While observing the reaction of the Korean society to the victory of D. Trump in the Presidential elections, a great grief can be seen – the political circles of South Korea supported Clinton owing to Trump’s desire to increase the charge for maintaining the American contingent in the Republic of Korea as the bare minimum. This contingent currently includes 28.5 thousand military personnel, F-16 destroyers, the Patriot anti-aircraft weapon system, and other types of offensive and defensive weapons. South Korea will need 16.3 billion dollars to replace them and given the economic crisis and political challenges, it will be difficult for Seoul to find that kind of money.
As soon as the US elections result was announced, Park Geun-hye congratulated Trump on his victory and noted that the American nation had expressed confidence in his leadership skills and huge successful experience in various fields. The head of the Republic of Korea also highlighted that Seoul would maintain close cooperation with Washington aimed at global stability and prosperity. The very same day, on November 9, the Korean President’s Administration conducted an emergency session of the National Security Council. Park Geun-hye ordered that emergency response measures regarding the economy and security be prepared amid the new environment.
On November 10, the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Korea held a session to assess the results of the Presidential elections in the USA. As a result, the military officials confirmed their position regarding continued cooperation with the USA on the rotational deployment of the US strategic forces in the Republic of Korea, the THAAD ABM mobile system, and the transfer of operational control over its military forces to Seoul in time of war. In addition, it was decided to create a Working Group on Cooperation with the USA in defence policy aimed at maintaining the strong union between the Republic of Korea and the USA.
The first result of this Group’s work was a report delivered on November 14, which states that the US government may demand an increase in the expenses paid by South Korea for maintaining the American military contingent as well as improving the capabilities of its own army. The former policy of Barack Obama will be replaced with more active sanction pressure that allows dialogue, however. In this context, the American party should receive explanation of what measures are taken by the Republic of Korea to ensure the comfortable presence of the US contingent and it should be specified that the armed forces of the USA are contributing to peace and stability in the region. The expenses of the Republic of Korea for the maintenance of the US contingent in terms of GDP share are higher than that in Japan and Germany.
A possible reconsideration of free trade conditions has also been noted. The Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Yoo Il-ho said that Donald Trump’s victory in the elections could provide the South Korean economy with new opportunities. South Korean companies might participate in the development of infrastructure and industry in the USA. Thus, the Korean government has started preparing to work with the new American government by conducting a detailed monitoring of Trump’s economic program.
Commenting on the authorities’ activities, the Korean media write that it is difficult to assess Donald Trump’s policy regarding the North. One day he called Kim Jong-un a maniac, and the other day he didn’t rule out possible dialogue with Pyongyang, regarding solution to the North Korean nuclear issue.
As for the potential tense situations in relations between the Republic of Korea and the USA that require reconsideration, they concern more than Korea’s share of the expenses for the maintenance of the American military contingent. Currently, South Korea covers half of them, but Trump has expressed the opinion that the Republic of Korea should take on 100% of the expenses and the funds spent by the USA on the security of its allies should be used for its own needs.
In addition, he has also spoken about the possible nuclearization of the Republic of Korea and Japan. Despite the fact that the radical conservators of the Republic of Korea are already discussing such a variant, Seoul is against it, maintaining that it would deteriorate regional stability.
In addition, Donald Trump believes that the conditions of the free trade agreement between the Republic of Korea and the USA are not equal and deprive Americans of jobs. He has announced the need to reconsider the corresponding agreements. All these facts could not help but raise concerns among traditional US allies.
The lack of direct communication channels with Donald Trump’s team is also generating fears. Hoping for Clinton’s success, the South Korean politicians did not establish relations with her opponent. Thus, the necessity to make preliminary preparations for cooperation with the new US government is felt as never before.
However, there have been no sharp changes in policy observed so far. On November 09, 2016, during the previous briefing, White House spokesperson Joshua Earnest noted that the Administration of Donald Trump would likely stick to the policy of maintaining strong relations between Washington and Seoul. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have been working to strengthen relations between the USA and the Republic of Korea. Moreover, any stand-out problems in relations between the two countries (for example, under Park Chung-hee and Carter) arose with greater frequency under the Democrats.
The next day, on November 10, during a telephone conversation with the President of the Republic of Korea Park Geun-hye, Donald Trump confirmed Washington’s commitment to the union with Seoul and provision of South Korea’s security. According to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, over the course of the ten minute talk, Donald Trump announced that Washington would certainly continue to cooperate with Seoul on security issues.
Some American experts also believe that there will be no changes. For example, the former Chairman of the United States House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, Pieter Hoekstra, believes that the new government headed by Donald Trump will maintain strong relations with the Republic of Korea. Hoekstra has highlighted that Seoul and Washington currently enjoy close economic and security cooperation, and South Korea believes that this statement is aimed at defusing concerns. Of course, according to KBS World Radio, Trump’s forceful statements are a reflection of his attitude. Perhaps, it was only linked to his desire to gain the support of a large number of voters, however. South Korean experts hope that Trump’s strong statements will not be implemented in the new government’s actual policy and they will stick to more restrained and reasonable policy.
The South Korean opposition is of the same opinion. The faction leader of the opposition Democratic Party Toburo Woo Sang-ho has announced that American lawmakers do not want changes in the relations between the Republic of Korea and the USA, thus, the Koreans should not worry about Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections. The leader of the opposition People’s Party Park Jie-won has also noted that Donald Trump will conduct policy from a practical point of view and the Republic of Korea may enjoy some benefits.
The author is also inclined to think that radical changes in the two countries’ relations will not take place and has expressed this point of view many times. Therefore, we will only return to this topic if a serious reason for concern arises.
Konstantin Asmolov, Ph.D. in History, Chief Research Fellow at the Center for Korean Studies of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
