Stormy weather aheadDemocrats targeted 2 Republican incumbents this cycle, Jason Lewis in the suburban district (MN-02) south of the Twin Cities and Erik Paulsen in the suburbs (MN-03) west, north and south of Minneapolis. They flipped both seats, each of which had been won twice by Obama. In 2016 Trump edged Hillary by a point in MN-02 and Hillary obliterated Trump by nearly 10 points in MN-03.
It would have made more sense for Matheson and McAdams to run as Republicans[Note: This post is for progressives, not for garden variety Democrats or corporatists.] There’s one district in Utah-- the 4th-- that looks winnable for a Democrat. The last Democrat from the district, Jim Matheson, was an ultra-reactionary Blue Dog who made a career out of voting with the Republicans on crucial matters.
Florida is in the news— and at least it isn’t a hurricane. I think the first time we rang an alarm bell about Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s crooked crony, Broward County elections chief Brenda Snipes, we were picking up on a Politico report by Marc Caputo. In the 2016 cycle, she worked to steal the election for DWS, as sure as DWS worked to steal the presidential primary for Hillary. Snipes broke the law by destroying ballots cast in the tight primary election between Wasserman Schultz and Tim Canova after Canova sued to get access to the ballots.
Winning smileAlthough Maine’s largely rural second congressional district voted for Obama both times he ran, in 2016 it was anything but Hillary country. First Bernie wiped her out in the state caucuses 64.3% to 35.3%. And in the 2nd it was even worse for her. Bernie took every county, Oxford with over 70%.
Forget for a moment about all the Republicans who gave up their seats voluntarily to escape TrumpWorld or to avoid ignominious defeat. Just look at the ones who stood and fought— and were defeated. Or, in the eyes of the returning congressional Republicans… colleagues who were vanquished. For them these weren't just names or even just friends... this is a warning that they could be next:
Actual photo of the man who sank gerrymandering to new depthsWhen Republicans in Texas gained control of the state legislature, then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay went home to work with them on creating new Republican seats where Democratic seats existed before— and in the middle of the decade, no less, not satisfied to wait for the 2010 census.
Will Orange County be a Republican-free zone?Currently there are 9 House races considered too close to call or in recount. This is the list and my predictions as to how they will likely turn out. Asterisks indicate incumbents and bolding indicates likely winners:CA-10- Central Valley
• Josh Harder (D)- 90,263 (50.9%)• Jeff Denham* (R)- 86,956 (49.1%)
CA-39- Orange County
Democratic campaigns are almost always eager to be added to the DCCC's Red to Blue list. Only novices think that being on that list means the DCCC will automatically contribute money towards the race. The DCCC-- and Pelosi's House Majority PAC-- spend millions of dollars towards some of those candidates' races, but not towards most of them.
