For past few months, particularly since the finalization of the US-Iran nuke deal, we had been observing increasing West-ward tilt in Iran’s foreign policy. With Iran signing deals worth billions of dollars with a number of European companies and further lobbying for lifting financial sanctions the U.S. has not yet lifted, it was becoming obvious that Iran is trying to re-capture the markets it had previously lost during the era of sanctions. While Iran continues to struggle to revive its economy by establishing its relations with Europe, developments in its own backyard have once again forced it into reviewing its foreign policy orientation and tap into the most recent development: Russia-Turkey normalization. For Iran, strong ties with its neighbours, Russia and Turkey, is significant now when a Saudi-Israeli regional axis to contain it is in the making and there is uncertainty about the implementation of the nuclear deal under a new American president. Hence, Iran’s U-turn to its backyard and gives it the attention it deserves.
The Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s visit to St. Petersburg on August 9 and the surprised one-day trip to Turkey by Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on August 12 have strongly indicated the phenomenal transformation taking place in the Middle East’s power dynamic. While the full potential of the Turkish-Russian rapprochement will take time to emerge in geopolitical terms on various levels, the proverbial tip of the iceberg suggests that dynamics of the conflict in Syria are already changing and that the pressure has risen to an extent where the U.S. president has been forced into sending a high-profile political mission to Turkey to “bridge the gap” that has emerged subsequent to the failed coup-attempt in Turkey and the cold-shouldering it received from its NATO allies in the aftermath of Erdogan’s crack down on its political opponents related to Gulen.
That Zarif’s visit had a single-point, Russo-Turkish, agenda is evident from the emphasis he placed on the issue during his visit. During the press conference in Turkey, he hailed the improvement of Russia-Turkey relations and their new efforts to stem the conflict in Syria and said, “We also have great ties with Russia on the Syrian issue and we believe that all parties must cooperate to provide security and peace and stop the conflicts”, adding that “We are ready to co-operate with both Turkey and Syria on this issue.”
That Iran is set to bridge the slight gap that had occurred with Russia and that Iran is tapping into this development to rescue itself out of the Syrian quagmire is evident from the fact that Zarif, prior to the journey he took to Ankara on Friday, held a wide-ranging conversation on phone with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov regarding regional developments, “including providing external support to achieve a settlement in Syria,” according to the Russian foreign ministry readout.
While commenting on the Russian-Turkish reset and Zarif’s talks in Ankara, The Tehran Times newspaper, which reflects official thinking, took note of the new power dynamic:
“As Ankara moves toward Iran and Russia, there is hope that a new strategic triangle is in the making, and in due time it may begin to cause considerable influence not only on Syria, but on the entire Middle East region. Together, Iran and Turkey as powerful and central forces in the Middle East can shift a great force behind the events and work for shared good. Although it is still a fledgling, the new friendship can create spectacular scenes of achievement that can alter the makeup of the Middle East and hopefully result in actual improvement of security situation in the restive area”.
Interestingly, a commentary in the Fars news agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, lost no time to speculate that Iran too might be included in the newly established Russian-Turkish mechanism on Syria.
That a triangle is emerging is also evident from the fact that Iran has started to facilitate Russian jets flying from its bases and target ISIS in Syria. This has happened only 4 four days Zarif’s visit to Turkey and appears to be more than a coincidence and rooted in regional developments happening today and likely to happen in the near future.
Tuesday’s (August 16) mission is thought to be the first time Russian aircraft have flown missions from Iran since Moscow entered the war, and potentially marks a major development with regard to Russia’s military presence in the Middle East; while, for Iran, granting foreign forces access to its territory for the first time in four decades was quite a brave decision motivated by strategic necessity and corollary to the alliance it has tapped into strengthen its position and protect its own interest.
In this context, indeed, any Russian-Turkish-Iranian convergence constitutes a geopolitical setback to the US’ regional allies in the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia. From the Saudi perspective, if Turkey rolls back its intervention in Syria, the war is lost for all practical purposes – although, in practical terms, it is still in a position to use the Jordanian route to supply the rebel groups.
Against this backdrop, U.S. vice president’s visit to Turkey carries special significance. It is coming at a time when Turkish-Russian commission on Syria is working on establishing common points of interest for both countries. With its results being awaited keenly in Washington and other global capitals, the way Iran has upped its role in the region following the failed coup-attempt in Turkey and the August 9 meeting between Erdogan and Putin, followed by Zarif’s visit, does indicate the possible outcome.
Joe Biden’s visit to Turkey, which is the first visit by an American dignitary after July 15 and stands little chances of meaningful success, is aimed at reversing the damage done by none other than the Americans themselves. Ironically, the triangle emerging is a result of American policies and it is America that is having to reverse it. Ankara, on its part, seems too cautious at this stage to get trapped into the U.S’ grand strategy of regional domination. For it, just as for Iran, the need for regionalizing foreign policy orientation has never been greater than it is today.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.