19-- which it appears they can't-- this is going to be another really bad cycle for Steve Israel
