Keep an eye on Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway state in Moldova. On Monday, Dmitri Trenin, one of Russia’s best-known foreign policy analysts and a man with good Kremlin antennae, tweeted: “Growing concern in Moscow that Ukraine and Moldova will seek to squeeze Transnistria hard, provoking conflict with Russia.” On Tuesday, a columnist in the pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper warned that Russia “seriously faces the prospect of a repeat of the [2008] situation” – when it went to war with Georgia – “this time around Transnistria”
What sparked the tensions was a May 21 vote in Ukraine’s parliament to suspend military co-operation with Russia. That included a 1995 agreement giving Russia military transit rights across Ukraine to reach Transnistria, which borders Ukraine’s Odessa region.
Russian peacekeepers have been deployed in the unrecognised statelet since its brief war for independence from ex-Soviet Moldova in 1992, and Russia has a base there with about 1,350 soldiers and heavy weapons.
Losing access via Ukraine means Russia must resupply its base by air through Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, and across Moldovan territory.
Moscow complains Moldova has recently detained and deported several Russian soldiers. Mr Trenin alleged to the FT, moreover, that Ukraine had deployed S-300 air defence systems near the border.
A senior Ukrainian foreign ministry official insists there is no Transnistria blockade, only a “political decision to suspend military-technical-co-operation with Russia because of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. This is a matter of principle for us.”
No blockade, merely a suspension of military technical cooperation? Which, quite obviously equals a blockade. Weasel wording can't hide the facts.
Transnistria’s foreign minister Nina Shtanski alleged on Monday that Ukraine had placed troops along the border – which Kiev denies. And Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko’s unorthodox appointment at the weekend of ex-Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili – a bête noire for Moscow – as governor of the Odessa region has added an element of psycho-drama. At least two Russian newspapers speculated on Tuesday that Mr Saakashvili’s task was to maintain the “blockade” of neighbouring Transnistria, and even act as “provocateur” to start a new war.
"Misha's Moment" Saakashvili's appointment designed to provoke Russia
But Ukraine’s ending of Russian military access to Transnistria – however understandable – does pose a logistical problem for Moscow. And it is a reminder, in the new climate of east-west antagonism, of just how many potential flashpoints lurk in the zone between the two.
It surely seems that provoking Russia is the name of the NATO game. And a very deadly game this could be. So, why does NATO keep pushing the boundaries. NATO is looking more and more maniacal. "affected with or suggestive of madness"Flashback to May 05/2015Moldova: Jihadi Stop & 1 Billion Missing Dollars- Advancing destabilization
1 Billion missing dollars & jihadis moving from Syria via Turkey into Moldova...
" I suspect that money made it's way to what appears to be an impending covert operation, perhaps into Odessa? Crimea? Russia? Via Georgia and the Pankisi Gorge?"
Don't Miss from earlier today too!