The news about the fifth nuclear test in the DRRK have overshadowed some earlier reports on the development of the North Korean missile program, yet the latter should hardly be disregarded because of that.
Let’s start with the talk about North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) On August 30, participants of the UN Conference on Disarmament in Geneva condemned the recent launch of a DPRK missile, while stressing the fact that North Korea should be held accountable for its provocative actions. At the meeting the United States pointed out that North Korean missile launches are a threat to civil air and sea transportation in the region. Pyongyang actions have also been condemned by European, Central and South American representatives, while Spain expressed its willingness to seek cooperation in applying extensive pressure on the North Korean foreign trade.
At the same time we’ve witnessed the start of discussions about the possible construction of the first North Korean nuclear submarine, but as of now they gravitate towards allegations made by anonymous sources and scandalous civil bodies like NKIS. According to those claims, the DPRK has been building a total of two nuclear submarines that are of great strategic importance for Pyongyang. One is being based on the Russian submarine that has allegedly been transported to North Korea while the other is said to be a purely North Korean brainchild. The same NKIS has “predicted” that by the end of this year the DPRK will be able to start mass-producing its SLBM. However, according to the employee of American Science Aerospace Corporation John Schilling, it will take Pyongyang two more years to achieve this level of technology. Although the launch of the North Korean SLBM shows a more rapid progress of North Korean scientists than it was originally anticipated, it does not mean that the DPRK will pursue the adoption of these missiles for military use in the nearest future.
Under these circumstances the naval forces of South Korea and the United States agreed to share information on marine underwater environment of the territorial waters of the DPRK to effectively counter the growing threat. It should be noted that the study of underwater environments is an important aspect of any naval operation, since it allows officers to use sonars more effectively, which facilitates submarine spotting and tracking. The agreement was reached during the second meeting of the joint committee on anti-submarine warfare, which was attended by the South Korean Commander of Naval Operations, Lee Ki-sik and the commander of the United States Seventh Fleet, Vice Admiral Joseph P. Aucoin.
To effectively hunt North Korean submarines Seoul is planning to build its own nuclear submarine, which, according to several South Korean military and political representatives are to be built in the nearest future. Yet, it will take at least two years for South Korea to build its own nuclear submarines. Moreover, this development is heavily opposed by the US, Russia and China, that is why Seoul is negotiating the chance to rent US submarine for such missions.
It should be also noted that South Korea is planning to spend up to 1.4 billion dollars on the development of the Kill Chain missile defense system that is designed for launching preventive strikes against military facilities on the territory of North Korea, along with the development of its own missile defense system KAMD. Thus, Seoul is putting a particular emphasis on its deterrence capabilities, while increasing its military spendings next year by 4%, which means that South Korea is to spend 36 billion dollars on defense alone in 2017.
The situation was aggravated further by the statement made by the direction of East Asia Nonproliferation Program (EANP) at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Jeffrey Lewis that underlined on August 28 that the launches of North Korean SLBM might not be countered by the THAAD, since they can be made outside the effective range of this antimissile system, so there’s a diplomatic solution to be pursued, which is always preferable to a new arms race.
Meanwhile, it turned out that Pyongyang was celebrating the achievements of its scientists, transforming them into national heroes overnight. Within two days after the launch local media sources showed videos and pictures of the launches and then, four days later, all the engineers that were involved in the development and construction of SLBM missiles were brought to Pyongyang for propaganda purposes. There they honored the statues of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and visited cultural and entertainment objects created by the order of the current leader, Kim Jong-un. When the delegation was leaving Pyongyang a total of 100 thousand people was assembled to celebrate the departure of the national heroes.
However, just as the celebration came to a closure Pyongyang carried out a number of new launches. Less than a week ago North Korea launched three Rodong type ballistic missiles in the direction of the East Sea. The launches were made immediately after the talks that South Korean president Park Geun-hye held with her Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, that were devoted to the discussion of Pyongyang’s missile program.
The armed forces of South Korea announced that a number of medium-range ballistic missiles was launched by the DPRK. However, when the Korean Central Television and Korean Central News Agency published the footage of the launches, it became clear that a different type of missiles was used, presumably Scud-ER that is known in North Korea as Hwaseong-7. Rumors about the construction of those missiles circulated in the media all through the 2000s and here it is being launched.
The South Korean government has immediately condemned new launches. The representative of its Foreign Ministry underlined that those launches is a provocation that demonstrates that North Korea poses a serious threat to neighboring countries. The Government of Japan has also protested the launches, while Prime Minister Shinzo Abe instructed its military advisers to monitor the situation closely to ensure the safety of Japan’s ships and maintain readiness in case of further provocations.
In turn, the US House of Representatives unanimously adopted an anti-North Korean resolution. The document emphasizes the need to strengthen cooperation with South Korea and Japan to resolve the situation with the North Korean nuclear crisis. In addition, in order to strengthen the defense of its partners Washington is planning to conduct joint military exercises in the region and deploy its THAAD missile defense system in Japan as well.
The UN Security Council members unanimously condemned Pyongyang for yet another test of its missiles. This was stated in a press statement, published on 6 September, following closed consultations arranged at the request of the three countries – South Korea, the United States and Japan. In the statement missile tests are called a flagrant violation of the resolutions previously adopted, therefore, the DPRK is urged to comply with the previous resolutions and abandon its use of force policy. In addition, the statement called on all the UN member states to redouble their efforts to fully apply anti-North Korean sanctions that were introduced by the previous resolutions, especially the one that goes under the number 2270. The parties have yet again expressed regret that instead of meeting the needs of its citizens the North Korean regime directs all resources on the development of ballistic missiles, therefore Pyongyang was warned that the situation in the region would be closely monitored by the UN for appropriate countermeasures to be taken in the event of its aggravation.
It all sounds pretty scary. The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already announced the “statement was supported by Russia and China, therefore it’s a serious warning for Pyongyang.” However, no resolution was adopted which means that after the talks the parties decided to resort to a formal condemnation since they have reached no agreement, though, the overall situation may push the UN Security Council to demonstrate unity in the future.
It turns out that North Korea now has (according to its statements and the estimates made by experts) the nuclear warhead and the missile to mount it on. And it’s pretty much cools hot head or, on the contrary, inflames the advocates of a preemptive strike. But this way or another, if one is planning a military conflict with Pyongyang he will be forced to take this fact into consideration.
Nevertheless, with the pace Pyongyang is advancing in this area, we may reach to the situation, when the news about North Korean missile launches would not differ from the news about the launches made by any other country. For those who remain concerned about the North Korean launches it would be beneficial to learn how many launches India and Pakistan made in the period from 1998 to 2016. And those two states have a far more serious nuclear potential, and the tension between them remains pretty high.
Konstantin Asmolov, Ph.D, Chief Research Fellow of the Center for Korean Studies, Institute of Far Eastern Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.”
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